Monstrous-Inclusion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$24

Unrealized P&L

-$24

Hit rate

44.8%

Resolved

Trades

187

lifetime

Volume

$10.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

$71

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-11

last 07-21 22:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Sports

39% 100% +$23

Other

35% 50% $-7

Politics

26% 50% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+92	$50	42¢	$38	$-12	06-22 22:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes		+150	$45	22¢	$33	$-12	06-18 13:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
italy nordio reform referendum passes	4	$519	617	154	+462	open	—	03-23 17:03
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$392	577	0	+577	open	—	04-09 10:53
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 speed skating womens team pursuit canada	1	$350	354	0	+354	open	—	02-17 15:49
atp comesan martine 2026 02 23 set totals 2pt5	1	$311	323	0	+323	open	—	02-23 21:35
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 xc mens 4 x 75km relay norway	2	$261	265	0	+265	open	—	02-15 11:55
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?	1	$250	256	0	+256	open	—	04-05 08:27
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?	1	$250	267	0	+267	open	—	04-05 08:30
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 speed skating womens 1500m femke kok ned	2	$232	240	0	+240	open	—	02-20 16:28
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	8	$229	227	227	+0	open	—	07-10 16:46
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 24 2026	2	$212	228	0	+228	open	—	03-24 23:25
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 luge mens doubles muellerhaugsjaa usa	2	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	02-11 19:16
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 speed skating womens 1500m miho takagi jpn	2	$200	245	0	+245	open	—	02-20 16:51
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$168	250	0	+250	open	—	04-06 23:00
will 80 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 362	2	$166	351	0	+351	open	—	04-17 13:37
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	1	$162	250	0	+250	open	—	04-05 10:08
military action against iran ends by april 15 2026 937	2	$157	174	174	+0	open	—	04-08 11:30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$155	292	0	+292	No	$-155	05-01 01:14
will iran strike bahrain again in march	2	$150	176	0	+176	open	—	03-25 18:39
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 speed skating st womens 3000m relay netherlands	1	$150	186	0	+186	open	—	02-18 20:07
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$122	75	75	+0	open	—	04-06 10:13
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	4	$116	271	0	+271	open	—	06-19 23:09
will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	10	$109	202	170	+32	open	—	07-01 13:38
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 alpine mens slalom paco rassat fra	1	$106	107	0	+107	open	—	02-16 09:03
starmer out by august 31 2026 593 871	3	$104	279	0	+279	open	—	06-20 01:39
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 speed skating mens 10000m sander eitrem nor	2	$101	109	0	+109	open	—	02-13 16:46
starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	3	$100	550	300	+250	open	—	06-21 15:24
2026 winter olympics snowboard halfpipe womens yang lu chn	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	02-11 11:27
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 speed skating st womens 500m natalia maliszewska pol	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	02-12 19:20
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	1	$100	120	0	+120	open	—	03-26 20:37
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 30 2026 933	1	$100	111	0	+111	open	—	03-30 12:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 22:00:49	will russia enter novooleksandrivka by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	51	20¢	$10	0x375db7…
07-21 21:59:25	will russia capture bilytske by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x995e3a…
07-21 20:50:42	f1 hungarian grand prix h2h lindblad vs lawson 2026 07 26	Lindblad	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xb09863…
07-21 20:49:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	55	55¢	$30	0x5a1f04…
07-21 20:49:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x0a146b…
07-20 15:15:27	f1 hungarian grand prix h2h lindblad vs lawson 2026 07 26	Lindblad	BUY	24	49¢	$12	0x91995d…
07-14 20:19:40	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts	Yes	BUY	75	60¢	$45	0x46026a…
07-12 16:19:50	atp sinner zverev 2026 07 12 set handicap home 1pt5	Sinner	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x2b67e2…
07-12 16:18:31	atp sinner zverev 2026 07 12	Jannik Sinner	BUY	24	63¢	$15	0xdefa14…
07-12 09:33:01	atp sinner zverev 2026 07 12	Jannik Sinner	BUY	56	80¢	$45	0xf19627…
07-10 16:46:29	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	57	66¢	$38	0x23c1b4…
07-07 23:23:43	wta kostyuk paolini 2026 07 07	Jasmine Paolini	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x7420b6…
07-07 17:44:31	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xc4293e…
07-04 16:44:46	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	57	46¢	$26	0x2f9a0a…
07-04 16:42:01	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	48	42¢	$20	0xd9b3f7…
07-04 01:42:19	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0xebf615…
07-03 23:27:19	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	25	69¢	$17	0x5d7b6a…
07-03 21:09:28	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	SELL	82	37¢	$30	0xd90b7a…
07-03 21:02:43	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	SELL	40	37¢	$15	0x37e845…
07-01 21:10:28	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x2a6e37…
07-01 13:38:29	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	No	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x7f9fc9…
07-01 08:56:38	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	56	16¢	$9	0x0ddf22…
07-01 08:52:49	will russia capture all of huliaipole by september 30	No	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x17a71f…
07-01 07:24:52	will russia capture lyman by september 30 2026	No	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0x5be9cd…
06-30 22:28:47	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	SELL	19	20¢	$4	0x90a988…
06-30 21:29:46	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	26	50¢	$13	0x9d4b68…
06-30 18:27:20	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	16	69¢	$11	0xec8ab0…
06-30 10:43:59	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0xc0dd6b…
