Greedy-Underestimate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$428

Unrealized P&L

+$25

Hit rate

63.5%

Resolved

Trades

127

lifetime

Volume

$17.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$136

Open exposure

$525

1 position

First seen

2026-03-23

last 07-06 06:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

37% 60% +$72

Tech

26% — —

Politics

22% 0% $-500

Other

15% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes		+2,500	$500	21¢	$525	+$25	07-06 06:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	6	$1.8K	1,859	0	+1,859	open	—	05-18 11:42
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	5	$1.4K	1,035	1,035	+0	open	—	04-05 06:10
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 3	2	$1.1K	601	601	+0	open	—	06-30 23:57
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	2	$1.0K	513	513	+0	open	—	03-30 05:03
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	3	$887	1,807	474	+1,333	open	—	07-01 00:20
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	4	$789	1,177	1,177	+0	open	—	04-07 13:14
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	2	$749	462	462	+0	open	—	06-30 23:56
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	9	$733	1,078	0	+1,078	open	—	04-09 01:35
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	3	$703	1,198	0	+1,198	open	—	06-15 23:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	6	$610	1,108	212	+896	open	—	05-18 11:54
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	4	$545	2,454	2,454	+0	open	—	04-07 13:13
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	1	$500	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	07-06 06:43
russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	1	$500	917	0	+917	open	—	07-06 06:41
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$433	648	648	+0	open	—	03-30 01:12
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	2	$403	278	278	+0	open	—	04-07 12:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	4	$400	417	0	+417	open	—	05-18 10:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	2	$386	361	361	+0	open	—	05-18 08:24
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$380	807	807	+0	open	—	04-07 13:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	3	$300	411	0	+411	open	—	05-18 06:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	3	$300	374	0	+374	open	—	05-18 07:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	5	$265	357	83	+274	open	—	05-18 07:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$246	0	747	-747	Yes	$-500	03-23 11:13
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	1	$200	1,667	0	+1,667	open	—	07-06 06:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	2	$200	266	0	+266	open	—	05-18 07:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	2	$200	217	0	+217	Down	+$17	05-13 05:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	2	$200	233	0	+233	open	—	05-18 09:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	2	$200	226	0	+226	open	—	05-18 10:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	4	$158	374	64	+310	open	—	05-18 10:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	2	$154	132	132	+0	open	—	05-18 08:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	3	$150	166	0	+166	Down	+$16	05-13 05:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-06 06:45:13	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,667	12¢	$200	0xa5c608…
07-06 06:43:46	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,500	20¢	$500	0xa3953d…
07-06 06:41:19	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	917	55¢	$500	0xda149d…
07-01 00:20:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	No	SELL	474	98¢	$467	0xcb1e67…
07-01 00:19:26	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	1,333	1¢	$20	0xa2de09…
06-30 23:57:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 3	Yes	SELL	601	97¢	$583	0x0d86c2…
06-30 23:56:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	462	97¢	$449	0x9ccb61…
06-30 23:28:53	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	No	BUY	474	84¢	$400	0x72a970…
06-30 23:10:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	462	65¢	$300	0x0e35a4…
06-30 23:10:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 3	Yes	BUY	601	83¢	$500	0x58d62d…
06-15 23:18:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	847	59¢	$500	0xfd71c2…
06-15 23:17:54	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	341	58¢	$198	0x86b0fc…
06-15 23:17:54	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x47673a…
05-22 13:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xb581a0…
05-20 03:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xe1c21b…
05-18 11:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	390	26¢	$100	0xd0012d…
05-18 11:52:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xfbeea2…
05-18 11:52:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	181	55¢	$100	0xb98bf6…
05-18 11:52:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x17cdcf…
05-18 11:51:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	SELL	212	52¢	$110	0x58c9d4…
05-18 11:51:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	212	47¢	$100	0x5555ac…
05-18 11:45:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	261	33¢	$86	0x980094…
05-18 11:42:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	523	96¢	$500	0x5fc8ef…
05-18 11:42:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	510	98¢	$500	0x10de96…
05-18 11:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	516	97¢	$500	0x3d249e…
05-18 11:41:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x259ab8…
05-18 11:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x1786bd…
05-18 11:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x263bc7…
05-18 10:41:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x35af09…
