Verifiable-Announcement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$924

Unrealized P&L

+$221

Hit rate

71.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$41.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$437

Open exposure

$3.54K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 11-01 06:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Politics

55% 87% -$2,468

Other

44% 87% +$1,536

Crypto

1% 100% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes		+3,542	$3,316	100¢	$3.5K	+$221	10-20 18:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	1	$5.3K	5,365	0	+5,365	Yes	+$21	08-15 02:55
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	1	$4.7K	4,685	0	+4,685	Yes	+$9	07-21 13:50
over 30m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129610 824	4	$4.7K	5,160	0	+5,160	Yes	+$507	07-24 15:42
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	1	$4.4K	4,558	0	+4,558	Yes	+$160	08-02 14:43
Iran leadership change by October 31?	8	$3.7K	1,866	1,866	+0	No	-$11	10-11 15:53
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	2	$3.7K	2,090	2,090	+0	No	-$21	10-05 12:14
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	9	$3.3K	3,542	0	+3,542	open	—	10-20 18:17
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	1	$2.7K	3,675	0	+3,675	No	+$992	09-12 09:46
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	5	$2.7K	2,754	0	+2,754	No	-$2,683	08-28 08:29
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	16	$2.1K	3,546	3,546	+0	open	—	10-19 10:53
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	3	$761	786	0	+786	Yes	+$24	08-02 13:42
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 19 2026 486	1	$436	437	0	+437	No	+$1	03-24 20:28
Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	1	$288	299	0	+299	No	+$11	10-09 02:55
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	3	$288	299	0	+299	No	+$11	10-09 02:47
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$237	119	119	+0	No	+$0	07-17 16:35
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	6	$214	221	0	+221	No	+$7	01-30 08:19
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	2	$214	214	0	+214	No	+$0	01-30 07:57
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$209	104	104	+0	Yes	+$0	05-13 22:54
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$201	226	0	+226	Yes	+$25	01-02 09:23
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$201	202	0	+202	No	+$1	01-02 09:23
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	1	$118	118	0	+118	No	+$0	06-20 02:26
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31?	1	$118	118	0	+118	Yes	+$0	06-18 01:07
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	1	$118	118	0	+118	No	+$0	07-03 05:52
pedro porro 20260609173616765	1	$117	118	0	+118	No	+$1	06-15 15:15
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	1	$111	112	0	+112	Yes	+$0	05-25 04:39
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	1	$109	111	0	+111	No	+$2	05-21 01:55
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	3	$104	109	0	+109	No	+$5	05-14 00:20
iran closes its airspace by june 8	1	$58	58	0	+58	Yes	+$0	06-08 08:34
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	1	$56	58	0	+58	No	+$2	06-04 15:40
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	1	$56	59	0	+59	No	+$3	06-04 15:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 06:20:09	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0x775eea…
10-20 18:17:48	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	956	93¢	$889	0xedce59…
10-19 10:53:50	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	829	25¢	$207	0x5786ba…
10-19 10:49:17	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	25¢	$2	0x2395a8…
10-19 10:49:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	800	25¢	$200	0x43344a…
10-19 10:46:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	25¢	$0	0x97c973…
10-19 10:45:14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0xee75dd…
10-19 10:44:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	25¢	$50	0x01274f…
10-19 10:42:32	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	185	25¢	$46	0x56423e…
10-19 10:39:26	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	25¢	$22	0x3b87b2…
10-19 10:39:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,394	25¢	$349	0xb4e709…
10-15 12:12:37	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x0e6a3b…
10-13 03:22:02	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	94¢	$87	0xe62884…
10-12 20:14:26	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	94¢	$78	0xa3255c…
10-12 18:56:35	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x3e6cb1…
10-12 16:42:50	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,421	94¢	$1,336	0xbaf72d…
10-11 15:53:19	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	281	98¢	$275	0xc7250f…
10-11 13:09:54	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xc8705c…
10-11 12:14:51	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	1,580	98¢	$1,548	0x360657…
10-11 10:55:11	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x43ce6d…
10-10 05:45:54	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	643	93¢	$598	0xf523fe…
10-09 02:55:53	Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	299	96¢	$288	0x376181…
10-09 02:47:24	Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0x381e60…
10-09 02:47:17	Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	280	96¢	$270	0x2bf774…
10-09 02:47:17	Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x108446…
10-05 19:04:22	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$16	0x5405a0…
10-05 19:04:11	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	1,643	99¢	$1,620	0x1b3930…
10-05 14:35:49	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0xb55c9f…
10-05 13:54:59	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	35¢	$77	0x6f9ae8…
