Knobby-Boat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.83K

Unrealized P&L

-$7.03K

Hit rate

53.2%

Resolved

8,317

Trades

57,728

lifetime

Volume

$638.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$1.57K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-06 20:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 107 days

Categories

Crypto

71% 44% -$20,698

Politics

24% 20% +$33,823

Other

5% 11% -$17,638

Sports

0% 0% -$320

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	-53,176	-$1,456	2¢	$-824	+$632	06-06 08:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	+196,710	$8,258	0¢	$590	-$7,668	10-06 20:21
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+3,118	$154	5¢	$157	+$3	07-26 20:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	187	$73.7K	1,481,961	256,961	+1,225,000	Yes	+$44,666	04-09 19:16
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	23	$16.5K	20,400	20,400	+0	Yes	+$10,209	04-07 22:52
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 19:15 UTC	727	$13.3K	13,001	12,747	+255	Up	-$879	01-27 19:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-23 19:00 UTC	241	$11.5K	24,165	24,046	+119	Down	-$20	01-23 19:08
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	73	$9.5K	82,842	34,859	+47,983	No	+$1,694	03-29 07:03
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-25 23:15 UTC	204	$9.3K	113,642	0	+113,642	Up	-$9,275	01-25 23:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	6	$8.3K	196,710	0	+196,710	open	—	10-06 20:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	60	$8.0K	1,218,360	0	+1,218,360	No	-$7,960	09-26 13:40
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	4	$7.6K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	+$2,365	04-08 00:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	10	$7.1K	110,643	48,551	+62,092	No	-$1,386	04-10 09:45
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	114	$6.0K	183,420	0	+183,420	No	-$6,003	04-16 17:28
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	61	$5.9K	111,000	7,500	+103,500	No	-$3,381	04-22 14:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$4.6K	219,943	0	+219,943	No	-$4,640	05-10 14:02
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	12	$4.6K	10,697	7,500	+3,197	No	+$1,900	04-15 15:22
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 20:30 UTC	97	$4.4K	4,548	2,205	+2,343	Down	-$63	01-27 20:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	11	$4.1K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$662	04-16 15:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 19:30 UTC	204	$4.0K	3,797	3,165	+631	Up	+$401	01-27 19:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	3	$3.0K	159,202	0	+159,202	No	-$3,000	05-12 16:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 19:45 UTC	252	$2.7K	3,803	1,751	+2,052	Down	+$363	01-29 19:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$2.3K	98,771	0	+98,771	No	-$2,308	04-28 10:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$2.0K	110,748	0	+110,748	No	-$2,000	05-12 16:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$2.0K	51,969	0	+51,969	No	-$2,000	05-09 20:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 20:00 UTC	44	$2.0K	3,357	786	+2,571	Up	-$94	01-27 20:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 21:15 UTC	30	$2.0K	4,105	0	+4,105	Down	-$54	01-27 21:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 23:45 UTC	43	$2.0K	1,600	1,585	+15	Down	-$76	01-08 23:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 13:20 UTC	1	$1.9K	3,180	0	+3,180	Up	-$1,937	02-18 13:20
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	4	$1.9K	5,882	59,058	-53,176	open	—	06-06 08:58
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	16	$1.9K	60,702	117,248	-56,546	No	-$1,445	06-06 08:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	2	$1.7K	137,704	0	+137,704	No	-$1,678	06-06 08:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 18:40 UTC	8	$1.7K	1,118	1,081	+37	Up	+$413	02-24 18:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-06 20:21:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	BUY	79,222	3¢	$2,000	0x3a6701…
10-03 12:48:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	BUY	78,197	3¢	$2,498	0xd2086f…
09-26 13:47:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,601	10¢	$260	0xd3651f…
09-26 13:42:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 13:40 UTC	Up	BUY	66	38¢	$25	0x61b15a…
09-26 13:42:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 13:40 UTC	Up	SELL	319	40¢	$127	0xfd265e…
09-26 13:41:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 13:40 UTC	Up	BUY	319	31¢	$100	0x18f110…
09-26 13:40:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	95,716	1¢	$500	0x7f42f7…
09-26 13:39:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	BUY	6,165	8¢	$500	0x714f5e…
09-26 09:10:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	28,400	0¢	$142	0xc0d810…
09-26 09:09:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	181,507	1¢	$1,000	0xfceb3a…
09-26 09:08:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	BUY	23,131	9¢	$2,000	0xc96604…
09-26 03:37:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	340	1¢	$2	0x2f44fe…
09-26 02:31:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	504	1¢	$4	0xae1e2f…
09-26 02:27:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xf14cd0…
09-26 02:19:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	201	1¢	$1	0x677bfe…
09-26 02:05:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	110,000	1¢	$770	0xe50084…
09-26 02:02:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	34	1¢	$0	0x7f2ac5…
09-26 01:11:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	201	1¢	$1	0x95286d…
09-26 00:55:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x2bd04a…
09-26 00:47:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	20,000	1¢	$140	0x5848c0…
09-26 00:41:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	77,777	1¢	$544	0x0a5a94…
09-26 00:38:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	100,000	1¢	$700	0xd92e96…
09-26 00:37:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	50,000	1¢	$350	0x97477e…
09-25 23:40:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	46,167	1¢	$323	0x86425b…
09-25 22:47:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	15,000	1¢	$105	0x34b377…
