Mysterious-Stepuncle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$592

Unrealized P&L

-$22

Hit rate

37.1%

Resolved

233

Trades

394

lifetime

Volume

$4.79K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$239

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-16

last 09-24 04:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Crypto

83% 22% -$341

Other

11% 0% -$248

Politics

6% 18% +$2

Sports

0% 0% -$3

Tech

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		-238	-$224	99¢	$-235	-$11	08-21 13:58
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes		+200	$15	2¢	$4	-$11	06-29 15:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	3	$224	0	238	-238	open	—	08-21 13:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:35 UTC	5	$191	166	137	+29	Up	+$60	08-21 15:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:30 UTC	7	$161	186	96	+90	Down	+$16	08-21 15:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 07:55 UTC	7	$152	93	93	+0	Up	+$32	08-20 08:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	5	$137	77	77	+0	Up	+$17	08-23 18:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 10:30 UTC	3	$130	299	0	+299	Down	-$37	02-17 10:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	5	$129	193	76	+117	Up	+$46	08-21 15:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 02:35 UTC	6	$120	1,839	0	+1,839	Down	-$120	08-06 02:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 10:25 UTC	3	$110	208	0	+208	Down	-$16	02-17 10:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 08:15 UTC	7	$104	601	103	+498	Up	+$68	08-20 08:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$101	154	43	+111	No	-$39	05-23 14:28
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$86	119	0	+119	Yes	+$33	02-28 14:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 03:50 UTC	4	$71	74	74	+0	Up	+$55	07-05 03:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 02:20 UTC	4	$66	351	59	+293	Up	+$6	08-06 02:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 03:50 UTC	1	$60	120	0	+120	Up	-$60	06-29 03:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 16:00 UTC	3	$60	103	0	+103	Down	-$60	08-21 16:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:25 UTC	3	$60	161	0	+161	Down	+$101	08-21 15:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$57	300	0	+300	Yes	-$57	06-29 04:06
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$52	300	0	+300	No	-$52	06-29 03:44
spx opens up or down on february 17 2026	1	$50	91	0	+91	Down	-$50	02-16 22:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 03:45 UTC	1	$50	69	0	+69	Up	-$50	06-29 03:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 12:40 UTC	1	$50	66	0	+66	Down	-$50	04-14 12:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 23:55 UTC	2	$48	63	0	+63	Down	-$48	04-17 23:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 04:40 UTC	4	$45	88	0	+88	Up	-$45	06-29 04:38
will grok 4pt20 be released on february 17 2026	2	$40	347	347	+0	Yes	-$10	02-17 13:09
ethereum up or down august 22 2026 5pm et	2	$40	379	0	+379	Down	-$40	08-22 21:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 02:15 UTC	2	$40	208	0	+208	Down	-$40	08-06 02:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:40 UTC	2	$40	81	0	+81	Down	-$40	08-21 15:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:50 UTC	2	$40	85	0	+85	Down	-$40	08-21 15:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 15:55 UTC	4	$40	205	0	+205	Down	-$40	02-16 15:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-24 04:47:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0xe282f4…
09-23 10:37:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x29f3ae…
09-23 10:35:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x7c7c6f…
08-23 18:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x31823a…
08-23 18:40:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x125ff0…
08-23 18:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	77	99¢	$77	0x09fab6…
08-23 18:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x164fef…
08-23 18:38:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0x3c62d1…
08-23 18:38:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	17	87¢	$15	0xc81b89…
08-23 18:37:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x6058f7…
08-23 18:36:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xafe91d…
08-23 18:35:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x05bc2f…
08-22 22:15:40	solana up or down august 22 2026 6pm et	Down	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x06dda1…
08-22 22:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0xe65575…
08-22 22:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	68	4¢	$3	0x127dd4…
08-22 22:09:16	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 22:05 UTC	Down	BUY	819	0¢	$3	0x6ccdab…
08-22 22:08:22	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 22:05 UTC	Down	BUY	112	3¢	$3	0x2be8e0…
08-22 22:02:10	bitcoin up or down august 22 2026 6pm et	Up	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x8b8af4…
08-22 22:01:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-22 22:00 UTC	Up	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0xbe190f…
08-22 21:38:43	bitcoin up or down august 22 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0x0a3d19…
08-22 21:35:34	bitcoin up or down august 22 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0xef2462…
08-22 21:32:54	bitcoin up or down august 22 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x560891…
08-22 21:31:48	xrp up or down august 22 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	122	12¢	$15	0xbe5eb9…
08-22 21:30:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-22 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	35	56¢	$20	0x18dadb…
08-22 21:30:07	ethereum up or down august 22 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	175	11¢	$20	0x27f11a…
08-22 21:28:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-22 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	904	0¢	$3	0x869ca4…
08-22 21:26:28	ethereum up or down august 22 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	204	10¢	$20	0x843da8…
08-22 21:24:33	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-22 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	214	9¢	$20	0x81b55d…
08-22 21:23:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-22 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	299	7¢	$20	0x6e2c56…
08-21 16:47:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x569bdf…
08-21 16:38:10	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 16:30 UTC	Up	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0xe2f677…
08-21 16:38:07	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 16:30 UTC	Up	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0xe19c04…
