Defenseless-Republican — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.48K

Unrealized P&L

+$48

Hit rate

65.8%

Resolved

5,163

Trades

5,931

lifetime

Volume

$104.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$103

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 09-10 06:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 174 days

Categories

Crypto

78% 49% +$1,468

Other

18% 52% +$4,282

Sports

3% 63% -$238

Politics

0% 0% -$32

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes		-588	-$143	17¢	$-97	+$46	05-18 09:59
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	Yes		-150	-$8	4¢	$-6	+$2	05-18 14:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	6	$4.4K	5,724	5,724	+0	No	+$3,813	01-29 04:48
si hit 110 high jan 2026 293 432 128	3	$2.8K	2,573	2,573	+0	Yes	+$2,239	01-26 16:00
will ethereum dip to 2400 in january 2026 453	2	$2.4K	2,338	2,338	+0	Yes	+$2,235	01-31 18:05
will ethereum dip to 2600 in january 2026 489	3	$2.2K	1,599	1,599	+0	Yes	+$996	01-31 14:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 11:25 UTC	2	$1.4K	1,120	1,120	+0	Down	+$140	06-26 11:28
will gold gc hit high 5200 by end of january 343 743 428	2	$1.2K	672	672	+0	Yes	+$152	01-28 04:30
winter games 2026 will usa or norway earn more medals	2	$1.0K	545	545	+0	Norway	+$13	02-16 03:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 15:45 UTC	3	$958	1,603	0	+1,603	Up	-$958	07-21 15:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 23:45 UTC	2	$854	1,418	0	+1,418	Up	-$854	06-29 23:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-14 09:30 UTC	2	$793	1,205	0	+1,205	Up	+$411	06-14 09:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-28 08:15 UTC	2	$793	1,115	0	+1,115	Up	+$321	06-28 08:15
wta zarazua zvonare 2026 01 31	3	$762	412	412	+0	Zarazua	+$62	01-31 14:01
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?	2	$692	537	537	+0	Silver	+$252	01-21 00:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-12 13:15 UTC	1	$610	1,181	0	+1,181	Down	+$570	06-12 13:15
will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	2	$610	586	586	+0	No	+$10	02-16 03:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 07:35 UTC	6	$580	622	0	+622	Up	+$22	03-01 07:39
ethereum up or down february 15 10am et	2	$550	360	360	+0	Up	+$170	02-15 17:23
si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453	2	$533	334	334	+0	Yes	+$133	01-23 23:11
mex nec tol 2026 02 21 tol	3	$523	323	323	+0	Yes	+$123	02-22 04:07
will gold gc hit low 4300 by end of march	4	$520	1,244	0	+1,244	No	-$520	03-27 13:09
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$511	3,462	3,462	+0	No	+$11	02-24 13:32
ethereum above 2400 on april 22	2	$489	308	300	+9	Yes	+$118	04-22 17:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-27 11:30 UTC	2	$488	1,084	0	+1,084	Up	-$488	06-27 11:30
gc hit 6000 high jan 2026	3	$469	7,922	7,922	+0	No	+$49	01-29 12:36
Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	1	$469	884	0	+884	Up	-$469	09-03 05:25
Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	2	$469	652	0	+652	Up	+$184	09-01 23:40
gc hit 5000 high jan 2026 374 153 895 849	3	$455	761	761	+0	Yes	+$63	01-22 19:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-07 17:55 UTC	2	$450	458	0	+458	Down	+$8	03-07 17:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-07 22:30 UTC	2	$417	423	0	+423	Down	+$6	03-07 22:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 04:20 UTC	3	$410	438	0	+438	Up	+$8	02-25 04:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-10 06:40:07	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	195	20¢	$39	0x4a8edb…
09-10 03:20:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	35	45¢	$16	0x99fb64…
09-09 20:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xac5dc7…
09-09 20:10:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	23	27¢	$6	0x7706e1…
09-09 20:05:04	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x7b5282…
09-09 20:00:07	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x122e4e…
09-09 19:55:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x2eddfb…
09-09 19:15:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	689	50¢	$342	0x8d1fa1…
09-09 19:10:07	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	321	43¢	$137	0x99d16f…
09-09 15:30:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	107	51¢	$55	0xcf86d4…
09-09 15:25:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	39	56¢	$22	0xf3054a…
09-09 15:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x12614a…
09-09 15:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x20793b…
09-09 14:35:04	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0xc13230…
09-09 14:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	27	46¢	$12	0xcb352b…
09-09 13:35:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0xabddab…
09-09 13:05:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	36	60¢	$22	0xd73fc1…
09-09 12:15:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	14	62¢	$9	0x699105…
09-09 12:10:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	53¢	$3	0x5f9062…
09-09 12:05:07	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	45	49¢	$22	0x50b15a…
09-09 12:00:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	16	56¢	$9	0xe510f5…
09-09 11:55:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	33¢	$4	0xc1cf6b…
09-09 11:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x85346a…
09-09 11:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x2b2d7c…
09-09 10:15:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	17	53¢	$9	0xf66b5b…
09-09 08:45:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	62	50¢	$31	0xcc01a3…
09-09 08:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	27	47¢	$12	0xf07633…
09-09 07:30:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$3	0x06ff17…
