Cautious-Ziggurat — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$231

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

84.6%

Resolved (30d)

3,956

Trades (30d)

4,329

11,890 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$81.5K

$188.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$15

1 position

First seen

2026-04-20

last 11-01 00:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 102 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 79% +$1,158

Other

4% 86% -$37

Politics

0% 25% +$26

Sports

0% 50% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 248 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	—	+15	$15	98¢	$15	+$0	11-01 01:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:05 UTC	74	$1.8K	924	922	+2	Down	+$5	07-29 19:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 17:45 UTC	12	$1.4K	684	684	+0	Down	+$6	07-21 17:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 18:55 UTC	13	$920	465	465	+0	Down	+$4	07-29 18:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 22:00 UTC	7	$918	464	464	+0	Up	+$0	07-18 22:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 21:15 UTC	3	$910	460	460	+0	Up	+$0	07-18 21:19
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	164	$857	483	483	+0	No	+$27	05-16 22:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 13:10 UTC	5	$675	339	339	+0	Down	+$3	07-18 13:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 12:00 UTC	10	$665	335	335	+0	Down	+$1	07-20 12:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 22:35 UTC	4	$623	325	325	+0	Down	-$21	07-17 22:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	5	$600	383	220	+164	Up	+$3	07-29 02:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 00:35 UTC	3	$587	297	297	+0	Down	-$1	07-18 00:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 00:20 UTC	9	$578	292	292	-0	Down	$0	07-18 00:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 13:15 UTC	11	$564	288	288	+0	Up	-$6	07-17 13:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	5	$562	283	283	+0	Up	+$2	07-27 18:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 13:25 UTC	15	$507	341	171	+171	Down	+$2	07-20 13:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 23:40 UTC	11	$506	254	254	+0	Up	+$2	07-26 23:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-11 18:00 UTC	50	$503	867	867	+0	Down	+$233	07-11 18:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 01:50 UTC	21	$499	1,068	1,053	+15	Up	+$239	07-21 01:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 14:15 UTC	5	$489	252	252	+0	Down	-$7	07-17 14:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 14:30 UTC	4	$483	257	242	+14	Down	-$7	07-17 14:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 15:45 UTC	6	$482	248	248	+0	Down	-$10	07-17 15:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:20 UTC	13	$478	240	240	+0	Down	+$2	07-29 19:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 13:50 UTC	2	$475	242	242	+0	Up	-$5	07-17 13:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 22:25 UTC	1	$470	475	0	+475	Down	+$5	07-18 22:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 15:20 UTC	4	$468	236	236	+0	Up	+$0	07-17 15:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 00:35 UTC	8	$468	237	233	+4	Down	+$2	07-27 00:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 22:20 UTC	2	$466	471	0	+471	Down	+$5	07-18 22:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 21:55 UTC	1	$458	464	0	+464	Down	+$6	07-18 21:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 21:20 UTC	9	$455	460	0	+460	Down	+$5	07-18 21:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 02:10 UTC	92	$454	742	742	+0	Down	+$254	07-21 02:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 01:53:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x0714ed…
11-01 01:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x4562c6…
11-01 01:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x52164d…
11-01 01:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x92a584…
11-01 01:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x611d37…
11-01 01:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	SELL	30	92¢	$28	0xa121a3…
11-01 01:14:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x3a0bd2…
11-01 01:09:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x653b12…
11-01 01:03:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xdadd66…
11-01 00:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x2333a9…
11-01 00:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x015223…
11-01 00:53:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xb1af19…
11-01 00:49:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x9907b6…
11-01 00:44:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x76adf8…
11-01 00:39:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x9a1497…
11-01 00:33:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xb64405…
11-01 00:28:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xe05854…
11-01 00:09:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xb1c9c6…
11-01 00:03:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x24f902…
10-31 23:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x19695f…
10-31 23:39:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd09939…
10-31 23:34:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x8db9cb…
10-31 23:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xba4123…
10-31 23:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xe60e3b…
10-31 23:19:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x3b5430…
10-31 23:08:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x6c49ef…
10-31 23:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xf6d215…
10-31 22:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x1b78dc…
10-31 22:53:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xde4829…
10-31 22:47:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x2632fc…
10-31 22:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0x2c1b40…
10-31 22:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x92fe7e…
10-31 22:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x40a64f…
10-31 22:33:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x42101a…
10-31 22:24:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xd12130…
10-31 22:19:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x3abc10…
10-31 22:13:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xe59b6a…
10-31 22:08:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xbd9112…
10-31 22:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x8e348b…
10-31 21:57:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x337225…
10-31 21:49:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x024f76…
10-31 21:39:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x0f4aba…
10-31 21:29:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	31	91¢	$28	0xccdb00…
10-31 21:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x5edbb4…
10-31 21:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xe2c1a1…
10-31 21:14:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	31	91¢	$28	0x3b507b…
10-31 21:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xf4af5b…
10-31 20:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x099522…
10-31 20:49:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xc9ed0c…
10-31 20:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x8b3898…
10-31 20:39:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x1646b7…
10-31 20:34:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xdc08de…
10-31 20:18:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x1bfb76…
10-31 20:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x45213a…
10-31 20:09:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x97fe94…
10-31 20:02:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	15	99¢	$14	0xd16bbf…
10-31 19:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x9b8552…
10-31 19:48:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x0e2509…
10-31 19:44:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x040fe8…
10-31 19:39:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x1c9224…
10-31 19:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xf041c5…
10-31 19:23:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x1ec1b5…
10-31 18:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x14a12b…
10-31 18:44:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x37d743…
10-31 18:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0adbf8…
10-31 18:24:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x0c6a37…
10-31 18:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xcd1fcd…
10-31 18:14:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xafbf1e…
10-31 18:09:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x2438fd…
10-31 17:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x29ce5b…
10-31 17:44:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xb8f6d9…
10-31 17:39:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xf8fd8b…
10-31 17:34:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x77b03a…
10-31 17:18:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x1dd9c6…
10-31 17:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xd7a418…
10-31 16:59:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x2ac3ce…
10-31 16:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x1e932f…
10-31 16:49:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xf092ed…
10-31 16:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xa909cd…
10-31 16:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x20757c…
10-31 16:27:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0cd6ed…
10-31 16:24:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xa1e80f…
10-31 16:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x05a55c…
10-31 16:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x85f4c1…
10-31 16:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x6654d5…
10-31 15:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xbbfc62…
10-31 15:54:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xa1aa59…
10-31 15:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xd709cd…
10-31 15:34:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xb64531…
10-31 15:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xf38943…
10-31 15:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x9556c1…
10-31 15:09:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x4a4881…
10-31 15:04:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x53d400…
10-31 14:58:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xb6280d…
10-31 14:54:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	30	95¢	$29	0x558740…
10-31 14:54:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x668447…
10-31 14:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x2dc467…
10-31 14:44:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xe92266…
10-31 14:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x66072a…
10-31 14:29:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0xeeebb9…