Useful-Precipitation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

42.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 07-08 12:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

40% 50% +$2

Other

35% 20% $-1

Tech

17% — —

Crypto

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?	5	$145	184	184	+0	Up	+$0	05-07 15:27
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	4	$126	70	70	+0	open	—	06-28 11:07
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 7?	4	$123	120	120	+0	No	$-0	05-07 15:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$102	200	200	+0	open	—	05-07 13:49
will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	01-15 14:33
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$97	100	0	+100	open	—	05-08 15:11
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	4	$96	100	100	+0	open	—	07-08 12:11
iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	4	$95	70	70	+0	open	—	06-28 10:01
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?	2	$60	50	50	+0	Down	+$0	05-07 14:31
will gold gc hit high 5800 by end of february 759 378 429 713 662 579	1	$45	50	0	+50	open	—	02-14 12:28
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	4	$39	40	40	+0	No	$-0	05-07 15:07
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	4	$38	40	40	+0	open	—	06-28 12:38
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	2	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	06-28 12:37
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	4	$32	26	26	+0	open	—	07-08 09:53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$23	20	20	+0	Yes	+$2	03-05 11:20
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	2	$19	20	20	+0	open	—	05-08 13:26
will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	2	$14	20	20	+0	open	—	07-08 09:19
will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637	2	$14	20	20	+0	open	—	06-28 12:40
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	2	$11	20	20	+0	open	—	05-08 13:26
will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 654	2	$10	20	20	+0	open	—	07-08 09:20
iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	2	$10	50	50	+0	open	—	07-08 12:04
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	2	$10	50	50	+0	open	—	07-08 10:54
will trump speak to luiz inacio lula da silva in july 20260626154217439	2	$8	20	20	+0	open	—	06-28 12:41
will the next grok model released by xai debut at a score of at least 1440 by december 31 2026 20260708011851338	2	$5	20	20	+0	open	—	07-08 11:28
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	1	$5	0	20	-20	open	—	05-08 14:18
SlingshotDAO FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$4	8	8	+0	open	—	06-28 12:39
will google googl q2 capital expenditures be above 37b 20260703215213301	2	$4	20	20	+0	open	—	07-08 12:05
will nigel farage up his vote share in clacton 20260707171746907	2	$4	20	20	+0	open	—	07-08 11:29
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	2	$4	20	20	+0	No	$-0	05-08 15:04
Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	2	$1	20	20	+0	Yes	$-0	05-08 14:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 12:11:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	50	72¢	$36	0x667c55…
07-08 12:05:26	will google googl q2 capital expenditures be above 37b 20260703215213301	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xe53620…
07-08 12:04:28	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x9e31ef…
07-08 12:03:58	will google googl q2 capital expenditures be above 37b 20260703215213301	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x590178…
07-08 12:03:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xfb0aa9…
07-08 12:00:35	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xd2bb85…
07-08 11:29:46	will nigel farage up his vote share in clacton 20260707171746907	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x40cd43…
07-08 11:28:44	will the next grok model released by xai debut at a score of at least 1440 by december 31 2026 20260708011851338	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xf19357…
07-08 10:54:50	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$5	0x3de0d4…
07-08 10:44:55	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x0442a5…
07-08 10:41:25	will rtx rtx q2 pratt whitney sales be above 9pt5b 20260707030902631	Yes	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0x26f51f…
07-08 10:18:43	will rtx rtx q2 pratt whitney sales be above 9pt5b 20260707030902631	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x7e3c30…
07-08 10:04:56	will nigel farage up his vote share in clacton 20260707171746907	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x9e7b03…
07-08 09:53:28	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	6	28¢	$2	0xe3fb86…
07-08 09:49:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0x572d46…
07-08 09:40:59	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0xf465ec…
07-08 09:20:47	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 654	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x181229…
07-08 09:19:56	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x594e66…
07-08 09:19:08	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x7980ba…
07-08 09:14:55	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 654	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xc3e938…
07-08 08:46:44	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x1dc166…
07-08 08:45:02	will the next grok model released by xai debut at a score of at least 1440 by december 31 2026 20260708011851338	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xdec07f…
07-08 08:30:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0xbc00f9…
07-08 08:27:04	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xa6bdad…
06-28 12:41:16	will trump speak to luiz inacio lula da silva in july 20260626154217439	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xe5e548…
06-28 12:40:46	will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x68ebcf…
06-28 12:39:38	SlingshotDAO FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	8	27¢	$2	0x57147c…
06-28 12:38:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	No	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x275767…
06-28 12:37:02	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x36d93f…
06-28 11:56:32	SlingshotDAO FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x895e54…
06-28 11:49:08	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xcc0031…
06-28 11:48:53	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xe6c7a8…
06-28 11:09:56	will trump speak to luiz inacio lula da silva in july 20260626154217439	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x93eef2…
06-28 11:07:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0xf1744b…
06-28 10:45:26	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x5626df…
06-28 10:38:10	will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x943581…
06-28 10:26:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	Yes	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x6669de…
06-28 10:24:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x8a1705…
06-28 10:01:52	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x95ce3e…
06-28 10:00:29	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x3ed9fc…
06-28 09:47:56	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xab3145…
06-28 08:57:47	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x47f17b…
06-28 08:46:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x01d205…
06-28 08:23:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x3a1701…
05-08 15:11:02	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x6c8f3d…
05-08 15:04:30	Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x63282e…
05-08 14:46:41	Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xe1e235…
05-08 14:46:00	Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x46e945…
05-08 14:18:56	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x9c1c34…
05-08 13:36:53	Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x9b60c6…
05-08 13:26:25	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xca9f9b…
05-08 13:26:15	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0xaf76da…
05-08 13:19:46	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	No	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x29d338…
05-08 13:18:57	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x76ea70…
05-07 15:27:55	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 7?	Yes	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x5e287b…
05-07 15:27:28	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	SELL	74	96¢	$71	0x333e79…
05-07 15:26:50	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x5e454b…
05-07 15:25:17	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	BUY	74	96¢	$71	0xa688f1…
05-07 15:17:26	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 7?	Yes	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0xb183ac…
05-07 15:12:41	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x3568fb…
05-07 15:07:44	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xfcca83…
05-07 15:05:45	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x9d4a44…
05-07 15:01:54	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x57f642…
05-07 14:55:44	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xd646a7…
05-07 14:53:21	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?	Up	SELL	110	1¢	$1	0xef8dbe…
05-07 14:52:46	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?	Up	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xf91665…
05-07 14:52:07	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?	Up	BUY	107	1¢	$1	0x29ec86…
05-07 14:31:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?	Up	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0x993a24…
05-07 14:30:10	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?	Up	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xade8fe…
05-07 13:49:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	26¢	$51	0x6bcef6…
05-07 13:48:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	26¢	$51	0xb79da0…
03-05 11:20:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x557dd7…
02-14 12:28:41	will gold gc hit high 5800 by end of february 759 378 429 713 662 579	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x221193…
01-29 17:34:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xc14fea…
01-15 14:33:06	will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xf4ed2b…