Vibrant-Vintner 0xc851cd…12cd2a
whale hot 2W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$227.0K
Unrealized P&L
-$17.0K
Hit rate
75.9%
Resolved
164
Trades
8,770
lifetime
Volume
$9.21M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.05K
Open exposure
$238.9K
28 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 10-26 14:22
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 89 days
Categories
Politics
53% 55% +$335,640
Other
41% 58% -$184,568
Crypto
6% 100% +$77,455
Tech
0% 0% -$2,002
Sports
0% 100% +$523
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
71 active days in 12wk • peak 198 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +74,083 $52,417 72¢ $53.7K +$1,293 10-25 12:01
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +30,000 $29,100 96¢ $28.9K -$150 10-25 22:45
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +27,322 $25,137 93¢ $25.5K +$342 10-21 07:55
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? Yes +24,649 $18,481 100¢ $24.5K +$6,045 10-21 21:38
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -18,759 -$15,870 96¢ $-17999 -$2,129 07-21 14:14
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +108,558 $27,150 16¢ $17.9K -$9,238 10-22 19:32
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes +100,000 $16,000 18¢ $17.5K +$1,500 10-20 20:39
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? No +123,310 $5,769 8¢ $10.1K +$4,342 10-24 19:04
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +13,462 $7,638 64¢ $8.6K +$977 10-20 12:00
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +8,144 $4,543 90¢ $7.3K +$2,786 10-26 14:22
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes +109,273 $12,820 6¢ $6.0K -$6,810 10-16 17:32
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +5,650 $3,693 94¢ $5.3K +$1,589 10-13 19:30
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Yes +176,599 $22,832 2¢ $3.5K -$19,300 10-24 08:54
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes +21,231 $3,571 13¢ $2.8K -$811 09-06 13:59
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes +16,468 $2,509 11¢ $1.7K -$780 09-23 13:31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +9,908 $1,877 15¢ $1.5K -$391 09-29 18:17
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes +9,108 $1,579 15¢ $1.3K -$258 09-24 13:26
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583 Yes +300,000 $2,700 0¢ $1.0K -$1,650 10-15 16:47
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +14,933 -$983 7¢ $1.0K +$1,991 10-19 14:27
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? Yes +66,217 $1,572 1¢ $828 -$744 10-09 15:47
us iran hormuz agreement by october 31 Yes +15,868 $2,156 5¢ $730 -$1,426 10-14 16:08
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No +2,296 $1,629 26¢ $608 -$1,021 09-23 14:27
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? Yes +32,929 $2,964 1¢ $379 -$2,585 09-28 15:07
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes +1,907 $661 2¢ $34 -$626 09-23 14:21
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? Yes +1,539 $26 2¢ $27 +$1 10-24 19:04
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +6,521 $59 0¢ $23 -$36 09-24 22:56
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +0 -$15,837 94¢ $0 +$15,837 10-04 01:40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +0 $5,761 93¢ $0 -$5,761 10-20 01:34