Soggy-Placebo — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.64K

Unrealized P&L

+$31

Hit rate

74.3%

Resolved

1,161

Trades

5,494

lifetime

Volume

$206.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$38

Open exposure

$986

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 11:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 140 days

Categories

Other

86% 96% -$545

Crypto

7% 83% -$1,202

Politics

3% 100% +$95

Sports

2% 0% -$5

Tech

1% 100% +$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+650	$616	98¢	$637	+$21	09-27 23:58
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	+200	$198	99¢	$197	$0	10-27 11:24
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	No	+150	$149	99¢	$148	-$1	10-27 03:24
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	-200	-$15	2¢	$-4	+$11	04-28 12:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	143	$6.2K	3,170	3,216	-45	No	+$39	03-30 04:40
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	46	$5.9K	3,450	3,000	+450	open	—	09-27 23:58
highest temperature in hong kong on april 5 2026 25c	56	$4.6K	1,663	2,942	-1,279	Yes	+$29	04-07 15:33
highest temperature in hong kong on april 14 2026 29c	24	$4.4K	1,045	3,468	-2,423	Yes	-$128	04-14 15:41
highest temperature in hong kong on april 4 2026 26c	22	$4.1K	1,041	3,153	-2,112	Yes	+$11	04-08 00:54
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$0	04-28 13:35
highest temperature in hong kong on april 10 2026 28c	29	$3.8K	14	3,766	-3,752	Yes	-$4	04-12 02:45
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	178	$3.6K	2,477	1,850	+628	Yes	-$490	05-05 22:29
highest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 23c	11	$3.3K	881	2,479	-1,599	Yes	+$6	04-26 16:54
highest temperature in hong kong on april 2 2026 24c	7	$3.3K	108	3,218	-3,110	Yes	-$2	04-04 15:55
highest temperature in hong kong on april 2 2026 23c	48	$3.0K	3,038	174	+2,864	No	+$67	04-05 00:06
highest temperature in hong kong on april 1 2026 27c	12	$2.8K	0	2,829	-2,829	Yes	-$5	04-02 03:14
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	38	$2.6K	1,772	1,010	+762	Yes	-$757	05-05 02:18
highest temperature in hong kong on april 22 2026 29c	1	$2.4K	0	2,441	-2,441	Yes	-$2	04-22 13:00
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	2	$2.4K	5	2,414	-2,409	No	-$2	01-01 13:24
highest temperature in hong kong on march 18 2026 27c	24	$2.1K	1,138	1,167	-30	Yes	-$44	03-19 01:55
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 400 419	2	$1.9K	1,920	5	+1,915	No	+$2	01-01 14:28
will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 april 19	22	$1.9K	401	1,511	-1,110	Yes	+$11	04-20 17:48
highest temperature in hong kong on april 16 2026 30corhigher	3	$1.9K	156	1,728	-1,571	Yes	-$1	04-16 22:00
highest temperature in hong kong on april 10 2026 27c	43	$1.8K	3,083	2,817	+266	No	+$83	04-10 05:15
highest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 21corbelow	6	$1.8K	1,827	158	+1,669	No	+$2	04-24 00:06
highest temperature in hong kong on april 8 2026 25c	42	$1.8K	1,821	929	+892	No	+$27	04-09 00:02
highest temperature in hong kong on april 3 2026 27c	14	$1.8K	608	1,208	-600	Yes	+$7	04-07 18:45
highest temperature in hong kong on april 10 2026 25c	9	$1.8K	1,800	750	+1,050	No	+$3	04-11 17:18
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - April 26?	9	$1.7K	344	1,332	-989	Yes	+$3	04-27 20:39
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	16	$1.6K	703	903	-200	No	-$1	03-09 01:06
highest temperature in hong kong on march 23 2026 19c	3	$1.6K	1,575	0	+1,575	No	+$2	03-22 13:52
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 220 239	3	$1.6K	1,557	0	+1,557	No	+$2	01-05 12:00
highest temperature in hong kong on april 18 2026 28c	3	$1.5K	0	1,539	-1,539	Yes	-$2	04-19 20:38
highest temperature in hong kong on april 18 2026 23c	1	$1.5K	1,539	0	+1,539	No	+$3	04-17 06:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 11:24:45	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x792898…
10-27 03:24:51	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xf785b1…
10-27 02:58:45	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xe8011a…
10-27 01:42:15	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x626ed5…
09-27 23:58:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xd3b0f1…
09-27 20:54:17	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$193	0x17aeb7…
09-26 18:39:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x2faf9b…
09-25 15:39:44	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	60	97¢	$58	0x7f2d2f…
09-25 15:38:23	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0xce620f…
09-06 19:33:49	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	160	96¢	$153	0x47ec15…
09-06 16:54:54	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 4?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3f8e63…
09-05 11:05:57	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xa9bfd1…
09-05 01:10:40	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 4?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x83b70f…
08-26 17:21:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xfb1e32…
08-22 16:15:30	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0xd05eee…
08-20 14:13:04	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	80	86¢	$68	0xa7b177…
08-20 14:11:06	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	120	86¢	$104	0x4ddb13…
08-15 06:01:13	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 14?	No	BUY	190	100¢	$190	0xb7ce16…
08-14 21:04:31	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x1269fa…
08-14 20:50:19	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf9b0c4…
08-14 17:36:40	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 14?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf2b22d…
08-14 15:44:04	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 14?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1b8914…
08-09 13:36:58	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 8?	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0x178749…
08-08 07:05:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x8f1c6c…
07-24 19:22:25	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x5f3a1e…
07-24 14:39:52	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x3db2e6…
07-24 09:54:21	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	87	99¢	$86	0xe1e0c9…
07-22 12:46:34	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xb95a82…
07-22 05:31:49	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x477e35…
