Careful-Hamburger — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$685

Unrealized P&L

-$53

Hit rate

69.8%

Resolved

168

Trades

309

lifetime

Volume

$8.06K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$17

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-03

last 10-25 22:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 55% -$325

Other

24% 60% +$14

Politics

10% 50% -$284

Tech

2% 50% -$99

Sports

0% 100% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes		+78	$60	17¢	$13	-$47	04-28 20:20
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes		+45	$10	8¢	$4	-$6	05-03 07:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?	17	$589	993	993	+0	Yes	+$73	05-04 15:59
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	9	$401	605	200	+405	No	-$213	05-02 10:57
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	2	$246	613	0	+613	No	-$246	08-30 00:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	3	$232	169	169	+0	Up	+$32	06-02 02:13
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	5	$219	268	0	+268	Yes	+$49	04-26 19:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	3	$200	280	0	+280	Yes	+$80	04-22 12:33
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	6	$165	220	220	+0	Yes	+$15	05-10 19:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	3	$165	108	108	+0	Up	+$15	06-02 03:15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6?	2	$160	400	0	+400	No	-$160	05-06 13:46
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	4	$137	186	186	+0	No	-$9	05-08 12:15
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	2	$130	1,097	0	+1,097	Yes	-$130	04-23 16:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	3	$125	80	80	+0	Down	+$25	06-02 02:06
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	4	$118	130	130	+0	No	+$39	06-01 20:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	2	$112	65	65	+0	Down	+$12	06-02 01:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	3	$110	80	80	+0	Up	+$10	06-02 20:47
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	4	$90	114	114	+0	No	+$1	05-29 11:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	3	$90	91	49	+42	Up	-$10	06-02 02:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	3	$88	72	41	+31	Down	+$19	06-01 23:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	3	$87	68	41	+27	Up	+$14	06-02 01:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	3	$87	64	38	+26	Down	+$13	06-02 01:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	3	$86	76	44	+32	Down	+$18	06-02 01:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	2	$79	71	71	+0	Up	+$29	06-01 22:42
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	2	$71	45	45	+0	No	+$11	05-27 21:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	3	$70	69	69	+0	No	+$14	05-29 02:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	3	$68	292	42	+250	Up	+$8	06-02 02:23
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$66	96	0	+96	Yes	+$31	04-23 07:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	2	$65	40	40	+0	Up	+$15	06-01 20:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	2	$64	46	46	+0	Up	+$14	06-01 23:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	2	$64	43	43	+0	Up	+$14	06-02 20:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	2	$64	43	43	+0	Down	+$14	06-01 23:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 22:47:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	53	62¢	$33	0x89600f…
08-30 00:01:58	Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x7e89da…
08-29 23:57:22	Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	Yes	BUY	513	39¢	$200	0xc87288…
06-19 22:06:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 22:05 UTC	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x4bc3f2…
06-17 15:56:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 15:55 UTC	Up	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x764a42…
06-17 15:54:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x264dfa…
06-16 15:30:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 15:25 UTC	Up	SELL	36	99¢	$35	0xe248a6…
06-16 15:25:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0x963ad4…
06-02 23:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x5547c4…
06-02 23:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x2687aa…
06-02 23:30:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x318b59…
06-02 23:19:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	4	97¢	$3	0x8a689a…
06-02 23:18:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x164876…
06-02 23:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x523074…
06-02 23:03:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	SELL	8	97¢	$7	0xd03153…
06-02 23:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x241689…
06-02 22:20:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xb51c4b…
06-02 22:12:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	33	93¢	$31	0xf1130f…
06-02 22:11:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	33	76¢	$25	0x5ed0d3…
06-02 21:55:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x0d0cd5…
06-02 21:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	SELL	36	90¢	$32	0x165a4a…
06-02 21:46:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0x992044…
06-02 21:42:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	33	92¢	$31	0x246cbf…
06-02 21:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x5eea75…
06-02 21:31:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0xa2d3af…
06-02 21:10:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xff08f1…
06-02 21:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	30	95¢	$29	0xda85a3…
06-02 21:08:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0xe29b51…
