Affectionate-Logic — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$94

Unrealized P&L

-$15

Hit rate

66.0%

Resolved

1,620

Trades

3,978

lifetime

Volume

$14.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$59

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 11-12 21:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 54% +$125

Other

23% 44% +$188

Politics

10% 52% -$320

Sports

2% 43% +$106

Tech

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	+300	$42	11¢	$34	-$7	11-12 21:17
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-26	-$21	92¢	$-24	-$3	05-07 14:33
andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	Yes	+30	$6	4¢	$1	-$5	07-25 12:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will witkoff meet with iranian officials by february 28	40	$744	1,340	1,522	-182	Yes	+$222	02-06 19:10
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	12	$365	270	270	+0	Yes	+$110	01-30 22:22
another us government shutdown by february 14	6	$317	250	250	+0	No	-$1	02-13 23:43
will trump say six seven during the 2026 state of the union address	5	$177	100	100	+0	No	+$1	02-24 03:27
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	2	$164	180	0	+180	No	+$16	01-23 21:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	13	$151	440	156	+284	No	-$61	05-10 18:02
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	16	$142	480	100	+380	Yes	-$127	02-28 21:41
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	6	$138	190	150	+40	Yes	+$61	05-30 10:48
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	8	$138	170	0	+170	Yes	-$138	02-28 05:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	6	$117	268	268	+0	No	+$1	04-11 09:59
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$110	140	0	+140	No	+$30	02-18 14:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	5	$84	220	0	+220	No	-$84	05-31 21:23
internet access restored in iran by friday 263	2	$70	50	50	+0	No	+$13	01-26 07:43
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	3	$66	40	40	+0	No	+$7	01-27 13:17
will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	2	$64	50	50	+0	No	+$16	01-29 19:55
wta svitoli gauff 2026 02 20	3	$62	63	53	+10	Svitolina	+$7	02-20 18:05
will player 167 win beast games season 2 763	9	$58	540	0	+540	Yes	-$58	02-25 07:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 18:25 UTC	8	$58	96	0	+96	Up	-$4	02-18 18:29
epl ars mun 2026 01 25 draw	7	$56	100	100	+0	No	+$6	01-25 17:15
epl wol ast 2026 02 27 ast	2	$54	120	0	+120	No	+$66	02-27 19:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 18:30 UTC	6	$54	84	0	+84	Down	-$12	02-18 18:34
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more 842	2	$52	60	0	+60	Yes	+$8	01-30 23:16
ucl bay usg1 2026 01 21 spread home 2pt5	1	$50	100	0	+100	RU Saint-Gilloise	+$50	01-21 17:49
atp alcaraz moutet 2026 01 23 set totals 3pt5	1	$50	160	0	+160	Under 3.5	-$50	01-22 19:55
will trump say governor during fed chair announcement	3	$49	140	0	+140	No	-$49	01-30 12:57
atp alcaraz djokovi 2026 02 01	5	$49	137	37	+100	Alcaraz	-$12	02-01 10:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 18:55 UTC	8	$46	84	0	+84	Down	-$4	02-18 18:58
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	3	$46	110	90	+20	Yes	-$1	03-03 21:28
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?	6	$42	90	90	+0	Yes	+$4	05-06 20:07
Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	10	$42	300	0	+300	open	—	11-12 21:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 21:17:42	Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0xb27275…
11-12 21:08:57	Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	BUY	80	11¢	$9	0x290681…
11-12 10:59:40	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x8ff002…
11-12 10:58:28	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	76	21¢	$16	0xb8fbc2…
11-10 11:36:19	Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x08f634…
11-09 10:08:01	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0xe27c1b…
11-08 19:45:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on November 9?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb63ea9…
11-08 19:44:42	Will "Wild Horse Nine" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x562047…
11-08 19:43:49	Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on November 10?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x57099f…
11-08 19:40:58	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 13°C on November 9?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x82f99d…
11-08 19:40:24	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	20¢	$2	0x3e9f2c…
11-08 19:39:46	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on November 9?	No	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0xed15bd…
10-05 20:35:10	Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x071fa3…
10-05 18:50:59	Will France win on 2026-10-05?	No	BUY	23	35¢	$8	0x4fc7d7…
10-05 18:50:55	Will France win on 2026-10-05?	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x7b2909…
10-05 18:50:52	Will France win on 2026-10-05?	No	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x82ef13…
10-02 20:47:12	Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x0dc134…
10-02 20:24:02	Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	BUY	26	18¢	$5	0x7220b6…
10-02 20:24:00	Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0xfffc66…
10-02 20:24:00	Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0xc7385b…
10-02 20:24:00	Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xc69d38…
10-02 19:48:00	Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	BUY	27	18¢	$5	0x00893e…
10-01 18:53:33	Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x85433f…
09-30 19:08:02	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x837e63…
08-30 18:29:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0x85b978…
08-15 15:50:45	ufc isl ian1 2026 08 15	Islam Makhachev	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x7720e6…
07-25 12:38:36	andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	Yes	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x04ca47…
07-05 17:44:29	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	6	42¢	$2	0x66abb4…