08-21 16:19:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0xf2d0f4…
08-21 16:16:22	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x1246cb…
08-21 16:16:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x91b79a…
08-21 16:14:42	bitcoin up or down august 21 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x8bbae1…
08-21 16:10:30	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	31	10¢	$3	0x7f8b5f…
08-21 16:07:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	218	9¢	$20	0x28baf5…
08-21 16:03:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x5569ef…
08-21 16:01:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x795070…
08-21 16:00:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x995df8…
08-21 15:55:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:55 UTC	Up	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x958afc…
08-21 15:51:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0x201720…
08-21 15:50:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0xe81b30…
08-21 15:45:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x20d272…
08-21 15:41:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:40 UTC	Up	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0xe44cb5…
08-21 15:40:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:40 UTC	Up	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0xa4c298…
08-21 15:39:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:35 UTC	Up	SELL	137	81¢	$111	0x0f342c…
08-21 15:39:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x80d3d0…
08-21 15:39:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x42810c…
08-21 15:38:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0xf30793…
08-21 15:35:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0x151346…
08-21 15:33:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x8ab300…
08-21 15:33:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0xb4e8bf…
08-21 15:33:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:30 UTC	Up	SELL	25	47¢	$12	0x2bd575…
08-21 15:32:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	41	74¢	$30	0x3778b2…
08-21 15:31:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:30 UTC	Up	SELL	71	55¢	$40	0xda27c9…
08-21 15:31:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x8b576e…
08-21 15:30:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x0d240f…
08-21 15:29:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:25 UTC	Down	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x48c2b5…
08-21 15:29:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:25 UTC	Down	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x592459…
08-21 15:28:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:25 UTC	Down	BUY	97	21¢	$20	0xa977bc…
08-21 15:18:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x3359e7…
08-21 15:18:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0x230685…
08-21 15:17:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x218f1b…
08-21 15:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x111015…
08-21 15:13:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0xd1ad4f…
08-21 15:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x51acf2…
08-21 15:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	SELL	76	38¢	$29	0x6b6ed0…
08-21 15:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	76	33¢	$25	0x5d58c3…
08-21 14:34:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x8302bc…
08-21 14:33:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xd52273…
08-21 14:29:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:25 UTC	Down	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0xb7a8c0…
08-21 14:28:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:25 UTC	Down	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xf0351f…
08-21 14:28:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:25 UTC	Down	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x591ff4…
08-21 14:13:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:10 UTC	Up	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0xb69c42…
08-21 14:09:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:05 UTC	Down	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0xca8922…
08-21 14:09:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:05 UTC	Down	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0xe3207c…
08-21 14:07:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:05 UTC	Down	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x338cbc…
08-21 14:02:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0x649ce0…
08-21 13:59:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 13:55 UTC	Up	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x85adcf…
08-21 13:58:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 13:55 UTC	Up	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x0b6248…
08-21 13:58:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	205	96¢	$197	0xfbc65e…
08-20 09:10:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 09:10 UTC	Down	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xc0c6b6…
08-20 09:08:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x788f36…
08-20 09:06:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x3d22e4…
08-20 09:05:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x380390…
08-20 09:05:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x0c086c…
08-20 09:04:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x400b4a…
08-20 09:01:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x742aa5…
08-20 08:58:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 08:55 UTC	Up	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0x071cde…
08-20 08:57:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 08:55 UTC	Up	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x4e4779…
08-20 08:53:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 08:50 UTC	Down	BUY	35	9¢	$3	0xa8b0dc…
08-20 08:52:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 08:50 UTC	Down	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x46eb39…
08-20 08:47:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x5c3d47…
08-20 08:46:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x854fde…
08-20 08:41:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 08:40 UTC	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xee0227…
08-20 08:33:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 08:30 UTC	Up	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0xc22895…
08-20 08:33:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 08:35 UTC	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x854a8c…
08-20 08:31:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 08:30 UTC	Up	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x1cdb78…