Hard-To-Find-Methane — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$83

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

5.7%

Resolved

Trades

4,236

lifetime

Volume

$60.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-12 06:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

52% 0% $-83

Other

37% 100% +$0

Crypto

6% — —

Sports

3% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 209 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	38	$2.0K	1,209	1,129	+80	open	—	06-04 00:34
will scottie scheffler win the 2026 masters tournament	116	$2.0K	1,788	544	+1,244	open	—	04-09 13:35
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	34	$1.9K	1,512	637	+876	open	—	03-24 21:27
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	79	$1.8K	1,187	1,187	+0	open	—	08-10 13:38
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	182	$1.6K	1,762	1,697	+65	open	—	06-19 19:49
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	47	$1.5K	934	934	-0	open	—	07-21 15:23
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	62	$1.4K	881	936	-55	open	—	05-24 06:09
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	107	$1.3K	1,254	1,399	-145	open	—	06-15 03:06
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	114	$1.3K	1,063	1,170	-107	open	—	05-31 03:58
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	164	$1.2K	2,004	694	+1,310	open	—	06-15 05:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	135	$1.2K	2,095	2,372	-276	open	—	05-29 18:51
will hyperliquid dip to 20 before 2026	4	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	01-01 04:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	94	$1.2K	1,241	1,200	+41	open	—	07-12 00:35
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	73	$1.1K	857	983	-126	open	—	05-29 17:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	72	$1.1K	871	1,209	-337	open	—	06-26 10:54
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	62	$961	707	568	+138	open	—	07-24 21:02
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	72	$917	991	175	+816	open	—	08-04 15:47
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	13	$903	600	442	+158	open	—	02-04 18:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	112	$891	1,281	770	+512	open	—	06-15 13:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	132	$846	1,435	1,445	-10	open	—	05-25 17:05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	17	$835	800	648	+152	Yes	$-83	02-06 11:36
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	30	$819	465	465	+0	open	—	07-13 21:03
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	37	$799	861	0	+861	open	—	03-30 18:42
ucl tot atm1 2026 03 18 atm1	24	$716	985	102	+883	open	—	03-18 20:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	52	$695	1,048	1,048	+0	open	—	08-08 08:30
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	29	$692	491	501	-10	open	—	08-07 19:40
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	46	$652	601	601	+0	open	—	06-18 18:43
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	46	$626	446	446	+0	open	—	07-07 19:19
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	2	$585	0	600	-600	open	—	01-18 09:53
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	4	$577	300	300	+0	open	—	02-06 11:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 06:27:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xb02d43…
08-12 06:22:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x6f3576…
08-12 05:35:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xac89d9…
08-12 05:31:15	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xcedf00…
08-12 04:58:36	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	13	73¢	$9	0xae0ccf…
08-12 04:16:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	131	98¢	$128	0xed027e…
08-12 04:13:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	131	97¢	$127	0xa812a3…
08-12 03:24:13	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x125943…
08-12 03:22:13	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	0	71¢	$0	0x8f95f1…
08-12 03:15:36	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	61	70¢	$43	0x77d29a…
08-12 03:15:34	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x050582…
08-11 15:08:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x9715e7…
08-11 15:08:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xa1e518…
08-11 10:19:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xd73ed8…
08-11 10:09:22	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	15	81¢	$12	0xa449fe…
08-11 08:59:19	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xe61158…
08-11 07:33:37	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x5b629a…
08-10 16:22:22	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	21	74¢	$16	0x9f16f0…
08-10 16:18:03	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x161800…
08-10 16:17:42	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	18	73¢	$13	0xed9f35…
08-10 16:07:21	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x3498c5…
08-10 16:03:03	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	39	73¢	$29	0xa6d5aa…
08-10 15:48:01	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	28	73¢	$21	0x2506f8…
08-10 15:31:21	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0x175e9e…
08-10 15:28:21	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0xb6e74a…
08-10 15:03:01	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	39	73¢	$29	0x8d637a…
08-10 13:55:01	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x91c23e…
08-10 13:55:01	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x8d0f24…
08-10 13:55:01	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x72c963…