06-30 04:06:28	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	SELL	46	20¢	$9	0xa8cee9…
06-29 15:01:05	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	SELL	15	20¢	$3	0x2f499d…
06-29 15:01:02	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	SELL	15	20¢	$3	0x9d13be…
06-29 15:00:58	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x925124…
06-29 15:00:55	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xf1d8e3…
06-29 15:00:50	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x0e03d0…
06-29 08:38:22	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	0¢	$0	0xc98b50…
06-29 08:38:13	Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?	Yes	SELL	178	0¢	$0	0x0da6fd…
06-29 08:38:07	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt35t by june 30	Yes	SELL	162	1¢	$1	0x13b75e…
06-29 08:36:47	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$25	0xce310f…
06-28 14:41:43	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team to advance	Canada	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xcd0b68…
06-28 14:41:43	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team to advance	Canada	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xc7487b…
06-24 04:47:19	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	Yes	BUY	107	14¢	$15	0x6b7976…
06-24 04:47:08	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x345c0f…
06-22 22:31:25	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	54¢	$50	0x7eff05…
06-22 22:30:01	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	BUY	170	29¢	$50	0x19f269…
06-22 22:29:43	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	72	70¢	$50	0x509d21…
06-22 18:39:44	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xcc5e5e…
06-22 15:51:46	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	7¢	$5	0xf5c69b…
06-22 10:18:50	will russia capture dorozhnie by june 30 2026	No	BUY	171	3¢	$5	0x10727b…
06-22 10:18:35	will russia capture dorozhnie by july 31 2026	No	BUY	208	2¢	$5	0x67a1cd…
06-22 08:24:20	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	327	1¢	$5	0x2d68bf…
06-22 08:07:59	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x6d7266…
06-21 15:24:25	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0xc3cd8a…
06-21 13:44:10	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	300	15¢	$45	0x494a90…
06-21 10:25:37	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	400	10¢	$40	0x91ba6b…
06-20 01:39:29	starmer out by august 31 2026 593 871	No	BUY	57	7¢	$4	0xc83732…
06-19 23:09:28	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	70	30¢	$21	0x3557d9…
06-19 20:02:02	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xc19dfa…
06-19 16:09:50	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0xf2ecf0…
06-19 08:35:44	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x6aec6c…
06-18 15:15:14	starmer out by august 31 2026	No	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0xfac9a6…
06-18 14:25:08	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x1ea5cc…
06-18 13:13:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	30¢	$45	0xed3e59…
06-17 21:41:41	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	121	66¢	$80	0xcda478…
06-17 21:36:22	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	18	60¢	$11	0x732437…
06-16 20:39:35	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	21	61¢	$13	0xe7d92a…
06-13 19:15:55	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt35t by june 30	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x03f944…
06-12 17:58:51	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt35t by june 30	Yes	BUY	4	13¢	$1	0x9759d1…
06-12 17:15:43	starmer out by august 31 2026	No	BUY	188	48¢	$90	0x278986…
06-12 17:10:49	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt35t by june 30	Yes	BUY	96	13¢	$12	0x939e4b…
06-05 22:43:27	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xd0f931…
06-05 22:43:15	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xaab959…
06-05 22:43:09	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x770b4e…
06-05 22:39:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x91fb78…
06-05 22:39:15	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread home 5pt5	Spurs	BUY	86	56¢	$48	0x301f24…
06-05 22:38:43	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xbd074e…
06-05 22:38:12	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 rebounds victor wembanyama 11pt5	Yes	BUY	85	54¢	$46	0x125849…
05-13 00:41:01	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x82f8b9…
05-12 16:40:10	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Martin Landaluce	Hamad Medjedovic	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x32de9f…
05-12 15:46:06	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili	Andrey Rublev	BUY	19	37¢	$7	0x610bbf…
05-12 15:23:49	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili	Andrey Rublev	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x3be5c7…
05-04 03:26:30	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	49	41¢	$20	0xdf803c…
05-04 03:26:24	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	113	71¢	$80	0xb370e9…
05-04 03:25:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	36¢	$30	0xdc785c…
05-01 01:14:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	6¢	$5	0x607662…
04-23 13:42:04	U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xce2794…
04-23 13:39:54	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xfb4066…
04-22 22:16:50	Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	278	9¢	$25	0x33ef0a…
04-22 15:42:18	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x50f786…
04-22 15:42:10	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x12bb9e…
04-22 15:13:44	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	88	17¢	$15	0x4ca026…
04-22 15:13:38	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	89	11¢	$10	0x437d16…
04-22 15:13:20	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	85	29¢	$25	0xa9b78e…
04-22 15:11:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xdf0764…
04-22 15:10:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	215	70¢	$150	0x1c4bec…
04-22 15:08:02	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	153	16¢	$24	0xe6ae11…
04-17 13:37:24	will 80 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 362	Yes	BUY	203	49¢	$100	0x21f8ab…
04-17 13:29:56	will 80 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 362	Yes	BUY	148	44¢	$66	0x1ed592…
04-10 06:04:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	6¢	$10	0xf27671…
04-09 10:53:13	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	343	70¢	$240	0xfa05d0…
04-09 08:43:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0xa1e6c3…