Creepy-Fat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

80.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$291

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$15

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-09

last 07-09 00:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

74% 50% $-4

Other

26% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No		-12	$-11	92¢	$-11	$-0	07-02 09:04
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No		+9	$5	50¢	$5	$-0	07-08 22:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$41	40	40	+0	Yes	+$6	05-08 18:02
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	1	$39	44	0	+44	open	—	03-09 21:09
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$26	15	15	+0	open	—	05-10 21:54
will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	2	$23	14	14	+0	open	—	04-12 17:33
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	05-31 16:58
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$20	28	0	+28	open	—	03-09 21:08
will zelenskyy talk to putin by august 31	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	07-09 00:03
will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	1	$12	13	0	+13	open	—	06-14 00:08
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	2	$11	0	12	-12	open	—	07-02 09:04
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$11	0	11	-11	open	—	06-14 00:04
untitled market 1 20260629155005352	2	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	07-08 22:40
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	1	$10	21	0	+21	open	—	03-09 21:08
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	02-09 22:19
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-12 10:17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$10	11	0	+11	Yes	$-10	04-06 23:06
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	06-14 00:07
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	07-08 22:31
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	2	$2	13	13	+0	open	—	07-08 13:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-09 00:03:19	will zelenskyy talk to putin by august 31	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xd31eb9…
07-08 22:40:41	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0xf97729…
07-08 22:40:38	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x3694d3…
07-08 22:31:56	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xac46fb…
07-08 13:29:23	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0x226279…
07-02 09:04:31	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x162631…
07-02 08:43:59	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x131b18…
06-14 00:08:39	will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0x5eb0ad…
06-14 00:07:48	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x03337d…
06-14 00:07:04	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x7bf9a7…
06-14 00:04:10	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x90105b…
05-31 16:58:56	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xd40e34…
05-10 21:54:12	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	91¢	$14	0x05b120…
05-08 21:55:18	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x2590ba…
05-08 21:39:32	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xb25df1…
05-08 18:02:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	60¢	$24	0x3775a1…
04-12 17:33:37	will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	14	97¢	$13	0x64bf4f…
04-12 10:17:09	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe4db40…
04-06 23:06:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x713b1f…
03-16 19:11:11	will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xfd45f3…
03-09 21:09:07	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	44	90¢	$39	0x835b6c…
03-09 21:08:49	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0xaec152…
03-09 21:08:25	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xa562d7…
02-09 22:20:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	44¢	$17	0xe70f33…
02-09 22:19:47	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x91daa1…