Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$723

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

12.8%

Resolved

190

Trades

2,050

lifetime

Volume

$28.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$66

16 positions

First seen

2026-07-16

last 10-27 09:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 54 days

Categories

Other

64% 19% -$487

Politics

15% 15% -$113

Sports

10% 7% -$88

Crypto

8% 0% -$6

Tech

3% 14% -$30

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	Yes	+41	$15	32¢	$13	-$2	10-26 09:28
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	+50	$12	26¢	$13	+$1	10-25 19:40
No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+50	$13	25¢	$13	-$1	10-26 03:11
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+17	$10	54¢	$9	-$1	09-24 20:21
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	+20	$7	30¢	$6	-$1	10-25 12:57
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	+20	$3	18¢	$4	+$0	10-26 14:21
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	+15	$3	18¢	$3	$0	10-13 22:35
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?	$60	+7	$3	40¢	$3	$0	10-18 12:15
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?	No	+6	$1	29¢	$2	+$0	10-26 09:40
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	+15	$1	6¢	$1	-$1	10-13 22:35
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+27	$2	2¢	$1	-$2	10-13 15:35
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+27	$4	2¢	$0	-$3	10-13 15:35
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	+1	$0	6¢	$0	$0	10-22 15:30
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+0	$1	60¢	$0	-$1	09-20 11:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Yes	+0	$0	24¢	$0	+$0	09-21 08:36
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+0	$0	24¢	$0	$0	09-29 00:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	14	$2.2K	2,828	2,828	+0	open	—	10-15 12:30
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	23	$737	647	647	+0	open	—	10-24 18:13
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	7	$595	389	389	+0	open	—	09-17 03:39
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	18	$569	492	492	+0	No	-$13	09-17 04:12
Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2026?	5	$556	325	325	+0	open	—	09-18 22:49
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026?	14	$540	621	621	+0	open	—	10-17 12:25
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	16	$522	613	613	+0	No	-$18	08-25 22:12
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	18	$448	357	357	+0	open	—	09-18 14:18
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	9	$434	299	299	+0	Yes	-$11	09-08 22:00
Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30?	13	$349	300	250	+50	open	—	10-26 09:18
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	9	$297	186	186	+0	No	-$3	08-12 12:37
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	2	$274	221	221	+0	No	-$9	08-23 15:42
Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	15	$272	254	254	+0	open	—	10-25 16:53
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	9	$266	200	166	+34	open	—	10-26 14:17
Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	15	$262	275	246	+29	open	—	10-27 09:15
Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?	17	$254	260	260	+0	Yes	+$1	10-10 15:39
Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	13	$252	216	216	+0	open	—	10-16 11:44
Will Nasim Nuñez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?	15	$246	202	202	+0	Yes	-$4	08-12 00:01
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	13	$245	231	231	+0	No	-$3	09-05 11:42
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	8	$230	270	270	+0	open	—	10-24 21:40
Will Joao Cancelo join Barcelona?	9	$224	140	140	+0	Yes	-$5	08-03 11:22
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30?	8	$218	231	231	+0	No	-$7	09-09 09:49
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	10	$217	262	262	-0	open	—	09-22 20:23
Will 2026 rank between 10th and 12th among the highest domestic box office years?	7	$217	280	280	+0	open	—	09-24 12:26
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	11	$207	201	160	+41	open	—	10-26 09:28
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?	22	$207	215	215	+0	open	—	08-14 13:37
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?	5	$197	200	200	+0	No	-$25	09-12 13:32
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	17	$191	269	269	+0	open	—	09-28 09:48
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	15	$185	210	190	+20	open	—	10-27 07:21
Will the San Diego Padres clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	23	$185	252	252	+0	Yes	+$2	09-22 12:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 11:01:57	Will Toluca finish the 2026-27 Liga MX season with the best combined goal differential?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x5de439…
10-27 09:15:29	Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	No	SELL	18	50¢	$9	0x5af346…
