Linear-Clarity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$94

Unrealized P&L

-$24

Hit rate

55.8%

Resolved

Trades

134

lifetime

Volume

$2.11K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 08-08 17:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Other

43% 24% -$189

Politics

32% 30% +$148

Crypto

13% 38% -$61

Sports

12% 60% +$18

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+128	$31	3¢	$4	-$26	08-08 17:26
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-384	-$10	1¢	$-3	+$7	05-20 12:22
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+11	$5	8¢	$1	-$4	06-23 15:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	2	$260	254	254	+0	Yes	+$244	02-28 12:40
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	4	$123	206	78	+128	open	—	08-08 17:26
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	2	$109	243	243	+0	No	+$45	02-08 13:22
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during the 2026 state of the union address 556	3	$105	352	0	+352	No	-$105	02-25 00:34
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during wef address on january 21	2	$105	85	85	+0	Yes	+$65	01-21 15:00
will one battle after another win best cinematography at the 98th academy awards	2	$90	100	100	+0	No	+$54	03-09 16:36
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$80	61	61	+0	Yes	+$39	03-01 00:29
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$71	52	52	+0	Yes	+$29	01-31 01:32
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	2	$64	135	135	+0	Yes	+$1	01-15 23:15
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$53	250	250	+0	No	-$46	01-29 12:45
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by march 13 955 782 768	2	$48	39	39	+0	Yes	+$28	03-12 18:51
will paul thomas anderson win best director at the 98th academy awards	2	$44	24	24	+0	Yes	+$2	03-16 00:30
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	2	$44	77	77	+0	No	+$4	01-23 13:59
will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	2	$35	33	33	+0	Yes	+$6	07-24 19:50
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	2	$27	29	29	+0	No	-$4	01-15 13:14
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by march 13 518 745 483	2	$25	80	80	+0	No	-$3	03-12 18:58
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?	2	$25	16	16	+0	Yes	+$6	07-11 23:04
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$24	43	43	+0	No	-$15	02-06 00:32
will jay kelly be nominated for best picture at the 98th academy awards	1	$22	364	0	+364	No	-$22	01-12 15:49
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	2	$21	64	64	+0	Seahawks	-$20	02-09 02:53
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	2	$21	81	81	+0	No	-$19	02-06 00:32
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	2	$21	43	43	+0	No	-$21	07-24 19:50
will teyana taylor win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	1	$21	29	0	+29	No	-$21	01-22 21:17
will joey chestnut eat 70 or more hot dogs at nathans famous hot dog eating contest 2026mens 20260703210035700	3	$21	51	51	+0	No	-$20	07-04 16:53
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$21	105	105	+0	No	-$17	02-20 11:47
jpm quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 13 2026 4pt94	1	$20	55	0	+55	No	+$34	01-12 15:54
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	2	$20	78	78	+0	No	-$9	01-15 13:12
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	2	$20	39	39	+0	No	-$19	02-15 02:26
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	1	$20	52	0	+52	Yes	+$32	02-18 17:14
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$19	297	0	+297	No	-$19	01-12 15:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-08 17:26:01	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	23¢	$31	0x928178…
07-28 19:29:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	77¢	$15	0x8991fb…
07-28 19:29:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	35	22¢	$8	0xe11b11…
07-28 01:54:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	35	28¢	$10	0x83725d…
07-24 19:50:48	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	43	0¢	$0	0x6dc837…
07-24 19:50:31	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	Yes	SELL	33	61¢	$20	0xb22b3c…
07-22 16:12:58	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	43	49¢	$21	0x9b0ab3…
07-22 16:11:55	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	Yes	BUY	33	44¢	$15	0x61a14b…
07-17 01:03:32	will trump say make america great again during speech to the nation 20260713200621430	Yes	BUY	29	24¢	$7	0xa3ee1b…
07-11 23:04:29	Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x17af9b…
07-11 22:49:20	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	SELL	56	12¢	$7	0x6a9e01…
07-11 22:46:22	Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	16	59¢	$9	0x8ce6b7…