05-18 10:27:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x8db004…
05-18 10:27:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	118	84¢	$100	0xc67b0a…
05-18 10:19:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	205	8¢	$16	0x4a9173…
05-18 10:19:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x11618c…
05-18 10:17:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	64	28¢	$18	0xc6811f…
05-18 10:16:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	64	39¢	$25	0xaf9804…
05-18 10:14:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x678f05…
05-18 10:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0xdf0a18…
05-18 10:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x852c6b…
05-18 10:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xdf2987…
05-18 09:53:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	113	89¢	$100	0xd77f60…
05-18 09:52:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x5eb49d…
05-18 09:46:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xb84657…
05-18 08:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	132	41¢	$54	0xdc56bf…
05-18 08:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x2feca0…
05-18 08:24:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	SELL	361	79¢	$286	0x6b15e1…
05-18 08:22:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	361	28¢	$100	0x10cd8c…
05-18 07:23:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	63	25¢	$16	0x4dbb31…
05-18 07:18:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x209c8e…
05-18 07:16:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xdade45…
05-18 07:16:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xd12edc…
05-18 07:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x89394c…
05-18 07:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0xbeb261…
05-18 07:03:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	83	18¢	$15	0xdd216c…
05-18 07:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xe613d3…
05-18 07:01:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xe1c19d…
05-18 07:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0xf27c12…
05-18 07:00:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0x25ea49…
05-18 06:47:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x4c9c88…
05-18 06:46:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xe2b2fd…
05-18 06:46:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x9a79ec…
05-14 12:52:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	132	10¢	$13	0x848978…
05-14 12:52:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0xc5b5bc…
05-14 12:50:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0x480354…
05-13 15:04:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	30	54¢	$17	0xfca210…
05-13 06:38:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	SELL	154	8¢	$12	0x01b123…
05-13 06:37:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	154	16¢	$25	0xf5433f…
05-13 06:33:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	SELL	23	7¢	$2	0x5fdc7f…
05-13 06:31:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0xf913a9…
05-13 05:42:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	SELL	79	30¢	$24	0xd9a360…
05-13 05:41:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x513cac…
05-13 05:40:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0xa2c031…
05-13 05:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x3d3db2…
05-13 05:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	SELL	41	52¢	$21	0xc0f213…
05-13 05:35:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x99c5ac…
05-13 05:32:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x390599…
05-13 05:32:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xc068d7…
05-13 05:31:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x46f6b7…
05-13 05:29:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0xb29659…
05-13 05:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xb34953…
05-13 05:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0xce53d0…
05-13 05:20:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	39	63¢	$25	0x4c65c2…
05-13 05:20:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x2ccd3f…
05-13 05:13:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0xbb71d7…
05-13 05:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	66	38¢	$25	0x711657…
05-13 05:11:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0x152af7…
05-13 05:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x558617…
05-13 05:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x6be414…
05-13 05:03:17	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	108	80¢	$86	0xec47e5…
04-09 01:35:45	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	142	69¢	$98	0x857698…
04-09 01:34:57	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	288	69¢	$199	0xf6cf38…
04-09 01:28:05	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	348	69¢	$240	0x4101d6…
04-07 13:14:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	671	32¢	$212	0xce1ac2…
04-07 13:14:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	807	22¢	$180	0x5787aa…
04-07 13:13:59	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	Yes	SELL	454	11¢	$50	0x591f85…
04-07 12:46:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	807	25¢	$200	0xcc7640…
04-07 12:46:35	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	Yes	SELL	2,000	10¢	$201	0xf60afe…
04-07 12:45:17	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	Yes	BUY	2,317	12¢	$278	0x49c66a…
04-07 12:39:23	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	671	30¢	$200	0xc8d34e…
04-07 12:39:05	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	SELL	278	73¢	$203	0xc5ae64…
04-07 12:38:37	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	Yes	BUY	138	12¢	$17	0xf84b3a…