Nervous-Formula — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$66

Unrealized P&L

+$16

Hit rate

71.6%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

69 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$438

$438 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$86

6 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-06 04:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

72% 62% +$54

Other

21% 50% $-6

Sports

7% 100% +$18

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	+91	$25	42¢	$39	+$13	05-04 23:04
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?	Yes	-24	$-19	80¢	$-20	$-1	05-04 20:02
Will the Republican Party win the LA-02 House seat?	Yes	+30	$9	42¢	$13	+$4	05-05 03:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	+14	$6	88¢	$12	+$5	05-06 04:30
Will Ryan Fazio win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	-6	$-4	52¢	$-3	+$1	05-05 18:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	+14	$6	1¢	$0	$-6	05-06 04:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	1	$35	67	0	+67	open	—	05-05 08:26
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees	1	$31	49	0	+49	Yes	+$18	05-04 23:24
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	1	$25	91	0	+91	open	—	05-04 23:04
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?	1	$19	0	24	-24	open	—	05-04 20:02
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	3	$14	27	26	+1	open	—	05-05 14:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	2	$13	32	0	+32	open	—	05-05 06:45
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	4	$13	10	28	-18	open	—	05-06 02:44
BNB Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	1	$12	24	0	+24	Up	$-12	05-04 20:09
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	2	$12	27	0	+27	Up	+$16	05-05 00:49
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	2	$11	21	0	+21	open	—	05-05 08:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	2	$10	24	0	+24	open	—	05-05 08:26
Will the Republican Party win the LA-02 House seat?	1	$9	30	0	+30	open	—	05-05 03:22
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	1	$7	0	13	-13	Down	+$7	05-05 02:45
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	1	$7	14	0	+14	open	—	05-05 22:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	1	$7	15	0	+15	open	—	05-05 22:30
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	1	$7	15	0	+15	Up	+$8	05-05 02:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	1	$7	14	0	+14	open	—	05-05 22:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	1	$6	14	0	+14	Up	+$7	05-05 00:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	1	$6	14	0	+14	Up	+$7	05-05 03:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	1	$6	14	0	+14	open	—	05-06 04:30
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	1	$6	14	0	+14	open	—	05-05 09:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	1	$6	14	0	+14	open	—	05-06 04:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	1	$6	15	0	+15	Up	+$9	05-05 02:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	1	$6	19	0	+19	Up	+$13	05-05 01:00
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	1	$6	14	0	+14	open	—	05-05 09:15
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	2	$6	14	0	+14	Down	$-6	05-05 02:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	1	$6	0	18	-18	open	—	05-05 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	1	$6	14	0	+14	open	—	05-05 12:15
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	1	$6	14	0	+14	open	—	05-05 19:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	1	$6	13	0	+13	open	—	05-05 21:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 04:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	47¢	$6	0x411ed3…
05-06 04:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	47¢	$6	0xbe2db8…
05-06 02:44:28	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	14	20¢	$3	0xca713f…
05-06 02:44:28	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	9	30¢	$3	0xf78ad1…
05-06 02:44:00	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x6fd9e3…
05-06 02:39:22	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x191bf5…
05-06 02:08:54	BNB Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x6f3395…
05-06 00:59:16	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	11	29¢	$3	0x2d84a3…
05-06 00:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	34¢	$5	0x1e6313…
05-05 22:30:16	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	55¢	$7	0xa7011e…
05-05 22:30:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	15	50¢	$7	0x882835…
05-05 22:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0x3cb451…
05-05 21:45:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x3529da…
05-05 21:30:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0xa93ccc…
05-05 21:15:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0xb91c75…
05-05 19:45:06	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	45¢	$6	0x02073c…
05-05 18:41:10	Will Ryan Fazio win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0x9085fd…
05-05 17:29:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	18	34¢	$6	0x5511a7…
05-05 14:29:38	BNB Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0x7de630…
05-05 14:29:34	BNB Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	17	1¢	$0	0x1cc54f…
05-05 14:27:22	BNB Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	27	50¢	$13	0x7973b5…
05-05 12:45:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	13	45¢	$6	0x2717e1…
05-05 12:30:34	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	SELL	9	62¢	$5	0x138f6a…
05-05 12:15:24	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x6226db…
05-05 12:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	45¢	$6	0xec286e…
05-05 12:00:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	39¢	$5	0xaa4cc4…
05-05 11:15:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0x56bf2d…
05-05 10:00:14	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x9e715e…
05-05 09:30:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	47¢	$6	0xf2fc23…
05-05 09:15:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x70343c…
05-05 09:15:16	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	14	46¢	$6	0x04ddeb…
05-05 09:00:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x111547…
05-05 08:30:18	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xc40820…
05-05 08:30:14	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x157982…
05-05 08:30:10	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0x423eb2…
05-05 08:26:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	42¢	$7	0x28480e…
05-05 08:26:12	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	67	53¢	$35	0x3689b6…
05-05 08:15:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0xda669f…
05-05 07:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	44¢	$6	0xa76c1f…
05-05 07:10:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	14	31¢	$4	0x8f06ee…
05-05 07:01:00	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xb43522…
05-05 06:55:18	BNB Up or Down - May 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	25	11¢	$3	0x14c200…
05-05 06:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	37¢	$6	0x79f211…
05-05 06:45:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	43¢	$7	0x9e3f51…
05-05 06:00:08	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0xb48d58…
05-05 05:35:00	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x299e40…
05-05 05:15:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x3c626d…
05-05 03:22:58	Will the Republican Party win the LA-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xdefb55…
05-05 03:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	48¢	$6	0x25df7b…
05-05 02:45:34	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	13	58¢	$7	0xa2da80…
05-05 02:19:40	BNB Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xaaf18e…
05-05 02:15:22	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x910417…
05-05 02:15:16	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xe6e98e…
05-05 02:15:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xbf0c21…
05-05 02:15:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	15	42¢	$6	0x2ad4b9…
05-05 02:15:08	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0xf1cb2c…
05-05 02:15:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	38¢	$3	0x121669…
05-05 01:45:20	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0xee80e1…
05-05 01:45:18	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x28a296…
05-05 01:00:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	19	33¢	$6	0x802794…
05-05 00:50:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xc74cfa…
05-05 00:49:50	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	18	37¢	$7	0x0fc2b7…
05-05 00:45:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	48¢	$6	0x56c7d3…
05-05 00:45:08	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xd36891…
05-05 00:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	40¢	$6	0x93a01e…
05-04 23:24:42	Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees	Yes	BUY	49	63¢	$31	0x5c3153…
05-04 23:04:52	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	BUY	91	28¢	$25	0x7c2048…
05-04 20:09:36	BNB Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	24	49¢	$12	0x6e19d7…
05-04 20:02:40	Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?	Yes	SELL	24	77¢	$19	0x6b48e6…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	27	$658	75	05-06 04:44
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	24	$4.08K	248	05-06 04:44
Minty-Complicity 0xee55…7b04	21	$605	85	05-06 04:24
Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc	18	$2.19K	93	05-05 22:30
Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4	17	$1.65K	57	05-05 22:35
Youthful-Movement 0x8da4…f3d1	11	$757	75	05-06 04:44
Funny-Keyboarding 0xa665…01e3	7	$509	18	05-06 00:00
Impassioned-Botany 0x9826…983b	6	$973	7	05-05 22:35