09-25 22:35:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	37,500	1¢	$262	0x92e64f…
09-25 22:09:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	20,000	1¢	$140	0x3d8c51…
09-25 22:04:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x25335c…
09-25 21:47:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3,504	1¢	$25	0x7a0f24…
09-25 21:14:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x7bf9cd…
09-25 20:59:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x3527c7…
09-25 20:22:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	843	1¢	$6	0x633461…
09-25 20:18:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	521	1¢	$4	0x9206e1…
09-25 20:17:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	518	1¢	$4	0x5b0bee…
09-25 20:15:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	527	1¢	$4	0x7a3a28…
09-25 20:13:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2,540	1¢	$18	0x29f7d3…
09-25 19:59:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	527	1¢	$4	0x3e42a8…
09-25 19:59:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	527	1¢	$4	0x133316…
09-25 19:33:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	12,500	1¢	$88	0xee111c…
09-25 19:16:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0xc08f12…
09-25 18:30:18	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	BUY	17,563	6¢	$1,000	0x0dca4b…
09-25 18:10:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	BUY	7,396	14¢	$1,000	0xd5d8f5…
09-25 18:09:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2,158	6¢	$123	0x013a10…
09-25 18:09:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	69,144	1¢	$877	0x0036d7…
09-25 15:57:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	218,685	0¢	$1,077	0xcfe3d4…
09-25 15:56:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	72,750	0¢	$291	0x383d7b…
09-20 17:14:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2,452	1¢	$22	0xcd6ced…
09-20 17:13:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	20,000	1¢	$180	0xd70657…
09-20 17:12:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10,000	1¢	$90	0x4d3b74…
09-20 17:12:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xce34d2…
09-20 17:12:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10,000	1¢	$90	0x95d54a…
09-20 16:50:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf11251…
09-20 16:19:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x486252…
09-20 15:58:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	156	0¢	$1	0x55e29a…
09-20 15:36:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	750	1¢	$7	0x34a15e…
09-20 15:03:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0xd39513…
09-20 14:02:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x5de9f5…
09-20 13:52:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	361	1¢	$3	0xb1d630…
09-20 13:50:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	31	0¢	$0	0xd72975…
09-20 13:31:37	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	4,974	0¢	$25	0x572585…
09-20 12:47:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$9	0x29dc0f…
09-20 12:39:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x8cfe24…
09-20 12:39:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,600	1¢	$14	0x84f08d…
09-20 10:25:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x3710a7…
09-20 10:04:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	59	0¢	$0	0xc8fd39…
09-20 09:04:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	171	0¢	$1	0x777cc2…
09-20 08:55:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0x2cee04…
09-20 08:47:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	82	1¢	$1	0xe8dec0…
09-20 08:36:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0x01f6fa…
09-20 08:35:11	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	103	0¢	$1	0x7ee06f…
09-20 08:09:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	65	1¢	$1	0x637b11…
09-20 08:01:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	57	1¢	$1	0x59ed93…
09-20 07:14:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$2	0x940897…
09-20 07:14:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$2	0x9f4f2c…
09-20 06:55:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	750	0¢	$4	0x001929…
09-20 06:44:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	275	1¢	$2	0x7469e4…
09-20 06:35:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	240	0¢	$1	0xdc8f3b…
09-20 06:23:39	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	360	0¢	$2	0x60d8a4…
09-20 06:10:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	349	1¢	$3	0x5cf88d…
09-20 05:36:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	143	0¢	$1	0x5a730f…
09-20 05:20:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	174	0¢	$1	0x31517e…
09-20 05:20:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd43a13…
09-20 05:18:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0xe8fbcc…
09-20 05:15:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	179	0¢	$1	0x4f6a07…
09-20 04:53:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0x67ffe4…
09-20 04:40:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2,664	1¢	$24	0xde75ad…
09-20 04:39:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	BUY	42	0¢	$0	0xcb098d…
09-20 04:38:49	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24,873	4¢	$871	0x16b86b…
09-20 04:37:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	4¢	$2	0xa676d2…
09-20 04:36:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x4a3bb0…
09-20 04:36:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,074	3¢	$178	0xafeee3…
09-20 04:35:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,200	4¢	$112	0xb3a81a…
09-20 04:35:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xf3dc8b…
09-20 04:35:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	4¢	$2	0x3ce7a5…
09-20 04:35:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xe831a7…
09-20 04:35:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0x93daf1…
09-20 04:35:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,695	3¢	$166	0x865be2…
09-20 04:35:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0x68acfb…
09-20 04:35:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$35	0x4cabb3…
09-20 04:35:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x348864…