Meager-Sprag — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$125

Unrealized P&L

-$745

Hit rate

41.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$19.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$263

Open exposure

$259

1 position

First seen

2026-01-11

last 05-19 07:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Politics

48% 62% -$1,330

Other

34% 10% -$1

Tech

15% 50% +$1,148

Crypto

2% 58% +$59

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-19).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Yes		+3,241	$1,004	8¢	$259	-$745	05-06 00:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	7	$2.7K	1,799	1,798	+0	Yes	-$10	02-01 11:40
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	4	$2.2K	2,832	2,832	+0	Yes	+$1,734	02-22 22:48
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	4	$2.1K	3,009	2,085	+925	No	-$295	01-15 06:48
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	1	$1.8K	2,012	0	+2,012	Yes	-$1,831	02-25 13:29
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	1	$1.5K	1,831	0	+1,831	No	+$334	02-19 07:06
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	2	$1.3K	1,480	1,480	+0	No	-$148	02-02 14:15
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$1.3K	727	727	+0	No	-$36	01-29 19:37
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	1	$1.0K	3,241	0	+3,241	open	—	05-06 00:35
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	2	$935	1,088	0	+1,088	No	+$152	01-24 04:31
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?	2	$898	588	588	+0	Yes	+$242	04-07 23:04
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	9	$786	1,108	222	+887	Yes	+$535	04-29 14:00
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$585	2,778	2,778	+0	Yes	+$85	04-07 20:24
will anthropic have the best ai model for coding on march 31	1	$489	1,563	0	+1,563	No	-$489	02-06 08:49
will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	3	$447	2,444	1,333	+1,111	No	-$153	02-01 23:56
us strikes iran by january 12 2026 314	1	$274	292	0	+292	No	+$18	01-11 11:02
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	2	$212	414	414	+0	No	-$88	02-21 08:41
will openai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	5	$180	250	0	+250	Yes	+$70	02-14 21:50
claude 4pt7 released by april 17 411	1	$167	700	0	+700	Yes	-$167	04-15 17:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 22:45 UTC	1	$99	177	0	+177	Down	+$78	04-10 22:46
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?	2	$71	371	0	+371	open	—	05-19 07:03
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	1	$71	2,228	0	+2,228	Yes	-$71	02-01 19:28
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$62	2,389	0	+2,389	No	-$62	02-24 07:01
will google have the best ai model for coding on march 31	1	$51	880	0	+880	No	-$51	02-14 01:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 19:00 UTC	2	$33	24	23	+1	Up	+$14	04-08 19:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 22:35 UTC	1	$31	105	0	+105	Down	+$74	04-10 22:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 20:25 UTC	2	$27	18	17	+1	Up	+$7	04-07 20:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	1	$25	435	0	+435	Up	-$25	05-15 06:22
jos lus rodrguez zapatero arrested by march 31	1	$20	301	0	+301	No	-$20	01-27 12:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 20:35 UTC	2	$19	184	172	+12	Down	-$9	04-07 20:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 02:00 UTC	2	$14	45	45	+0	Down	+$4	02-22 02:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-19 07:03:20	Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	253	20¢	$51	0x650c7c…
05-15 06:22:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	435	6¢	$25	0xb05a99…
05-12 20:39:38	Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0x52577a…
05-06 00:35:44	Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,241	31¢	$1,004	0x724a92…
04-29 14:00:06	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xdf41d0…
04-29 13:26:18	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xe2d082…
04-29 13:04:18	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x6f3422…
04-29 12:43:32	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x2646af…
04-29 12:39:00	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x93b7aa…
04-29 12:32:42	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xc2ef4a…
04-29 12:29:24	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	182	98¢	$178	0x2475d1…
04-15 17:11:30	claude 4pt7 released by april 17 411	No	BUY	700	24¢	$167	0xa7db27…
04-12 23:41:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 23:40 UTC	Down	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x2ae8e2…
04-10 22:46:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 22:45 UTC	Down	BUY	177	56¢	$99	0x242464…
04-10 22:36:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 22:35 UTC	Down	BUY	105	30¢	$31	0x0b5935…
04-10 22:33:31	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,095	51¢	$563	0x6ed453…
04-10 22:30:15	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	13	49¢	$7	0xcddf29…
04-10 22:21:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 22:20 UTC	Down	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x9c5c03…
04-09 22:22:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 22:20 UTC	Up	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x8da829…
04-08 19:05:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 19:00 UTC	Up	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xbbc468…