07-21 20:57:28	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x488ac5…
07-21 10:05:30	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x136297…
07-21 10:03:55	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster?	No	SELL	400	100¢	$399	0x63f843…
07-19 06:38:33	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf625a3…
07-19 06:38:31	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x9f57b6…
07-19 06:07:34	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x11c86f…
07-18 11:27:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xb6d653…
07-18 11:25:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd4507f…
07-18 11:22:28	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x3d0b83…
07-18 11:22:24	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xdb9c26…
07-18 11:22:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0c9dc0…
07-18 11:21:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x31693e…
07-18 11:19:03	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x932df2…
07-18 11:15:57	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xafc898…
07-18 11:10:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa508a4…
07-18 11:10:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xe84335…
07-18 04:12:48	Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	Yes	SELL	55	0¢	$0	0x593573…
07-18 04:12:43	Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	Yes	SELL	55	0¢	$0	0xc1ef71…
07-17 18:58:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0xccdc65…
07-17 15:31:37	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x201fc0…
07-17 15:28:09	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x5dad39…
07-17 10:07:36	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x527227…
07-17 09:50:13	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0xd71ac7…
07-17 09:35:54	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	111	98¢	$109	0x7cfee9…
07-17 08:29:51	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 17?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xfec134…
07-17 08:08:21	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 17 20260713194332727	No	SELL	93	100¢	$93	0x3ff92e…
07-17 06:51:49	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x7073a2…
07-17 05:29:42	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 17 20260713194332727	No	SELL	107	100¢	$107	0x9abadf…
07-17 04:44:12	Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x47f93e…
07-17 04:26:18	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 17 20260713194332727	No	BUY	196	99¢	$194	0x721e80…
07-17 04:21:39	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 17 20260713194332727	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xbcde9e…
07-17 03:30:36	Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x87dee0…
07-16 19:37:49	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x0994b3…
07-10 23:32:07	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	457	100¢	$457	0x5f7d86…
07-10 21:59:44	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xeacb84…
07-10 21:06:47	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb876e7…
07-10 21:06:47	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5cd7fc…
07-10 18:40:01	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x689f21…
07-10 17:39:05	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x37e940…
07-08 22:00:41	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	87	0¢	$0	0x189535…
07-08 20:38:49	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xe3f2b1…
07-08 15:01:29	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x18dd8a…
07-08 15:00:49	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	110	0¢	$0	0x785f20…
07-08 14:38:29	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xabf8ea…
07-08 14:03:04	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x19930c…
07-08 12:44:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	60	0¢	$0	0xa1e4d8…
07-08 11:33:35	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0x9f9fd6…
07-08 10:48:01	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x2cece0…
07-08 10:40:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xa61b3b…
07-08 10:16:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	19	0¢	$0	0xdab5c1…
07-08 10:06:29	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	19	0¢	$0	0x556c64…
07-08 09:51:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xf4cc79…
07-08 06:43:14	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xd523a0…
07-08 06:09:08	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	113	0¢	$0	0x38602a…
07-08 05:00:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 8?	No	BUY	94	100¢	$94	0x809c25…
07-08 04:59:01	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 8?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xb6d91b…
07-07 21:06:53	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on July 8?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8d88bf…
07-07 21:06:53	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 8?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x57b72a…
07-07 21:06:53	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 8?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x3cc702…
07-07 19:35:29	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 8?	No	BUY	400	99¢	$396	0x55d3ce…
07-07 19:20:11	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9320d9…
07-07 18:49:59	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 8?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf17524…
07-07 18:48:16	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 8?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc12816…
07-07 18:45:08	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 8?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x94a62d…
07-07 18:43:01	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 8?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x23f1c5…
07-07 18:32:49	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 8?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xce95dc…
07-07 18:29:19	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x32a06c…
07-07 18:17:11	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 8?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf4881e…
07-07 18:12:38	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	139	0¢	$0	0x7180cc…
07-07 18:08:44	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 8?	Yes	SELL	61	0¢	$0	0xac5c7b…
07-07 18:07:41	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 8?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x3b27d1…