09-09 07:25:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	60¢	$3	0xba6b26…
09-09 07:20:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	195	60¢	$117	0x4bc440…
09-09 05:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x6d20c6…
09-09 05:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x054f96…
09-09 05:00:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	92	51¢	$47	0x9847ca…
09-09 05:00:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	78	50¢	$39	0xf8f66e…
09-09 04:55:09	Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	45	42¢	$19	0x678cdc…
09-09 02:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	31	50¢	$16	0xdb5b61…
09-09 01:00:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	64¢	$8	0xa11927…
09-08 19:00:09	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x4b62e6…
09-08 18:15:12	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xc204b9…
09-08 14:30:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	31	61¢	$19	0x808c58…
09-08 14:25:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x8ae9a1…
09-08 14:15:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	14	46¢	$6	0x662b28…
09-08 14:00:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	38¢	$2	0xc7883c…
09-08 13:55:07	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xe08445…
09-08 13:50:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	60	31¢	$19	0xc94af2…
09-08 13:45:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	28	27¢	$8	0xf792dc…
09-08 11:15:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x61f73a…
09-08 10:30:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	104	45¢	$47	0x00d410…
09-08 10:00:07	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	42	44¢	$19	0xf86b3b…
09-08 09:50:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	14	54¢	$8	0x03a54d…
09-08 07:45:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x503bc2…
09-08 07:35:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	44	43¢	$19	0x90fd6f…
09-08 07:00:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb7a946…
09-08 06:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x6b36cb…
09-08 06:35:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x686fc6…
09-08 06:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x2ae20a…
09-08 06:15:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x067a0e…
09-08 06:00:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xdd7f60…
09-08 04:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x288d94…
09-08 04:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa3dd79…
09-08 04:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xc487c6…
09-08 04:00:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xfe5ffe…
09-08 03:05:04	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x76462b…
09-08 03:00:07	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x499ebf…
09-08 02:55:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x485faa…
09-08 01:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xba448a…
09-08 01:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	13	49¢	$6	0xb176ed…
09-07 16:05:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	65¢	$7	0x5abd60…
09-07 16:00:09	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x05ec5f…
09-07 16:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xb2c9d7…
09-07 15:55:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x5a9874…
09-07 15:50:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	18	43¢	$7	0x9cfff8…
09-07 15:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xa29fe2…
09-07 15:45:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x1a83fe…
09-07 15:40:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	34	55¢	$19	0x1dd01c…
09-07 15:30:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x5b2358…
09-07 15:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$2	0xb00e63…
09-07 14:50:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	18	42¢	$7	0x520589…
09-07 14:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x691bc8…
09-07 14:45:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x2ae976…
09-07 14:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x406a8a…
09-07 14:15:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x205734…
09-07 14:00:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xf3b85c…
09-07 13:45:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	12	60¢	$8	0xa8ba56…
09-07 13:15:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	26	59¢	$16	0xee0e9b…
09-07 13:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	37¢	$6	0x4cbcf7…
09-07 08:00:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-07 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	45¢	$2	0xb4e4a9…
09-07 07:45:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-07 07:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x0bb7e9…
09-07 07:30:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-07 07:30 UTC	Down	BUY	13	48¢	$6	0xc1006b…
09-07 05:35:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-07 05:35 UTC	Up	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x088fa6…
09-07 05:30:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x9cf2e2…
09-07 05:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x834c89…
09-07 05:00:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x8f5c55…
09-07 04:45:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	14	52¢	$7	0xcb8813…
09-07 02:55:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x24d8d0…
09-07 01:20:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0xfa3702…
09-07 01:15:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0xb5bca8…
09-07 01:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xaf7266…
09-07 01:10:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	56¢	$7	0xde9944…
09-06 23:50:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xbac383…