07-11 22:28:47	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	56	20¢	$11	0xd18d10…
07-04 16:53:47	will joey chestnut eat 70 or more hot dogs at nathans famous hot dog eating contest 2026mens 20260703210035700	Yes	SELL	51	1¢	$1	0x213919…
07-04 16:52:46	will joey chestnut eat 76 or more hot dogs at nathans famous hot dog eating contest 2026mens 20260703210035703	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x88fc4c…
07-04 16:29:31	will joey chestnut eat 65 or more hot dogs at nathans famous hot dog eating contest 2026mens 20260703210035699	Yes	BUY	8	70¢	$5	0xcf6d5f…
07-04 16:28:53	will joey chestnut eat 70 or more hot dogs at nathans famous hot dog eating contest 2026mens 20260703210035700	Yes	BUY	26	40¢	$11	0x8e1072…
07-04 16:28:31	will joey chestnut eat 76 or more hot dogs at nathans famous hot dog eating contest 2026mens 20260703210035703	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0xd98438…
07-04 16:27:13	will joey chestnut eat 65 or more hot dogs at nathans famous hot dog eating contest 2026mens 20260703210035699	Yes	BUY	11	71¢	$8	0x4e9c13…
07-04 16:26:46	will joey chestnut eat 70 or more hot dogs at nathans famous hot dog eating contest 2026mens 20260703210035700	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x9db4fc…
07-02 06:05:17	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	No	BUY	303	3¢	$10	0xdfddaf…
06-24 15:44:25	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	0¢	$0	0x105676…
06-24 15:43:50	Kash Patel out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0xce7e62…
06-23 15:24:01	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x608483…
06-17 10:03:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,410	0¢	$5	0x2df2ae…
06-17 10:03:05	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,607	0¢	$11	0x053e3f…
06-14 03:19:33	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	SELL	24	5¢	$1	0x5eeec1…
06-13 21:57:45	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	BUY	24	65¢	$16	0x35b5b9…
06-04 02:42:21	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	39	9¢	$3	0x902062…
06-01 01:24:15	Base FDV above $10B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	58	29¢	$17	0xb2f6dc…
05-20 12:22:11	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	384	3¢	$10	0xbfd5a0…
05-14 01:19:30	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	64¢	$23	0x6dc553…
05-13 21:14:02	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	63¢	$23	0xdd38ab…
05-13 09:28:47	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	59¢	$46	0x606d1d…
05-01 08:22:04	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	39	27¢	$10	0xb9c664…
04-27 17:40:08	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m?	Yes	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0x25e043…
04-22 14:59:52	bitcoin above 80k on april 22	Yes	BUY	153	4¢	$6	0xbcab2d…
04-21 11:56:06	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x4cc253…
04-14 13:31:41	ethereum above 2400 on april 14	Yes	BUY	21	26¢	$6	0x592a81…
04-14 13:30:05	bitcoin above 74k on april 14	Yes	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x80730a…
04-12 20:33:35	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	44	0¢	$0	0xbf25bb…
04-06 16:54:33	will trump say ballroom during the white house easter egg roll	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0x076483…
04-06 16:54:15	will trump say construction during the white house easter egg roll	Yes	SELL	53	0¢	$0	0x693c6a…
04-03 01:45:07	Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	62¢	$6	0xaf7099…
04-02 15:34:57	Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x7818dc…
04-02 15:34:25	Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 30?	No	BUY	9	51¢	$4	0x34c1fe…
04-02 01:13:59	will trump say bibi or netanyahu during address to the nation	Yes	SELL	19	19¢	$4	0x8269d2…
04-02 01:09:29	will trump say fake news during address to the nation	Yes	SELL	17	30¢	$5	0xf303a7…
04-01 19:27:53	will trump say god 3 times during address to the nation	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x34ca56…
04-01 17:00:09	bitcoin above 68k on april 1	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x2b60f5…
04-01 13:39:01	bitcoin above 70k on april 1	Yes	SELL	59	3¢	$2	0x7e5c9c…
04-01 12:39:03	will trump say construction during the white house easter egg roll	Yes	BUY	26	18¢	$5	0x83fae2…
04-01 12:38:19	will trump say construction during the white house easter egg roll	Yes	BUY	27	18¢	$5	0x526bef…
04-01 12:37:57	will trump say ballroom during the white house easter egg roll	Yes	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xec0278…
04-01 12:35:23	will trump say khamenei or khomeini during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xabc0e0…
