Agonizing-Ironclad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.53K

Unrealized P&L

+$22

Hit rate

44.1%

Resolved

176

Trades

774

lifetime

Volume

$11.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$50

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-13 18:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 73 days

Categories

Other

55% 15% -$2,082

Politics

44% 24% -$425

Sports

1% 17% -$13

Crypto

0% 0% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No		+100	$8	26¢	$26	+$18	07-27 09:00
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes		+150	$20	16¢	$23	+$3	07-25 19:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	11	$1.1K	850	1,350	-500	Yes	+$9	05-15 03:17
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	10	$755	1,900	1,900	+0	Yes	+$71	03-01 02:11
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	17	$325	1,678	1,678	+0	No	-$305	05-19 23:46
will russia capture all of kupiansk by march 31	16	$315	4,500	0	+4,500	No	-$315	02-13 18:14
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$290	500	500	+0	No	-$140	04-12 12:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	4	$288	250	250	+0	Yes	+$208	04-28 10:26
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	4	$276	200	200	+0	Yes	+$116	03-08 01:46
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	6	$260	200	200	+0	Yes	+$128	03-07 20:03
cbb utahst arz 2026 03 22 spread home 12pt5	2	$260	250	250	+0	Utah State Aggies	+$240	03-23 06:04
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	7	$235	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$765	02-15 00:56
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	13	$226	1,500	1,500	+0	No	-$24	04-21 20:44
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$219	150	150	+0	No	+$78	02-01 00:48
will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	6	$217	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$217	03-02 01:14
will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	3	$189	900	0	+900	No	-$189	03-10 16:51
will russia capture kostyantynivka by february 28	6	$182	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$182	02-12 12:05
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	6	$181	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$181	01-18 20:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$180	100	100	+0	No	+$18	01-30 21:48
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	2	$173	100	100	+0	No	+$27	02-20 15:27
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$166	100	100	+0	No	+$32	01-31 20:14
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$166	100	100	+0	Yes	+$34	03-30 19:30
enhanced aca premium tax credits extended by january 31	5	$165	1,850	0	+1,850	No	-$165	01-23 11:29
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by february 28	5	$160	140	140	+0	Yes	+$118	02-05 23:52
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$155	100	100	+0	Yes	+$45	04-05 04:47
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	2	$146	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	02-09 19:31
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	16	$141	700	700	+0	No	-$127	03-06 07:59
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	2	$140	500	0	+500	No	-$140	03-09 19:28
will russia capture all of prymorske by march 31 2026 597	7	$127	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$23	03-09 13:08
will russia capture all of vovchansk by march 31	5	$119	1,891	0	+1,891	No	-$119	03-16 04:48
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	5	$115	5,000	0	+5,000	Yes	-$115	01-27 20:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$112	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	01-24 07:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 18:00:37	Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x1facb3…
09-26 03:27:14	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x49b95c…
08-25 23:20:31	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	BUY	181	8¢	$14	0xaff048…
08-25 23:20:28	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	BUY	69	8¢	$6	0x2faad5…
07-31 22:47:32	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	Yes	SELL	230	0¢	$0	0x7b4a01…
07-30 12:15:32	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	Yes	BUY	230	9¢	$20	0x98e125…
07-29 14:30:06	will wti reach 85 in july 2026 from july 27	Yes	SELL	46	99¢	$46	0x22fbfc…
07-29 11:44:33	will wti reach 85 in july 2026 from july 27	Yes	BUY	26	22¢	$6	0x714120…
07-28 22:49:29	will wti reach 85 in july 2026 from july 27	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x900565…
07-27 09:00:55	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x50a7f1…
07-27 00:50:58	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x6d9ce5…
07-27 00:30:27	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xd7c350…
07-26 22:29:45	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	40	15¢	$6	0xed0732…
07-26 21:03:16	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x8731f2…
07-26 17:41:04	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$31	0x30c258…
07-25 23:12:07	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x03bed0…
07-25 23:01:03	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	35	21¢	$7	0x45b4c9…
07-25 22:57:18	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	45	21¢	$9	0x2bdd84…
07-25 19:12:33	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x8c0839…
07-24 09:49:24	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xa2080a…
07-21 14:35:58	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x310e2b…
07-16 05:01:38	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$1	0xc7b85d…
07-16 00:51:11	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x818b72…
07-16 00:50:34	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x0b7a7a…
07-16 00:50:31	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m?	Yes	BUY	79	1¢	$1	0xa60ff3…
07-16 00:50:31	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m?	Yes	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0x4643b4…
07-15 22:24:38	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?	Yes	BUY	91	0¢	$0	0x4044d6…
07-15 18:59:41	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?	Yes	BUY	140	0¢	$0	0xe38485…
