Agonizing-Ironclad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

634

lifetime

Volume

$10.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$17

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 14:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

54% 0% $-0

Politics

45% 0% —

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes		+40	$5	22¢	$9	+$4	07-09 00:32
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes		+50	$5	16¢	$8	+$3	07-10 11:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	9	$843	600	1,100	-500	open	—	04-18 16:57
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	10	$755	1,900	1,900	+0	open	—	03-01 02:11
will russia capture all of kupiansk by march 31	16	$315	4,500	0	+4,500	open	—	02-13 18:14
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$290	500	500	+0	open	—	04-12 12:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	4	$288	250	250	+0	open	—	04-28 10:26
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	4	$276	200	200	+0	open	—	03-08 01:46
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	6	$260	200	200	+0	open	—	03-07 20:03
cbb utahst arz 2026 03 22 spread home 12pt5	2	$260	250	250	+0	open	—	03-23 06:04
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	7	$235	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-15 00:56
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	13	$226	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	04-21 20:44
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$219	150	150	+0	open	—	02-01 00:48
will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	6	$217	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-02 01:14
will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	3	$189	900	0	+900	open	—	03-10 16:51
will russia capture kostyantynivka by february 28	6	$182	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-12 12:05
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	6	$181	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-18 20:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$180	100	100	+0	open	—	01-30 21:48
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	2	$173	100	100	+0	open	—	02-20 15:27
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$166	100	100	+0	open	—	01-31 20:14
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$166	100	100	+0	open	—	03-30 19:30
enhanced aca premium tax credits extended by january 31	5	$165	1,850	0	+1,850	open	—	01-23 11:29
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by february 28	5	$160	140	140	+0	open	—	02-05 23:52
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$155	100	100	+0	open	—	04-05 04:47
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	2	$146	100	100	+0	open	—	02-09 19:31
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	16	$141	700	700	+0	open	—	03-06 07:59
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	2	$140	500	0	+500	open	—	03-09 19:28
will russia capture all of prymorske by march 31 2026 597	7	$127	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-09 13:08
will russia capture all of vovchansk by march 31	5	$119	1,891	0	+1,891	open	—	03-16 04:48
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	5	$115	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	01-27 20:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$112	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	01-24 07:30
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	2	$111	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	03-06 21:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 14:35:58	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x310e2b…
07-15 14:50:43	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xcae9bb…
07-14 13:12:01	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x5f0327…
07-14 04:55:31	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x750afd…
07-11 05:55:26	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	120	4¢	$5	0x393e87…
07-10 11:54:46	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x5434ef…
07-09 06:34:35	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x916e7d…
07-09 06:34:13	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xf38d50…
07-09 00:32:31	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0xa55e79…
07-04 18:55:32	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	35	27¢	$9	0x5c6171…
07-04 18:08:50	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	35	14¢	$5	0x4cb61d…
06-30 22:34:19	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	Sweden	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xacc724…
06-30 21:55:44	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	Sweden	BUY	15	38¢	$6	0x6b2923…
05-26 10:06:25	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	280	2¢	$6	0xbd4470…
05-19 23:36:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	Yes	SELL	202	5¢	$10	0xbf8c38…
05-16 04:56:56	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	211	5¢	$10	0x20a9a4…
05-16 02:23:38	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	39	5¢	$2	0x614f2e…
05-15 01:23:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x224327…
05-12 21:49:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$11	0xa27110…
05-07 18:44:42	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	337	9¢	$31	0x5b21a4…
05-04 05:31:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	500	8¢	$40	0xa62eed…
05-03 12:26:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$9	0x44e9c2…
05-02 11:47:40	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x5d1fee…
05-02 10:20:54	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	237	10¢	$24	0xc3924a…
05-01 22:02:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	27	6¢	$2	0xbc507c…
05-01 21:52:36	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	71	6¢	$4	0xd82157…
05-01 19:19:12	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	268	6¢	$16	0xe394a8…
05-01 00:40:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x39b5c0…
04-29 23:15:10	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	SELL	62	1¢	$1	0x6f58f7…
04-29 22:53:22	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	SELL	220	1¢	$3	0xee80a3…