10-27 08:51:17	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Yes	BUY	13	12¢	$2	0x8b46fa…
10-27 08:51:15	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Yes	BUY	3	12¢	$0	0x63f1a7…
10-27 07:21:41	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x382300…
10-27 04:43:26	Will LCK have the most teams in the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	Yes	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x887b3f…
10-27 04:31:56	Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xf78a2f…
10-27 03:06:33	Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xd9f1ce…
10-27 02:30:33	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	26¢	$4	0x70199c…
10-27 02:13:54	Will the longest game of the 2026 MLB Postseason last 11+ innings?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xb221d4…
10-27 02:07:48	Will LCK have the most teams in the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x8a1f0e…
10-27 02:07:47	Will LCK have the most teams in the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xd8638b…
10-27 01:50:33	Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	No	BUY	48	50¢	$24	0x5f8be5…
10-27 00:31:05	Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x9ff859…
10-27 00:26:30	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0xc90048…
10-27 00:01:48	Will Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	No	SELL	30	39¢	$12	0xd9291c…
10-27 00:01:47	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US eCommerce sales growth 25% to 29%?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0xbc58c5…
10-27 00:01:15	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027?	No	SELL	16	57¢	$9	0x3ad046…
10-27 00:01:15	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x0ce6e4…
10-27 00:00:42	Will Thor die in Avengers: Doomsday?	No	SELL	46	29¢	$13	0x4a7f63…
10-27 00:00:41	Will Marc Marquez win the 2026 MotoGP World Championship?	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x90f531…
10-26 23:04:35	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0xa011e0…
10-26 22:05:54	Will Kaden Honeycutt win the 2026 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship?	No	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0xa22c04…
10-26 22:05:54	Will Kaden Honeycutt win the 2026 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship?	No	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0x45e170…
10-26 22:05:53	Will Kaden Honeycutt win the 2026 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship?	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xfacbc9…
10-26 21:38:41	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x96666e…
10-26 21:21:15	James Comey charges dropped by December 31?	No	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0xe94267…
10-26 21:21:15	James Comey charges dropped by December 31?	No	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x033f62…
10-26 21:08:39	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x845b17…
10-26 21:03:09	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x583107…
10-26 19:22:51	Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	51¢	$26	0x69f79f…
10-26 19:11:18	Will Peggy Flanagan underperform Kamala in Minnesota?	Yes	SELL	14	42¢	$6	0x8953ba…
10-26 18:56:17	Will Tesla perform another live stunt with the Roadster by April 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x8a8f79…
10-26 18:10:32	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0xe22a81…
10-26 17:28:11	Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	18¢	$5	0xb41276…
10-26 17:08:03	Will Rose Jackson be the next Premier of New South Wales?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x329859…
10-26 15:30:35	Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x51f220…
10-26 15:07:45	Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x675a17…
10-26 15:02:36	Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x02aca6…
10-26 14:48:18	Will Troy Jackson run ahead of Hannah Pingree?	No	SELL	13	77¢	$10	0xff09f4…
10-26 14:48:12	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0x9a6361…
10-26 14:21:45	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x01480f…
10-26 14:17:00	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	No	SELL	9	72¢	$6	0x15fbc9…
10-26 14:16:54	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	No	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x806877…
10-26 13:37:59	Will Texas Tech Red Raiders Win the 2026 Big 12 Championship?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x75e5c7…
10-26 13:07:14	Will Troy Jackson run ahead of Hannah Pingree?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xf144ee…
10-26 12:37:30	Will Ty Jerome win the 2026-27 NBA Most Improved Player?	Yes	SELL	9	29¢	$3	0xa71875…
10-26 12:23:12	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	61¢	$6	0xe5bdd6…
10-26 12:23:12	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	61¢	$6	0xbd728d…
10-26 10:24:45	Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x54033c…