04-08 19:00:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x25f1bc…
04-07 23:04:47	US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?	Yes	SELL	588	97¢	$570	0xcdfbeb…
04-07 20:38:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 20:35 UTC	Up	SELL	172	3¢	$5	0x94ff5d…
04-07 20:37:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 20:35 UTC	Up	BUY	184	8¢	$14	0x1ccf9a…
04-07 20:35:55	US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?	Yes	BUY	588	56¢	$328	0x789b4c…
04-07 20:30:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 20:25 UTC	Up	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x6b30d1…
04-07 20:28:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 20:25 UTC	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x782a4b…
04-07 20:24:33	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	2,778	12¢	$335	0x4ea858…
04-01 17:17:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	2,778	9¢	$250	0x05a8db…
02-25 13:29:10	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	2,012	91¢	$1,831	0xf028d2…
02-24 07:01:06	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	2,389	3¢	$62	0x012590…
02-22 22:48:00	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	SELL	67	92¢	$61	0x37789d…
02-22 22:27:58	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	67	92¢	$61	0x537ef5…
02-22 02:10:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 02:05 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4cdf9a…
02-22 02:07:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x58a981…
02-22 02:03:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 02:00 UTC	Up	SELL	45	20¢	$9	0x9c6e28…
02-22 02:02:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x132bfb…
02-21 20:13:44	will zai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	Yes	BUY	1,667	1¢	$10	0x291757…
02-21 08:41:14	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	Yes	SELL	414	15¢	$62	0xafe95b…
02-19 07:06:32	us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	No	BUY	1,831	82¢	$1,497	0xcd1793…
02-14 21:50:09	will openai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	Yes	BUY	115	72¢	$83	0x1f07d8…
02-14 01:47:07	will google have the best ai model for coding on march 31	Yes	BUY	880	6¢	$51	0x52a13b…
02-14 01:45:53	will openai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	Yes	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0xf85568…
02-14 01:45:53	will openai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	Yes	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0x899792…
02-14 01:45:53	will openai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x80a6b9…
02-14 01:45:53	will openai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	Yes	BUY	88	72¢	$64	0x017173…
02-10 08:02:49	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	Yes	BUY	414	36¢	$150	0x8f7a9a…
02-07 02:31:07	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	SELL	2,765	68¢	$1,884	0xd0c696…
02-06 08:49:07	will anthropic have the best ai model for coding on march 31	Yes	BUY	1,563	31¢	$489	0x3d53f0…
02-06 08:41:25	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	2,765	5¢	$150	0xbcdecf…
02-02 14:15:28	will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	No	SELL	1,480	40¢	$592	0x798119…
02-01 23:56:36	will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	Yes	BUY	1,111	9¢	$100	0x641172…
02-01 23:32:22	will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	Yes	SELL	1,333	11¢	$147	0x5630ba…
02-01 19:28:44	will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	No	BUY	2,228	3¢	$71	0xbdeeed…
02-01 17:18:44	will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	Yes	BUY	1,333	15¢	$200	0xc7f229…
02-01 17:17:56	will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	No	BUY	1,480	50¢	$740	0x87c1a6…
02-01 11:40:08	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	SELL	1,013	100¢	$1,011	0x611109…
01-30 23:39:56	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	BUY	1,013	86¢	$871	0xead4f3…
01-30 23:38:38	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	SELL	286	14¢	$40	0x3d5e18…
01-30 09:36:40	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	286	35¢	$100	0xe5c8b0…
01-29 19:37:40	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	No	SELL	727	86¢	$626	0x91e106…
01-29 14:51:24	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	SELL	500	61¢	$305	0x637e2e…
01-28 18:38:24	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	No	BUY	727	91¢	$662	0xa78654…
01-28 18:28:36	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$10	0xc93b40…
01-27 21:06:43	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	BUY	250	78¢	$195	0x6f8987…
01-27 12:39:57	jos lus rodrguez zapatero arrested by march 31	Yes	BUY	301	7¢	$20	0x540766…
01-27 09:57:15	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0x45a9fa…
01-24 04:31:48	us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	No	BUY	13	86¢	$11	0xe53b57…
01-24 04:29:46	us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	No	BUY	1,075	86¢	$924	0x9534a3…
01-15 06:48:18	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	No	BUY	521	80¢	$417	0x07de57…
01-15 06:48:08	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	Yes	SELL	2,085	20¢	$417	0x07a691…
01-14 23:40:34	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	Yes	BUY	2,085	44¢	$917	0xe0bc44…
01-13 10:52:23	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	No	BUY	403	75¢	$303	0x0c2cd8…
01-11 11:02:48	us strikes iran by january 12 2026 314	No	BUY	292	94¢	$274	0xcf608d…