04-01 12:34:39	will trump say khamenei or khomeini during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	15	38¢	$6	0x769c84…
04-01 12:33:17	will trump say fake news during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	17	24¢	$4	0x8fcb2c…
04-01 12:32:35	will trump say bibi or netanyahu during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	19	29¢	$6	0xe6e00b…
04-01 12:21:45	any of the stolen kitkats recovered by april 5	Yes	BUY	53	9¢	$5	0xf81f0c…
04-01 12:16:57	bitcoin above 68k on april 1	Yes	BUY	7	80¢	$5	0x65091a…
04-01 12:13:21	bitcoin above 70k on april 1	Yes	BUY	63	7¢	$5	0xa37cee…
03-29 21:50:54	will gas hit high 4pt00 by march 31	No	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xa665bc…
03-29 21:46:48	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	497	1¢	$5	0xc6c26d…
03-26 04:44:59	Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	36¢	$11	0x6b5d6f…
03-23 20:54:19	crude oil all time high by march 31	Yes	SELL	97	2¢	$2	0xefa90e…
03-23 20:53:25	will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	Yes	SELL	53	5¢	$3	0x52084e…
03-16 00:31:25	will amy madigan win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xe3da48…
03-16 00:30:49	will paul thomas anderson win best director at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0xd7562c…
03-15 20:11:57	will the perfect neighbor win best documentary feature film at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0xea4c2f…
03-15 20:10:51	will butterfly win best animated short film at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x6453d1…
03-15 15:53:53	will amy madigan win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x81e381…
03-15 15:52:05	will the epstein files be the 1 apple podcast by march 15	Yes	SELL	88	0¢	$0	0xc26a0f…
03-12 18:58:37	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by march 13 518 745 483	Yes	SELL	80	14¢	$11	0x70a078…
03-12 18:57:05	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by march 13 992 833 133	Yes	SELL	157	5¢	$8	0x03d424…
03-12 18:51:41	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by march 13 955 782 768	Yes	SELL	39	100¢	$38	0x6c5a6c…
03-12 15:14:53	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	15	71¢	$10	0xea2349…
03-12 15:09:59	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by march 13 992 833 133	Yes	BUY	157	6¢	$9	0x8998f6…
03-12 00:30:23	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by march 13 518 745 483	Yes	BUY	80	18¢	$14	0x611dc7…
03-11 03:57:19	crude oil all time high by march 31	Yes	BUY	97	10¢	$10	0x95eeea…
03-11 03:55:59	will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	Yes	BUY	53	18¢	$10	0xbd37d1…
03-11 03:53:09	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by march 13 955 782 768	Yes	BUY	39	26¢	$10	0xf70f1f…
03-10 17:22:59	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	315	1¢	$3	0xe65954…
03-09 16:36:57	will one battle after another win best cinematography at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	100	72¢	$72	0x32b2ee…
03-06 22:21:15	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	44	37¢	$16	0x20db25…
03-01 00:29:49	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	61	97¢	$60	0x0171c2…
02-28 12:40:13	will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	Yes	SELL	254	99¢	$252	0x53422d…
02-25 00:34:38	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during the 2026 state of the union address 556	Yes	BUY	115	34¢	$39	0xb1fa7b…
02-24 15:54:38	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during the 2026 state of the union address 556	Yes	BUY	184	28¢	$51	0x19f155…
02-24 15:53:34	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during the 2026 state of the union address 556	Yes	BUY	54	27¢	$15	0x21781e…
02-23 22:03:16	will company b be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	31	34¢	$11	0x8bf17f…
02-23 21:21:30	will company d be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	157	3¢	$5	0x87692b…
02-23 20:56:40	will binance be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	65	15¢	$10	0xfafbda…
02-23 20:54:56	will pumpfun be accused of insider trading	Yes	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0xdebbea…
02-23 02:19:22	will the epstein files be the 1 apple podcast by march 15	Yes	BUY	88	22¢	$19	0x163c69…
02-22 00:35:54	will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	Yes	BUY	254	3¢	$8	0xdf7846…
02-22 00:33:38	ice forced to unmask by february 28	Yes	SELL	107	1¢	$1	0xe58731…
02-20 11:47:14	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	Yes	SELL	105	2¢	$2	0x2c5bf8…
02-18 17:14:08	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	38¢	$20	0x85ce86…
02-15 02:26:01	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	1¢	$1	0xe9b625…
02-09 19:46:33	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	Yes	BUY	105	18¢	$19	0x47189d…