07-15 18:59:41	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xbbcff6…
07-15 18:59:41	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?	Yes	BUY	125	0¢	$0	0xb2a414…
07-15 18:59:41	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x77aba0…
07-15 18:59:41	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x422dd4…
07-15 18:59:41	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x31dc9e…
07-15 18:59:41	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?	Yes	BUY	52	0¢	$0	0x148066…
07-15 18:59:38	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x93c343…
07-15 18:59:04	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0xfd8807…
07-15 18:59:02	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?	Yes	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0x4d137d…
07-15 14:50:43	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xcae9bb…
07-14 13:12:01	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x5f0327…
07-14 04:55:31	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x750afd…
07-11 05:55:26	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	120	4¢	$5	0x393e87…
07-10 11:54:46	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x5434ef…
07-09 06:34:35	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x916e7d…
07-09 06:34:13	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xf38d50…
07-09 00:32:31	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0xa55e79…
07-05 22:05:14	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x1004ad…
07-04 18:55:32	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	35	27¢	$9	0x5c6171…
07-04 18:08:50	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	35	14¢	$5	0x4cb61d…
07-04 02:57:20	Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	45	12¢	$5	0xedbd8d…
07-03 04:22:31	Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xa57c57…
07-03 01:05:07	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0x1e76d5…
07-03 00:14:19	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xb8ceea…
06-30 22:34:19	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	Sweden	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xacc724…
06-30 21:55:44	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	Sweden	BUY	15	38¢	$6	0x6b2923…
06-30 03:20:04	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	220	2¢	$5	0x9221a1…
06-30 02:52:17	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x0d6637…
06-30 01:36:22	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	70	7¢	$5	0xa292ae…
06-28 02:59:44	Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x437a92…
06-18 23:52:01	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x076d4d…
06-15 22:37:48	Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?	No	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x465c3d…
06-13 07:41:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x28e1f4…
05-26 10:06:25	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	280	2¢	$6	0xbd4470…
05-25 21:10:00	Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?	No	SELL	91	2¢	$2	0x711a97…
05-24 12:04:06	Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?	No	SELL	203	2¢	$4	0x6ec9bc…
05-20 01:59:19	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	127	9¢	$12	0x26ad4b…
05-19 23:46:33	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	SELL	533	1¢	$3	0xb1a53e…
05-19 23:46:32	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	SELL	1,145	1¢	$7	0xac240b…
05-19 23:37:52	Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?	No	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xe07293…
05-19 23:36:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	Yes	SELL	202	5¢	$10	0xbf8c38…
05-19 23:33:33	Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?	No	BUY	301	14¢	$42	0xf3f442…
05-19 23:28:21	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	9¢	$45	0x3995fd…
05-19 23:27:15	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	667	1¢	$9	0x7e1406…
05-19 23:19:26	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x934057…
05-19 22:31:06	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	55	8¢	$4	0xbc0f99…
05-19 22:30:19	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0xa3bf18…
05-19 22:29:30	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	31	8¢	$2	0xb5e221…
05-19 22:23:14	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	75	25¢	$19	0x544fe0…
05-19 22:23:10	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xbee65c…
05-19 22:23:10	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x4b789a…
05-19 22:23:08	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	106	25¢	$26	0xfc0ee5…
05-19 22:23:03	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xa69bf5…
05-19 22:22:58	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$13	0x16cd70…
05-19 08:30:28	Will Donald Trump announce Eric Shmitt as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	BUY	429	0¢	$0	0x9089cc…
05-17 22:27:01	Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	250	5¢	$12	0x36d243…
05-17 22:22:17	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	500	13¢	$65	0xfc2dfd…
05-17 05:59:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	545	2¢	$11	0xbf9b8b…
05-17 05:57:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xa9b5d3…
05-17 05:57:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	19	2¢	$0	0xfee1a7…
05-17 05:57:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	31	2¢	$1	0xf033ac…
05-17 05:57:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	32	2¢	$1	0xeea452…
05-17 05:57:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	31	2¢	$1	0xd7f537…
05-17 05:57:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0xd22bcc…
05-17 05:57:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xcc2049…
05-17 05:57:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	32	2¢	$1	0x8ca1f9…
05-17 05:57:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x7be39d…
05-17 05:57:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	27	2¢	$1	0x756993…
05-17 05:57:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x736f2f…
05-17 05:57:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x673dc8…
05-17 05:57:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x51fc56…
05-17 05:57:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	26	2¢	$1	0x0d87bc…