Misguided-Bowtie — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

22.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$271

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-08 12:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 25% $-10

Other

1% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	+10	$5	36¢	$4	$-1	05-08 12:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	+12	$6	24¢	$3	$-3	05-08 12:29
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8?	Down	+8	$1	15¢	$1	+$0	05-08 12:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	1	$89	182	0	+182	open	—	05-08 10:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	5	$31	36	12	+24	open	—	05-08 07:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	5	$25	51	0	+51	open	—	05-08 09:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	4	$20	42	0	+42	open	—	05-08 07:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	3	$15	40	0	+40	open	—	05-08 07:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	3	$15	31	0	+31	open	—	05-08 08:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	2	$6	12	0	+12	open	—	05-08 12:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	2	$6	12	0	+12	open	—	05-08 08:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-08 07:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-08 12:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	05-08 11:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	1	$5	15	0	+15	open	—	05-08 08:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-08 07:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	2	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	05-08 11:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	3	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	05-08 09:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	4	$4	10	0	+10	Down	$-4	05-07 19:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	1	$3	6	0	+6	open	—	05-08 11:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	05-08 10:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	Down	$-2	05-07 13:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	2	$2	27	0	+27	open	—	05-08 07:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	2	$2	37	0	+37	Down	$-2	05-06 00:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	1	$1	25	0	+25	open	—	05-08 07:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	1	$1	12	0	+12	Down	$-1	05-06 00:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-08 10:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Up	$-1	05-07 15:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	1	$1	5	0	+5	Down	$-1	05-07 19:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	1	$1	11	0	+11	open	—	05-08 10:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-08 08:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Up	$-1	05-07 13:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Down	+$1	05-07 13:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-08 12:49:47	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x41d501…
05-08 12:29:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x9bb371…
05-08 12:29:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xecf394…
05-08 12:19:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x04e656…
05-08 11:49:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xf01cdd…
05-08 11:34:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xe8d8b4…
05-08 11:34:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x0cee76…
05-08 11:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x289429…
05-08 10:34:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	182	49¢	$89	0xc29602…
05-08 10:29:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xdefcde…
05-08 10:09:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x936502…
05-08 10:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x0b0319…
05-08 09:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x1524a4…
05-08 09:19:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x09cb5a…
05-08 09:19:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xbae6ed…
05-08 09:05:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0eaa88…
05-08 09:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x7acc12…
05-08 09:05:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x040a9b…
05-08 09:05:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x696106…
05-08 09:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x33c3f6…
05-08 08:59:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x236ad2…
05-08 08:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xf5aef9…
05-08 08:59:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb64210…
05-08 08:55:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xe2525b…
05-08 08:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x7b6300…
05-08 08:50:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xde99ac…
05-08 08:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x1c2068…
05-08 08:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x591703…
05-08 07:39:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x04f9d1…
05-08 07:39:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x76aad7…
05-08 07:39:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x6eaa94…
05-08 07:39:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x915161…
05-08 07:34:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xfa4fd9…
05-08 07:30:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xb31340…
05-08 07:30:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x6ca880…
05-08 07:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xfb9db8…
05-08 07:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xc72965…
05-08 07:19:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0x9eb719…
05-08 07:15:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xe17ecf…
05-08 07:15:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x7e2cd7…
05-08 07:15:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x67eb30…
05-08 07:15:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xe60ce4…
05-08 07:14:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xfae6e2…
05-08 07:14:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x69354e…
05-08 07:04:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd60bb9…
05-07 20:26:21	RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x8e9f67…
05-07 19:41:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x82f6cd…
05-07 19:41:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x953462…
05-07 19:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x392b05…
05-07 19:40:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7ce4b4…
05-07 19:01:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x3d9636…
05-07 18:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xef97ce…
05-07 15:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x54f32c…
05-07 13:39:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x108420…
05-07 13:24:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x849e27…
05-07 13:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x876eb6…
05-07 13:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x8cfdab…
05-06 00:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x174380…
05-06 00:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xe9dd83…
05-06 00:28:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xfb8696…
05-06 00:19:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xe9e773…
05-06 00:05:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x320901…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	35	$14.4K	409	05-08 12:34
Sentimental-Differential 0x510a…d77f	31	$922	141	05-08 12:25
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	30	$24.8K	380	05-08 12:24
Upset-Sight 0xe022…6603	30	$3.48K	321	05-08 12:34
Slight-Goodnight 0x6088…f361	30	$1.48K	143	05-08 12:24
Equal-Renaissance 0x1c4e…4150	30	$934	215	05-08 12:25
Exalted-Mattress 0xa8cc…41a9	29	$1.93K	70	05-08 12:25
Rash-Alternative 0xf353…6685	29	$1.53K	151	05-08 12:24