08-10 13:38:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	242	96¢	$233	0x14013d…
08-10 13:37:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	119	96¢	$114	0xfb57a7…
08-10 13:19:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	5	96¢	$4	0xdf332a…
08-10 12:50:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9c3deb…
08-10 12:49:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x75ab8b…
08-10 12:43:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	28	96¢	$27	0x77cc98…
08-10 12:40:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x84bf22…
08-10 12:09:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	83	96¢	$80	0x1714ca…
08-10 11:49:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x432881…
08-10 11:46:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x403059…
08-10 11:41:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0x6bcc41…
08-10 11:39:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x0709c0…
08-10 11:38:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0xd03e75…
08-10 11:38:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	89	96¢	$86	0xabe7c1…
08-10 11:38:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x93a791…
08-10 11:21:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0xd37c78…
08-10 11:20:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x589aeb…
08-09 02:11:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	90	7¢	$6	0xe1de6e…
08-09 02:09:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	90	7¢	$6	0xf786e2…
08-08 18:49:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	95	36¢	$34	0x5e24d0…
08-08 18:01:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xf71e29…
08-08 15:41:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x6d4344…
08-08 15:15:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	18	42¢	$8	0xa27a87…
08-08 15:13:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	21	42¢	$9	0xb4221b…
08-08 15:11:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0xf0ef5c…
08-08 15:10:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	0	42¢	$0	0xefa370…
08-08 14:05:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xd283a3…
08-08 11:03:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x7f68cb…
08-08 08:30:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	169	40¢	$68	0x65787a…
08-08 08:29:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	93	40¢	$37	0x09be1a…
08-08 08:20:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	55	40¢	$22	0xe51ef0…
08-08 06:57:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0x80dad9…
08-08 06:57:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	200	40¢	$80	0x4bf1f3…
08-08 06:57:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	55	40¢	$22	0xf0d7ff…
08-08 06:57:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	4	40¢	$1	0x357f3c…
08-08 06:57:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0x1bfc7e…
08-07 19:46:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	16	40¢	$6	0x5da8b3…
08-07 19:40:12	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	238	78¢	$186	0x4846f0…
08-07 19:37:52	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	238	78¢	$186	0x0d02a2…
08-07 18:54:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	18	51¢	$9	0xd98cde…
08-07 18:48:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xa8f13b…
08-07 17:38:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x263b5c…
08-07 16:54:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x25ed72…
08-07 16:08:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	13	50¢	$6	0x83b365…
08-07 16:01:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x35f4aa…
08-07 02:47:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x84cd50…
08-06 22:49:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x89f098…
08-06 20:20:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	6	88¢	$6	0x112fdf…
08-06 18:04:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x8f3eb3…
08-06 17:18:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xb8c488…
08-06 16:37:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x21df54…
08-06 16:01:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0x1ca8d4…
08-06 15:51:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x96c02c…
08-06 13:16:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0x8e0223…
08-06 12:52:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x582b63…
08-06 12:23:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xf02a76…
08-06 12:19:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x1dfbf4…
08-06 11:58:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	40	39¢	$16	0xf122bd…
08-06 08:39:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xf17301…
08-06 08:12:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x2399ac…
08-06 08:11:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x700e9f…
08-06 06:29:50	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0xf2710a…
08-06 06:29:50	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	32	90¢	$29	0x5213c2…
08-06 06:29:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0xd9ac04…
08-06 06:28:29	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0xb26d4d…
08-06 06:27:53	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	32	90¢	$29	0xa09eb9…
08-06 01:45:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x9c1ee9…
08-05 21:04:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	13	86¢	$11	0x113a32…
08-05 20:59:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	4	86¢	$3	0x2ce2ab…
08-05 20:54:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	8	86¢	$7	0x955b6a…
08-05 20:45:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	24	85¢	$20	0xae8cae…