06-02 20:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x5d4eab…
06-02 20:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0xed1d05…
06-02 20:47:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	SELL	80	75¢	$60	0xd65086…
06-02 20:46:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x195656…
06-02 20:46:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x5fbb39…
06-02 20:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	36	83¢	$30	0x36512a…
06-02 20:40:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0xc4cb42…
06-02 20:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	43	90¢	$39	0x791454…
06-02 20:36:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xe8a56f…
06-02 20:31:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	32	96¢	$30	0xb33e62…
06-02 20:30:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x009ea3…
06-02 03:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x18de93…
06-02 03:15:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	108	83¢	$90	0x66be53…
06-02 03:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x8399c8…
06-02 03:15:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0xf6f8f0…
06-02 03:10:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0xca534b…
06-02 03:08:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	33	90¢	$30	0x69e6aa…
06-02 03:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x4f6238…
06-02 03:01:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0x376f69…
06-02 02:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	49	81¢	$40	0xce48ad…
06-02 02:55:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x9c6fb0…
06-02 02:55:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x8c95d8…
06-02 02:51:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	SELL	34	94¢	$32	0x73e38d…
06-02 02:50:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0xd32885…
06-02 02:41:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	37	90¢	$33	0xadf4a6…
06-02 02:40:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xb44aa5…
06-02 02:36:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	SELL	41	88¢	$36	0x44382f…
06-02 02:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x2b57b9…
06-02 02:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0x356ead…
06-02 02:23:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xb00154…
06-02 02:21:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	SELL	42	91¢	$38	0x3c7772…
06-02 02:20:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x4580fd…
06-02 02:17:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	SELL	37	93¢	$34	0xd6cd20…
06-02 02:15:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x835178…
06-02 02:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	169	78¢	$132	0x20a2e3…
06-02 02:12:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0x3b1a38…
06-02 02:12:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0xef157c…
06-02 02:06:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	SELL	80	94¢	$75	0x62f23e…
06-02 02:05:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0xab5cbb…
06-02 02:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x7511f0…
06-02 02:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x9e0813…
06-02 01:57:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	40	91¢	$37	0xe62ebe…
06-02 01:56:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x185465…
06-02 01:54:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x0017a5…
06-02 01:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	SELL	44	82¢	$36	0x5cbd00…
06-02 01:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x8f6385…
06-02 01:49:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x2ad06e…
06-02 01:47:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	SELL	38	97¢	$37	0x8f342f…
06-02 01:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0xa0618a…
06-02 01:43:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x8d8509…
06-02 01:41:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	41	91¢	$37	0xd6d3f5…
06-02 01:40:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xdfc954…
06-02 01:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x22d532…
06-02 01:28:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	47	73¢	$34	0x7a40ad…
06-02 01:26:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x2d3be2…
06-02 01:23:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x4ad857…
06-02 01:22:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	SELL	66	49¢	$32	0x845625…
06-02 01:20:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	66	38¢	$25	0x5a0406…
06-02 01:19:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	SELL	65	96¢	$62	0x75a2ea…
06-02 01:18:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x51e9ef…
06-02 01:12:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0x316fcb…
06-02 01:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x02bdd6…
06-02 01:08:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x77a47e…
06-02 01:06:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xa00a47…
06-02 01:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	SELL	43	86¢	$37	0xd5a43b…
06-02 01:01:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xd71a35…
06-02 00:58:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	47	69¢	$32	0xec7081…
06-02 00:55:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	47	54¢	$25	0x7d9ada…
06-02 00:52:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0x228c7d…
06-02 00:46:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x16301f…
06-02 00:40:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0xb2616c…
06-02 00:38:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	SELL	43	81¢	$35	0x132741…