07-05 17:29:52	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0xfafb17…
07-05 17:00:07	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	26	42¢	$11	0x9ad402…
06-12 10:34:42	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	80	17¢	$14	0x4befbe…
05-31 21:23:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0xfd7ef3…
05-30 10:48:49	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	40	57¢	$23	0xa486bd…
05-27 15:30:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0xed7e84…
05-19 22:22:32	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x9fa349…
05-19 22:22:28	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	9	36¢	$3	0x4347c3…
05-19 22:22:21	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x6fcef5…
05-19 20:51:49	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x09d7ee…
05-16 16:18:01	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x21ca3b…
05-16 11:44:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0x2885c1…
05-10 20:52:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0x526017…
05-10 20:31:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0x430bed…
05-10 18:02:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	30	19¢	$6	0x0680da…
05-09 16:15:49	Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xd5a2e0…
05-09 12:42:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0xb76a20…
05-08 16:43:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x543e98…
05-08 15:55:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	40	24¢	$10	0x249067…
05-08 08:16:38	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	SELL	30	17¢	$5	0x82e2df…
05-08 00:46:20	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	40	17¢	$7	0x105fb3…
05-07 20:52:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	46	26¢	$12	0x3b4933…
05-07 20:30:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	59	30¢	$18	0x527f74…
05-07 20:02:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	51	30¢	$15	0xc36e41…
05-07 19:55:13	Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07?	Yes	BUY	60	12¢	$7	0xc3531c…
05-07 14:33:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	26	81¢	$21	0x611d87…
05-07 11:40:40	UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)	Jeremy Stephens	BUY	19	24¢	$4	0x8788ee…
05-07 10:23:58	UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)	Jeremy Stephens	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0x02aa28…
05-07 08:50:19	UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xdf14aa…
05-06 20:33:32	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x3491bf…
05-06 20:07:55	Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	90	26¢	$23	0x250123…
05-06 19:12:46	Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0xa5b68b…
05-06 19:12:46	Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x8a2856…
05-06 19:12:30	Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0x8a64c3…
05-06 19:06:11	Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0x471162…
05-06 19:06:09	Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0xc65f90…
05-05 16:14:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0xc0cab3…
05-04 20:27:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0xd51536…
05-03 17:57:56	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x21419f…
05-03 15:45:32	Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-03?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x288e50…
04-30 15:36:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0xc3d957…
04-30 11:35:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0xf96f0b…
04-30 02:59:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0xa40d5b…
04-29 19:34:36	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xc9761d…
04-29 17:55:56	Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x5b96bb…
04-29 16:19:54	Will Powell say "Luck" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x314b94…
04-29 15:56:04	Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x487b3f…
04-29 15:52:22	Will Powell say "Goods inflation" during April press conference?	No	BUY	19	29¢	$5	0xa08e71…
04-29 15:47:12	Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xba39d6…
04-29 15:34:46	Will Powell say "Goods inflation" during April press conference?	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x11ead6…
04-29 12:53:22	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x5b9df1…
04-29 12:08:26	Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xd1764e…
04-29 12:08:26	Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xcb7749…
04-29 12:08:26	Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0x034697…
04-29 12:06:08	Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	15	58¢	$9	0xf28544…
04-28 20:25:48	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	119	53¢	$63	0xe48897…
04-28 20:25:36	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	19	53¢	$10	0x7d77bf…
04-28 20:25:28	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	12	53¢	$6	0x2d0d5b…
04-28 19:32:14	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x4049b7…
04-26 17:38:34	Will Torino FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x4c05a8…
04-25 18:55:20	Thunder vs. Suns	Suns	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x8a7fc6…
04-25 16:16:32	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x0d2796…
04-25 10:16:30	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0xe84974…
04-24 12:59:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x07db77…
04-22 02:32:16	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x695169…
04-16 13:10:14	Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?	No	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0xa74cff…
04-16 12:37:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x825ce7…
04-16 12:36:22	Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?	No	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0xfffeba…
04-11 09:59:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	268	22¢	$59	0x3cc131…
04-08 17:12:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x55f135…
04-07 20:05:45	US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x483c58…
04-07 20:05:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x4daaef…