04-29 22:43:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	SELL	125	2¢	$2	0xbf9689…
04-29 21:39:44	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	SELL	245	1¢	$3	0x92f793…
04-29 09:27:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	SELL	359	2¢	$7	0x1ee03c…
04-28 17:01:48	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	165	3¢	$5	0x3e0bcf…
04-28 14:54:54	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	27	3¢	$1	0x622b04…
04-28 14:49:28	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	58	3¢	$2	0xa7a02f…
04-28 10:26:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	250	99¢	$248	0x3f590a…
04-27 10:43:50	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	BUY	38	1¢	$0	0xc621bc…
04-27 10:07:12	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xb15b85…
04-27 09:06:56	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x954c3f…
04-27 08:53:26	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	BUY	251	1¢	$3	0x09a7e9…
04-27 07:12:42	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	250	3¢	$8	0xbbb7e0…
04-26 22:21:56	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	BUY	226	2¢	$4	0xb40cbd…
04-25 07:13:38	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	Yes	BUY	424	1¢	$5	0x8efd0e…
04-25 06:43:34	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	Yes	BUY	76	1¢	$1	0x134392…
04-24 07:50:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0xab4cdf…
04-21 20:44:32	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	750	2¢	$11	0xc5bb4b…
04-21 16:28:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$3	0x540429…
04-21 16:25:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xdfe3e7…
04-21 16:25:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x54069e…
04-20 21:22:04	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	209	6¢	$13	0x3974e9…
04-20 21:21:18	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	47	6¢	$3	0xa853d6…
04-20 21:15:38	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xb0131b…
04-20 21:14:00	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	61	6¢	$4	0x881233…
04-20 21:12:08	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	21	6¢	$1	0x957a95…
04-20 21:11:12	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	104	6¢	$6	0x772335…
04-20 19:43:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	Yes	BUY	800	1¢	$6	0xbacbe5…
04-20 19:22:38	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	75	12¢	$9	0x4d07a4…
04-20 19:20:16	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	300	12¢	$36	0xf9851e…
04-20 18:37:28	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	303	6¢	$18	0x45c796…
04-20 16:52:52	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	375	12¢	$45	0x111e4b…
04-20 13:47:52	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0xd82d55…
04-20 00:02:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	115	2¢	$3	0xa097de…
04-19 23:39:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$6	0x6f77e7…
04-19 22:10:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	185	2¢	$4	0x2f40da…
04-19 21:41:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	BUY	19	3¢	$1	0x0c6c19…
04-19 21:41:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xd66a61…
04-19 21:41:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x75bcf6…
04-19 21:41:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x74f39e…
04-19 21:41:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0x1f9f81…
04-19 20:55:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$6	0xfe059f…
04-19 15:22:14	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	250	16¢	$40	0xf50586…
04-19 01:34:42	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	120	18¢	$21	0x7c201d…
04-18 16:57:26	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	375	60¢	$225	0x522973…
04-17 19:34:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x987545…
04-17 15:46:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0x243120…
04-17 15:45:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	250	14¢	$34	0xe402d9…
04-17 15:45:00	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	125	59¢	$74	0x8c1872…
04-17 12:57:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	130	16¢	$21	0x647857…
04-17 12:55:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	3	16¢	$1	0x46898d…
04-17 12:55:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	117	16¢	$19	0x14e6f4…
04-17 12:55:08	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	300	7¢	$21	0x2002f7…
04-17 11:24:34	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	SELL	6,130	0¢	$6	0xb5a27d…
04-17 11:21:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x3a78ca…
04-17 09:52:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xa0ca59…
04-17 09:43:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x1aa6bd…
04-17 05:01:06	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$11	0xa7051b…
04-17 04:12:50	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$8	0xf69372…
04-17 02:44:28	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	6,130	0¢	$6	0x408887…
04-16 05:47:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	Yes	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0x76ced3…
04-16 02:05:06	Will Russia enter Stinky by April 30?	Yes	BUY	46	2¢	$1	0x8198b7…
04-15 21:59:36	Will Russia enter Stinky by April 30?	Yes	BUY	76	2¢	$2	0x7c51fc…
04-15 17:46:36	Will Russia enter Stinky by April 30?	Yes	BUY	76	2¢	$2	0xfc4aa6…
04-15 14:20:10	Will Russia enter Stinky by April 30?	Yes	BUY	51	2¢	$1	0x23bce6…
04-15 00:19:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	250	9¢	$22	0xb23c69…
04-14 23:37:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	No	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0x85568e…
04-13 00:36:49	Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	177	2¢	$3	0x0bd8a4…
04-12 12:42:53	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	250	15¢	$38	0x181935…
04-12 12:41:07	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	500	15¢	$75	0xad3214…
04-12 10:34:41	Will Russia enter Stinky by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xf091bb…