Black-Prune — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$69

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

64.1%

Resolved

108

Trades

409

lifetime

Volume

$4.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$114

1 position

First seen

2026-03-04

last 11-12 18:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Other

45% 46% -$10

Politics

42% 56% -$18

Crypto

12% 51% -$21

Tech

1% 0% -$22

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No		+123	$112	92¢	$114	+$2	11-12 18:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	8	$213	158	158	+0	No	+$3	06-01 03:11
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	2	$210	114	114	+0	open	—	11-12 18:26
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	2	$192	102	102	+0	No	+$6	11-01 16:53
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	2	$167	94	94	+0	No	+$17	10-31 19:03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	2	$146	84	84	+0	No	+$4	10-01 16:20
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	2	$133	71	71	+0	No	+$9	09-30 23:05
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	1	$112	123	0	+123	open	—	11-12 18:26
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	4	$109	74	74	+0	Yes	+$19	04-15 15:00
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	2	$107	59	59	+0	No	+$3	07-02 21:04
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	6	$101	87	87	+0	Yes	-$13	06-14 14:39
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$98	55	55	+0	No	+$6	06-20 15:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	4	$80	62	62	+0	No	$0	05-28 15:04
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	4	$74	57	56	+0	No	+$4	04-27 03:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	4	$73	52	52	+0	No	+$3	05-24 23:02
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	4	$70	64	64	+0	Yes	-$10	06-01 12:49
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	2	$70	40	40	+0	No	+$10	04-24 02:04
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	6	$70	72	72	+0	No	-$14	05-16 22:55
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	3	$69	44	44	+0	Yes	+$9	03-07 17:55
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	2	$68	54	54	+0	Yes	-$2	03-07 23:42
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$66	56	56	+0	No	-$2	04-08 00:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	2	$65	39	39	+0	Yes	+$5	04-17 13:21
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$64	36	36	+0	Yes	+$4	06-08 02:01
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026?	2	$64	40	40	+0	Yes	+$10	04-10 03:37
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	5	$63	55	55	+0	No	-$7	05-29 23:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$59	68	68	+0	No	-$5	06-14 21:55
will fidesz kdnp win at least 90 seats	2	$59	47	47	+0	No	-$5	04-08 15:28
israel closes its airspace by august 31	1	$55	62	0	+62	No	+$8	07-02 21:04
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$54	29	29	+0	No	+$4	04-28 15:02
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	2	$49	29	29	+0	No	+$9	06-07 21:00
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	2	$45	47	47	+0	open	—	05-26 18:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 18:26:49	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	123	91¢	$112	0x6ad87d…
11-12 18:26:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	114	98¢	$112	0x7f96f0…
11-01 16:53:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	114	86¢	$98	0x4b26ec…
11-01 16:53:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	No	SELL	102	97¢	$99	0xf80ffc…
10-31 19:36:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	102	91¢	$93	0x49f47d…
10-31 19:03:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	94	98¢	$92	0xd9b702…
10-01 16:22:20	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	94	80¢	$75	0x64fafd…
10-01 16:20:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	84	90¢	$75	0xd19dfd…
09-30 23:06:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	84	85¢	$71	0xe93a88…
09-30 23:05:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	71	100¢	$71	0x2286b2…
09-08 22:50:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	71	87¢	$62	0xb2c107…
07-02 21:04:52	israel closes its airspace by august 31	No	BUY	62	88¢	$55	0x4f9e4e…
07-02 21:04:04	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	59	93¢	$55	0x7dd839…
06-25 11:56:40	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	BUY	59	88¢	$52	0xdfb54d…
06-20 15:46:43	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	55	94¢	$52	0xad6756…
06-14 22:02:12	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0xf7406b…
06-14 22:01:15	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	38	6¢	$2	0x88dfd4…
06-14 21:55:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	19	70¢	$13	0x5790c5…
06-14 21:51:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0x94cd37…
06-14 21:50:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	49	29¢	$14	0x9909b7…
06-14 21:48:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	49	37¢	$18	0xef7684…
06-14 14:39:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	56¢	$19	0x5bdc92…
06-14 14:33:31	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 18 2026	No	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0x31feb9…
06-14 14:33:00	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	26	76¢	$20	0xfe75e8…
06-14 01:59:37	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	26	80¢	$21	0x2c3802…
06-14 01:59:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0xcff614…
06-12 12:20:28	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	43	5¢	$2	0x710629…
06-11 21:20:15	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	33	7¢	$2	0xff4b3e…
06-10 23:18:57	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x51b0dd…
06-10 23:15:06	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xad4c77…
06-09 17:14:24	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?	No	SELL	32	41¢	$13	0xf7538a…