10-05 13:53:58	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	35¢	$56	0x8fbb60…
10-05 13:53:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	35¢	$28	0xc60e4c…
10-05 13:51:46	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	35¢	$42	0x02017e…
10-05 13:48:53	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	35¢	$88	0x62db35…
10-05 13:47:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	215	35¢	$75	0xdf6812…
10-05 13:25:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,500	35¢	$875	0xe3b01b…
10-05 12:14:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	2,090	87¢	$1,819	0xbd78cb…
10-05 10:28:41	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	2,090	88¢	$1,840	0x107fe3…
10-05 10:28:07	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x8449e7…
10-05 10:27:47	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	107	99¢	$106	0x5ae269…
09-12 09:46:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,675	73¢	$2,683	0xffec7d…
08-28 08:29:16	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	951	97¢	$927	0x28efab…
08-28 06:11:49	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	777	97¢	$757	0x0b7801…
08-28 06:05:04	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	350	97¢	$341	0xab71b8…
08-28 05:51:09	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x81b1df…
08-28 03:54:33	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	576	97¢	$561	0x2859ce…
08-15 02:55:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	5,365	100¢	$5,344	0xd809e9…
08-02 14:43:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	4,558	97¢	$4,398	0x492077…
08-02 13:42:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x81368f…
08-02 13:34:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	767	97¢	$743	0x64ab28…
08-02 13:32:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x78cb06…
07-24 15:42:27	over 30m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129610 824	Yes	BUY	4,891	90¢	$4,402	0x221827…
07-24 15:41:43	over 30m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129610 824	Yes	BUY	29	89¢	$25	0xff922b…
07-24 15:40:10	over 30m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129610 824	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0xcec316…
07-24 15:40:01	over 30m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129610 824	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xfa9f97…
07-21 13:50:48	Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	Yes	BUY	4,685	100¢	$4,676	0xa464db…
07-17 16:35:57	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	Yes	BUY	42	90¢	$37	0xc0a468…
07-17 16:35:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	119	100¢	$118	0xaafc35…
07-13 12:56:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	119	100¢	$118	0x581e21…
07-03 05:52:41	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0xd0b964…
06-20 02:26:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0x3f9b01…
06-18 01:07:43	Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31?	Yes	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0xb6b143…
06-15 15:15:34	pedro porro 20260609173616765	No	BUY	118	100¢	$117	0xa727b1…
06-08 08:34:45	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	58	100¢	$58	0xd046a0…
06-04 15:40:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	58	96¢	$56	0x2b0840…
06-04 15:39:55	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	BUY	59	95¢	$56	0x578d53…
05-25 04:39:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	112	100¢	$111	0x39d789…
05-21 01:55:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	111	98¢	$109	0xf320f4…
05-14 00:20:38	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	99	96¢	$95	0x332cbf…
05-14 00:06:03	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x81e36a…
05-13 23:31:21	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0xd3e8d9…
05-13 22:54:27	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	104	100¢	$104	0x22d196…
05-12 15:49:08	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x8f47b9…
04-25 05:37:52	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2b628b…
04-25 04:22:48	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x8dc9cc…
04-25 04:07:26	Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x27f5ae…
04-25 03:54:38	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4ef217…
04-25 03:28:34	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe33c0d…
04-25 03:19:18	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$10	0x6fd22b…
04-22 03:32:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0xacdfe2…
04-14 21:54:00	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	No	BUY	26	99¢	$25	0xede5a2…
04-14 07:13:27	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x814685…
04-10 13:55:51	Will UK strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	52	95¢	$50	0x487c48…
04-10 13:36:33	Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x3521d2…
03-24 20:28:05	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 19 2026 486	No	BUY	437	100¢	$436	0xe1d6bd…
01-30 08:19:34	will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	No	BUY	118	97¢	$115	0x96bd06…
01-30 08:08:30	will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0x9029f1…
01-30 08:08:20	will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x417aea…
01-30 08:04:34	will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xa9ae31…
01-30 07:57:12	will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	No	BUY	190	100¢	$190	0x51206d…
01-30 07:57:04	will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x5bd789…
01-30 07:55:54	will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	No	BUY	18	97¢	$18	0xac0557…
01-30 07:54:48	will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x4df5da…
01-02 09:23:21	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	226	89¢	$201	0xbe043c…
01-02 09:23:09	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	202	99¢	$201	0x99d680…