10-26 09:40:02	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	0	31¢	$0	0xb63025…
10-26 09:37:51	Will LCK have the most teams in the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	Yes	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0xa07f4d…
10-26 09:28:11	Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	38¢	$15	0x2af845…
10-26 09:18:12	Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0xdcdb7d…
10-26 09:18:12	Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30?	Yes	BUY	48	18¢	$9	0xc289ab…
10-26 08:36:14	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	31¢	$1	0x31ce70…
10-26 07:37:38	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	24	38¢	$9	0xe9c168…
10-26 07:31:21	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 7% to 9%?	Yes	SELL	7	49¢	$3	0xbb3ba9…
10-26 07:19:42	Will Ty Jerome win the 2026-27 NBA Most Improved Player?	Yes	BUY	9	26¢	$2	0x1d05c4…
10-26 06:42:44	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x6c3c4f…
10-26 05:55:00	Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	No	SELL	51	54¢	$27	0xe3e354…
10-26 04:56:18	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0xef4719…
10-26 03:11:32	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0xebd6fb…
10-26 03:03:12	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x44d4f0…
10-26 02:02:51	Will Kaden Honeycutt win the 2026 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship?	No	SELL	13	31¢	$4	0xc7a00c…
10-26 02:01:56	Will Deft play for Nongshim RedForce in 2027?	No	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x86cade…
10-26 02:01:39	Will LCK have the most teams in the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	Yes	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xa55e3f…
10-26 01:59:24	Will Kaden Honeycutt win the 2026 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship?	No	SELL	0	31¢	$0	0x7c6f75…
10-26 01:22:35	Lindsay Hubbard and Matt James confirm relationship in 2026?	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xf690a1…
10-26 00:30:39	Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x3b7417…
10-26 00:09:15	Will LCK have the most teams in the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x8053d4…
10-26 00:02:15	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	16	40¢	$6	0x818e5b…
10-26 00:01:35	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027?	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x754ce3…
10-26 00:01:33	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x53a993…
10-26 00:00:42	Will Airbnb (ABNB) Q3 gross booking value be above $26.2B?	Yes	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x0be480…
10-26 00:00:41	Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x47238c…
10-25 23:54:30	Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0x990920…
10-25 23:07:08	Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x29cc65…
10-25 23:06:48	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x8ce2d8…
10-25 22:10:38	Will Kira Freije win the Turner Prize 2026?	No	SELL	25	73¢	$18	0x9770b6…
10-25 22:10:36	Will Kira Freije win the Turner Prize 2026?	No	SELL	25	73¢	$18	0x1dcc3b…
10-25 21:43:35	Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x83c9a3…
10-25 21:29:50	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	No	SELL	33	84¢	$28	0x587f6f…
10-25 21:29:48	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	No	SELL	9	84¢	$8	0x41c61c…
10-25 21:29:48	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	No	SELL	8	84¢	$7	0x2398e2…
10-25 19:59:56	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xa2933f…
10-25 19:51:11	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0xccfd12…
10-25 19:40:23	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0x54b1c6…
10-25 19:40:23	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	BUY	42	29¢	$12	0x35724d…
10-25 19:21:50	Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	67	62¢	$41	0xe56820…
10-25 18:56:21	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	No	SELL	17	75¢	$12	0x469772…
10-25 17:54:50	Will Tesla perform another live stunt with the Roadster by April 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x07b0ed…
10-25 17:50:51	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?	No	SELL	60	76¢	$45	0x7af830…
10-25 17:50:18	Will LCK have the most teams in the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	No	SELL	43	24¢	$10	0xeaf1b7…
10-25 17:20:08	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	No	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0x6b0fa7…
10-25 16:59:45	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	No	SELL	33	74¢	$25	0xcdc827…
10-25 16:53:35	Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xc86830…
10-25 16:30:05	Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	38	43¢	$16	0x84f57e…
10-25 16:24:15	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$41	0xff3b03…
10-25 15:54:33	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	Yes	SELL	50	59¢	$30	0x96642a…