06-09 14:18:36	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?	No	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x31e53b…
06-09 04:16:19	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	26	91¢	$24	0x01c37c…
06-09 04:05:42	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	38	79¢	$30	0x57842f…
06-08 18:36:42	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x39346f…
06-08 18:24:42	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	43	5¢	$2	0xba952d…
06-08 02:01:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	36	94¢	$34	0xffce67…
06-07 21:00:49	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x4aaea1…
06-03 23:41:18	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?	No	BUY	31	66¢	$21	0x65997e…
06-03 23:32:21	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	No	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x3eb65d…
06-01 12:49:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	No	SELL	32	57¢	$18	0xfa02cb…
06-01 12:49:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x56a17b…
06-01 03:42:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	No	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0xc9e8e9…
06-01 03:42:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	Yes	SELL	32	38¢	$12	0xbeb61d…
06-01 03:37:53	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0xcf44fb…
06-01 03:11:59	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	41	100¢	$40	0xa57d01…
05-30 23:16:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0xff0221…
05-30 18:08:44	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	Yes	SELL	23	1¢	$0	0x65f28d…
05-30 15:13:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	Yes	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0x8cd150…
05-30 14:56:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0x221ed8…
05-29 23:22:42	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x8e4563…
05-29 23:15:25	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x51dc4f…
05-29 23:13:54	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	SELL	25	58¢	$14	0xd956c5…
05-29 23:07:13	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x3f6a0d…
05-29 23:05:23	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	74¢	$30	0xb2265b…
05-28 18:55:38	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	SELL	15	64¢	$9	0x240eee…
05-28 18:55:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	21	31¢	$6	0xb5476b…
05-28 18:54:40	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	SELL	31	45¢	$14	0x83264a…
05-28 18:54:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	39	76¢	$30	0x2523a8…
05-28 15:04:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x74a1bd…
05-28 15:02:39	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x5ffdf3…
05-28 05:32:21	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	22	68¢	$15	0x7098d3…
05-28 05:27:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	28	81¢	$23	0xfecd1f…
05-28 05:20:33	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	No	SELL	25	92¢	$23	0xc74e49…
05-26 18:34:27	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	47	45¢	$21	0xc6a84e…
05-25 01:52:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	34¢	$7	0x10a8b0…
05-25 01:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x6db575…
05-25 01:43:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xa30fa7…
05-25 01:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x072e40…
05-25 01:39:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4e3c51…
05-25 01:37:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	24¢	$0	0x9fb171…
05-25 01:36:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xc4817e…
05-25 01:36:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x157cd0…
05-25 01:23:46	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?	No	SELL	15	50¢	$8	0xd23168…
05-25 01:20:28	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?	No	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0x09ceab…
05-24 23:05:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0x9bc87f…
05-24 23:02:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x823da5…
05-24 22:46:49	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	15	62¢	$9	0xaab18a…
05-23 19:32:10	Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	Yes	SELL	31	17¢	$5	0x32dddd…
05-16 22:55:56	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	0¢	$0	0xff73a5…
05-16 22:32:59	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xd86a1e…
05-16 20:13:37	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x9a9843…
05-15 12:45:38	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xed04a0…
05-14 02:48:55	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x513eda…
05-14 02:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x9c5b03…
05-14 02:20:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x13a7b1…
05-14 02:19:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x46ea79…
05-14 02:17:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x08274f…
05-14 02:15:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x2a1a21…
05-14 02:14:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xe7dd18…
05-14 02:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xe63a34…
05-14 02:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x210c5c…
05-14 01:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0x3ca22d…
05-14 01:57:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x91c754…
05-14 01:55:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x6676c2…
05-14 01:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x3f5891…
05-14 01:50:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xfdf722…
05-14 01:36:07	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0xa42740…
05-11 13:44:29	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	57¢	$19	0x0fea57…
05-06 14:46:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x260327…