Vicious-Marshland — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$762

Unrealized P&L

-$77

Hit rate

72.0%

Resolved

1,462

Trades

3,256

lifetime

Volume

$37.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$225

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 10-29 15:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 115 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 54% -$849

Other

30% 58% +$75

Tech

3% 73% +$45

Politics

2% 14% -$23

Sports

1% 50% -$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 86 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+250	$235	68¢	$169	-$66	10-29 13:49
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+102	$50	44¢	$45	-$5	10-29 15:47
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	+26	$10	32¢	$8	-$2	09-26 15:25
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+28	$5	8¢	$2	-$3	09-27 09:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	+8	$1	6¢	$0	-$1	09-29 01:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 16:45 UTC	3	$1.3K	1,238	377	+862	Down	-$786	03-29 16:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 03:45 UTC	3	$1.1K	1,143	95	+1,048	Down	+$89	03-29 03:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 04:05 UTC	3	$743	389	388	+1	Down	+$34	03-28 04:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 08:30 UTC	3	$719	782	36	+746	Down	+$68	03-28 08:34
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	4	$711	394	394	+0	open	—	08-28 23:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 08:20 UTC	1	$664	689	0	+689	Up	+$26	03-28 08:24
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	20	$601	11,674	11,674	+0	No	-$37	09-12 01:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 09:50 UTC	2	$601	691	0	+691	Up	+$90	03-28 09:54
highest temperature in sao paulo on march 25 2026 29c	2	$583	294	294	+0	No	+$5	03-25 15:57
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	16	$580	500	250	+250	open	—	10-29 13:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 16:40 UTC	4	$509	907	896	+11	Down	-$91	03-29 16:44
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	5	$506	348	348	+0	No	+$66	08-31 15:13
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	2	$428	253	253	+0	Yes	+$28	09-02 16:28
highest temperature in shenzhen on march 24 2026 27c	2	$418	215	215	+0	Yes	+$10	03-24 11:33
highest temperature in wellington on march 24 2026 21c	2	$402	204	204	+0	Yes	+$5	03-24 06:44
highest temperature in toronto on march 23 2026 2c	2	$393	199	199	+0	Yes	+$4	03-24 00:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 04:10 UTC	2	$388	602	0	+602	Down	+$214	03-28 04:12
highest temperature in warsaw on march 23 2026 15c	2	$386	195	195	+0	Yes	+$4	03-23 17:08
highest temperature in tokyo on march 23 2026 15c	2	$377	191	191	+0	Yes	+$4	03-23 12:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 03:30 UTC	2	$369	198	198	+1	Down	+$23	03-28 03:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 07:40 UTC	2	$368	199	199	+0	Up	+$6	03-23 07:44
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	4	$325	244	244	+0	No	+$15	05-13 02:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 07:05 UTC	2	$256	194	191	+3	Up	+$109	03-23 07:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 13:25 UTC	2	$241	208	208	+0	Down	+$41	08-15 13:28
highest temperature in london on march 18 2026 19c	11	$240	128	128	+0	No	-$4	03-18 10:30
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?	2	$233	166	166	+0	open	—	08-16 13:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 12:15 UTC	2	$218	192	192	+0	Down	+$18	08-15 12:18
highest temperature in london on march 26 2026 10c	2	$207	108	108	+0	Yes	+$7	03-26 23:09
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	2	$204	170	170	+0	open	—	09-05 02:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 03:35 UTC	2	$202	333	328	+5	Up	-$189	03-28 03:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 15:47:35	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x13493c…
10-29 13:49:31	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	250	69¢	$173	0x0cff86…
10-29 06:36:46	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x39a50b…
10-29 05:26:02	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x970809…
10-29 05:25:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	26¢	$1	0x254197…
10-29 05:25:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xfc3cb0…
10-29 05:20:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xea25ca…
10-29 05:13:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x5d2634…
10-29 05:07:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	SELL	3	16¢	$1	0xba28df…
10-29 05:05:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x811bdd…
10-29 05:00:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xfdec05…
10-29 04:57:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0x8dd4d5…
10-29 04:55:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x2bdb42…
10-29 04:51:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x65003e…
10-29 04:50:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x2f6dbf…
10-29 04:46:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x25738d…
10-29 04:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xe0d235…
10-29 04:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x2fe03c…
10-29 04:41:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xba0e26…
10-29 04:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x0500a6…
10-29 02:16:29	Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	122	16¢	$20	0x85352f…
10-29 02:16:14	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	SELL	42	69¢	$29	0xec1a56…
10-24 04:52:00	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa84ee5…
10-24 03:52:32	Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0xbcb273…
10-23 09:35:56	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xac28dd…
10-22 16:37:32	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xeed89c…
10-22 16:36:15	Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0xb624fa…
10-22 14:42:51	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x21757b…
10-21 00:52:26	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x0b398e…
