Shocking-Concentration — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$43

Unrealized P&L

+$30

Hit rate

22.3%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

406

1,188 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.15K

$5.39K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$365

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-14 11:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 103 days

Categories

Crypto

74% 61% -$178

Other

13% 50% +$43

Politics

10% 33% -$7

Sports

2% 0% -$13

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 102 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-254	-$78	37¢	$-95	-$17	06-02 12:47
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-518	-$133	16¢	$-85	+$48	06-02 12:47
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+111	$50	45¢	$50	$0	11-14 11:14
Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2026?	No	+55	$50	79¢	$44	-$6	11-14 11:07
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-932	-$54	5¢	$-43	+$11	06-30 18:52
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-118	-$12	15¢	$-17	-$5	06-02 12:47
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+80	$20	21¢	$17	-$3	11-14 11:14
Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 65m?	No	+10	$6	99¢	$10	+$4	10-21 00:30
Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $3.00T and $3.50T at the end of 2026?	Yes	+20	$6	24¢	$5	-$1	10-20 21:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	4	$163	124	124	+0	Yes	+$51	06-30 18:52
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	4	$142	135	135	+0	Yes	+$82	07-05 21:53
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 14?	55	$137	265	0	+265	No	-$3	10-14 15:02
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	1	$133	0	518	-518	open	—	06-02 12:47
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	3	$110	473	0	+473	No	-$110	07-10 05:36
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$97	51	50	+0	Yes	-$3	06-30 18:52
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	1	$78	0	254	-254	open	—	06-02 12:47
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$76	45	45	+0	Yes	+$10	01-19 16:55
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 15?	28	$70	139	0	+139	No	-$1	10-15 12:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 17?	26	$66	129	0	+129	Yes	-$1	10-17 12:14
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 17?	24	$60	118	0	+118	No	-$2	10-17 12:22
si hit 90 high jan 2026 157 295 494	2	$59	118	118	+0	Yes	+$19	01-07 08:05
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	2	$54	50	50	+0	No	-$6	03-06 19:37
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$54	0	932	-932	open	—	06-30 18:52
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$53	136	136	+0	No	-$7	03-22 05:35
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 15?	22	$51	106	0	+106	No	-$3	10-15 15:01
Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2026?	1	$50	55	0	+55	open	—	11-14 11:07
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	1	$50	111	0	+111	open	—	11-14 11:14
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 14?	20	$50	94	0	+94	No	-$5	10-14 13:06
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	3	$50	826	1,026	-200	No	+$1	01-18 13:45
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 28?	10	$50	59	0	+59	No	+$9	04-27 19:06
will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on april 13	6	$49	68	0	+68	No	+$20	04-13 03:05
will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on april 19	10	$44	72	0	+72	Yes	-$44	04-18 18:19
will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on april 12	7	$43	75	0	+75	No	+$32	04-11 00:02
Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	3	$41	74	74	+0	No	+$1	07-05 21:43
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 16?	16	$41	80	0	+80	No	-$1	10-16 11:26
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 18?	16	$40	80	0	+80	Yes	$0	10-18 12:45
will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 13	4	$40	105	0	+105	Yes	-$40	04-13 09:31
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 18?	16	$37	69	0	+69	No	-$3	10-18 12:45
will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on march 16	6	$36	25	25	+0	No	-$2	03-14 20:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 11:14:49	Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x04f060…
11-14 11:14:34	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x915b44…
11-14 11:07:55	Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0x4369dd…
10-23 23:45:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x0850a8…
10-23 23:10:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xeafda6…
10-23 23:02:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x68173e…
10-23 23:01:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x1b2a27…
10-23 23:00:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x760435…
10-23 20:08:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xbb0325…
10-23 19:08:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xa2c505…
10-23 18:53:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xa3f935…
10-23 18:53:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xedd74f…
10-23 18:51:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x3a72ac…
10-23 18:51:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xe81066…
10-23 18:48:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x6d8834…
10-23 18:45:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x262203…
10-23 18:31:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xfa0c49…
10-23 18:12:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x459d33…
10-23 16:30:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x3fc164…
10-23 16:30:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xc8bf7c…
10-23 16:26:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x09cd52…
10-23 16:24:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x0d1ef6…
10-23 16:22:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x1f4fcf…
10-23 16:18:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x7c4e8a…
10-23 16:16:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x889b7d…
10-23 13:08:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x82cf0e…
10-23 13:07:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xd34b0c…
10-23 11:28:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9a0f0d…
10-23 11:17:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x43656c…
10-23 10:20:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x19696a…
10-23 10:16:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x515dfb…
10-23 09:35:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x7a2460…
10-23 08:53:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xb254b1…
10-23 08:05:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xc29043…
10-23 07:49:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xbc2d42…
10-23 02:31:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x11396c…
10-23 00:10:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x9b577a…
10-22 20:44:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xcca5cc…
10-22 18:54:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x8824b9…
10-22 18:52:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xb22e1b…
10-22 16:42:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x6b27aa…
10-22 14:45:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x39c9d2…
10-22 13:52:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xca3129…
10-22 12:48:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xc06c14…
10-22 11:47:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x39c2e7…
10-22 10:56:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x25cba0…
10-22 10:43:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x8033d2…
10-22 10:34:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xa2e53d…
10-22 10:05:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x7d7076…
10-22 09:00:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x1e8047…
10-22 08:59:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x2ac385…
10-22 06:59:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xf43e2f…
10-22 04:00:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xa86627…
10-22 03:33:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x7543e0…
10-22 02:18:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x2225da…
10-22 02:18:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	0	24¢	$0	0x518e26…
10-22 02:11:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x7029d3…
10-21 21:32:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xabbb9f…
10-21 18:49:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xf34fdf…
10-21 13:42:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x86e19a…
10-21 13:23:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xc01724…
10-21 13:10:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xf6fb81…
10-21 13:10:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xc6f8c8…
10-21 12:42:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x4666da…
10-21 12:28:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xc24ffc…
10-21 07:26:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xa98d0d…
10-21 07:02:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x8c6cd4…
10-21 04:41:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0x88a7f8…
10-21 00:30:42	Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 65m?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xecd400…
10-20 21:13:00	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $3.00T and $3.50T at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xb46796…
10-20 17:27:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xee5906…
10-20 13:28:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xc3230d…
10-20 13:26:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb11886…
10-20 13:09:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x4d37a3…
10-20 12:44:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x34e8c6…
10-20 08:41:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x67e383…
10-20 08:35:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x8c48da…
10-20 07:41:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	4	63¢	$2	0x7803b6…
10-20 07:06:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x634d4a…
10-20 06:56:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0xe93941…
10-20 06:43:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x93b375…
10-20 06:18:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x2416d7…
10-20 04:23:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xe58c97…
10-20 04:08:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x4a11d5…
10-19 14:03:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xf0ab4f…
10-19 13:42:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xae58af…
10-19 13:23:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x7dc0d8…
10-19 13:23:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x7f022a…
10-19 13:02:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x86744a…
10-19 12:40:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xcddf6d…
10-19 12:31:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x7d3734…
10-19 11:53:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x896231…
10-19 11:31:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x1c6506…
10-19 11:21:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x6c18af…
10-19 09:42:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x470f40…
10-19 07:58:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xf3c2ca…
10-19 06:00:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xf57c9d…
10-19 05:52:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xe7996d…
10-19 04:54:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x6ec73a…
10-19 04:49:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x6b3f7e…