10-20 16:43:42	Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	12¢	$9	0xbebb93…
10-20 16:43:03	Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	15¢	$4	0x3122f9…
10-17 11:04:08	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xf1001d…
10-14 12:34:39	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	943	0¢	$5	0xe2ab14…
10-14 12:34:18	kimi k4 released by march 31 2027	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x4245fa…
10-14 12:33:21	Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	10¢	$4	0x244123…
10-10 00:04:19	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	Yes	SELL	31	8¢	$2	0xbdfeb4…
10-08 16:43:24	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x5b6409…
10-08 16:43:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	23¢	$6	0x3ee329…
10-05 11:23:59	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x09f605…
10-04 12:43:50	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	55	73¢	$40	0xb959f6…
10-04 12:43:26	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	597	7¢	$43	0xc8466f…
10-04 12:41:40	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0x8eea5d…
10-04 12:41:23	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	42¢	$35	0xc2ee53…
10-03 14:17:09	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x81bbc7…
10-03 10:54:35	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x91c4c4…
10-03 09:14:11	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x8f1380…
10-03 09:12:59	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	47¢	$36	0xd16031…
10-03 08:55:36	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0xdd7ca1…
10-03 08:55:26	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xad4a68…
10-02 08:05:09	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x72ac11…
10-02 07:30:39	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x220c9d…
10-02 07:30:09	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x3a587b…
10-02 07:29:41	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	126	46¢	$58	0xe1a45a…
10-02 07:21:21	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	47	85¢	$40	0x4f496e…
10-02 07:20:51	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	189	85¢	$160	0xe3501a…
10-02 07:17:21	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x4cd6d5…
10-02 04:01:48	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	75¢	$17	0x932411…
10-02 02:50:17	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his rally in Oklahoma?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x0d1b27…
10-01 09:21:36	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x500054…
10-01 08:42:36	will trump say si during his rally in oklahoma october 1	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x720b58…
10-01 08:42:09	will trump say fake news during his rally in oklahoma october 1	No	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xeb08e7…
10-01 08:42:00	will trump say transgender during his rally in oklahoma october 1	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xab7250…
10-01 08:38:45	will openai rename itself to opensi	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x3bc0a0…
10-01 07:53:17	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	18	44¢	$8	0x6edb7c…
10-01 04:32:11	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x9fd611…
10-01 02:54:15	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	30	42¢	$13	0x18584f…
10-01 00:34:29	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x0564a6…
10-01 00:32:33	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	47¢	$20	0xf5efc2…
10-01 00:14:39	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x28db47…
09-30 19:14:24	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x4a95c2…
09-30 16:42:53	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x02def2…
09-30 15:41:11	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x2ce99a…
09-30 14:09:03	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xd546b6…
09-30 13:47:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xc3335d…
09-30 11:41:39	Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	75	10¢	$8	0x336c0f…
09-30 11:41:30	Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x2cc605…
09-30 11:41:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	74	58¢	$43	0xa534f0…
09-30 11:40:53	Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xead81a…
09-30 08:44:21	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x84b121…
09-30 00:00:27	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	2¢	$1	0xe93265…
09-30 00:00:12	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x91e4ba…
09-30 00:00:00	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x5449d0…
09-29 23:59:51	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x4b83cb…
09-29 23:59:44	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xeef593…
09-29 23:59:11	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xd191d5…
09-29 23:57:09	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0x8e1380…
09-29 01:39:11	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x8ed7f7…
09-29 01:38:38	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xdb972c…
09-29 01:37:11	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x07ff0e…
09-29 01:34:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xe12b7e…
09-27 09:38:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xa9fe17…
09-27 09:38:45	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xc4a590…
09-27 09:37:05	bitcoin above 88k on september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x60caeb…
09-27 09:36:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 29?	Yes	SELL	28	24¢	$7	0xfad933…
09-26 15:27:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 29?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xef2974…
09-26 15:25:21	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x74472b…
09-26 15:17:06	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	418	2¢	$10	0x529e0c…
09-26 01:33:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xab8f0a…
09-24 15:05:54	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	139	2¢	$3	0xba1bca…
09-24 04:46:08	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x0ee40e…