Probable-Dahlia — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$600

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

69.8%

Resolved

764

Trades

1,460

lifetime

Volume

$9.47K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-05 15:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Crypto

92% 67% -$585

Other

8% 44% -$15

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No		+5	$5	94¢	$5	+$0	11-05 15:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 92k on january 12	9	$1.4K	792	792	+0	Yes	+$73	01-12 17:03
will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	2	$1.1K	3,386	3,386	+0	No	+$186	01-13 22:19
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	7	$1.1K	9,257	714	+8,542	No	-$343	01-28 17:50
bitcoin above 90k on january 12	3	$422	222	222	+0	Yes	+$22	01-12 16:49
will bitcoin dip to 85k in january 2026	2	$401	1,433	1,433	+0	Yes	+$1	01-18 17:15
bitcoin up or down on january 12	2	$333	184	184	+0	Up	+$35	01-12 16:49
elon musk of tweets february 23 february 25 65 89	3	$259	170	170	+0	Yes	+$34	02-25 11:39
bitcoin above 78k on february 6	3	$210	11,013	0	+11,013	No	-$210	02-05 17:38
bitcoin above 92k on january 9	2	$202	341	292	+49	No	-$156	01-09 09:02
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 08:20 UTC	3	$144	134	132	+2	Up	+$26	02-28 08:22
elon musk of tweets february 23 february 25 90 114	2	$143	74	74	+0	No	+$5	02-25 17:06
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 08:10 UTC	7	$133	103	102	+1	Down	+$3	02-28 08:13
us forces in venezuela again by january 31 2026	2	$132	270	270	+0	No	-$68	01-07 08:05
solana above 140 on january 7	2	$104	55	55	+0	No	+$4	01-07 15:41
ethereum above 1800 on february 28	1	$100	110	0	+110	Yes	+$10	02-28 10:32
bitcoin above 90k on january 9	1	$100	143	0	+143	Yes	+$43	01-07 20:03
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 11:10 UTC	7	$87	66	35	+31	Up	+$9	02-28 11:14
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-27 13:25 UTC	2	$80	75	75	+0	Up	+$68	02-27 13:31
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 08:15 UTC	5	$55	63	0	+63	Down	-$55	02-28 08:17
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 11:05 UTC	5	$55	78	33	+45	Down	-$15	02-28 11:09
will shadowrocket be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on february 27	2	$54	36	36	+0	Yes	-$6	02-27 11:47
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 14:30 UTC	9	$54	65	19	+46	Down	+$12	02-28 14:34
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	1	$50	25,000	0	+25,000	No	-$50	01-27 23:26
bitcoin above 76k on february 6	6	$46	5,991	5,991	+0	No	-$34	02-06 15:35
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 12:40 UTC	3	$35	62	0	+62	Up	+$3	02-28 12:44
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 13:20 UTC	3	$34	46	45	+1	Down	-$6	02-28 13:24
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 08:10 UTC	8	$33	37	0	+37	Up	$0	03-02 08:14
will hotschedules be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on february 27	1	$30	88	0	+88	No	-$30	02-27 11:47
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 13:25 UTC	5	$30	48	0	+48	Up	+$8	02-28 13:30
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 09:50 UTC	2	$30	32	0	+32	Up	+$2	02-28 09:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 15:52:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x75c4f0…
11-04 19:27:15	BNB Up or Down - November 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb294de…
11-04 19:15:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x5c9486…
06-02 13:03:27	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0x8c9f17…
06-02 07:18:10	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x4befbb…
04-13 21:41:17	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-13 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x434811…
04-13 21:41:13	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-13 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x50734b…
03-28 08:38:45	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 08:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x6f874b…
03-28 08:13:53	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 08:10 UTC	Down	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x0fdd85…
03-28 05:43:31	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 05:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x0ff42c…
03-28 04:58:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 04:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xb6f957…
03-28 03:49:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xd4b29f…
03-27 13:15:25	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 260 279	Yes	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xd49f00…
03-27 13:15:19	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 260 279	Yes	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x846ea1…
03-19 12:54:11	Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	18	9¢	$2	0x1cf564…
03-19 11:52:37	Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0xa86b13…
03-19 11:52:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	59	5¢	$3	0xf5fc88…
03-16 05:45:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	59	3¢	$2	0x6c9bec…
03-16 05:45:21	Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x382d4c…
03-16 05:45:17	Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x944f24…
03-16 05:43:13	will usa make the 2026 world baseball classic final	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x0068fe…
03-16 05:42:57	will venezuela make the 2026 world baseball classic final	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x45bfc1…
03-16 05:42:53	will italy make the 2026 world baseball classic final	No	BUY	8	67¢	$5	0x7dbc96…
03-11 17:43:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 17:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x47251d…
03-11 17:18:49	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xeb48b6…
03-11 17:13:55	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 17:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xa09076…
03-11 17:08:29	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 17:05 UTC	Down	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0xe417c9…
03-11 17:08:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 17:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x64a52e…
03-11 16:48:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xfc47ac…
03-11 16:48:31	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x0ae3c1…
03-11 16:48:25	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x326618…
03-11 16:43:51	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x4c8ed9…
03-11 16:43:43	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x7cf925…
03-11 16:39:21	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 16:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x9e1e22…
03-11 12:33:33	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x810eef…
03-11 12:33:27	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0xeb8db7…
03-11 12:18:53	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xe6bb2f…
03-11 12:03:33	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xf14a7e…
03-11 11:49:15	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 11:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x9d5ab5…
03-11 11:13:41	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 11:10 UTC	Down	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x9ba83d…
03-11 10:48:27	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xfc924f…
03-11 10:39:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 10:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0xb474d5…
03-11 10:33:25	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x0e9d55…
03-11 10:24:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 10:20 UTC	Down	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0xfe71f3…
03-11 10:14:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 10:10 UTC	Down	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xb62a0e…
03-11 10:08:27	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 10:05 UTC	Down	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xcd3276…
03-06 13:53:27	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 13:50 UTC	Down	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xdc6de8…
03-06 13:53:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 13:50 UTC	Down	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x784439…
03-06 13:48:49	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0xca533c…
03-06 13:43:55	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x39cadc…
03-06 13:43:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x677c0b…
03-06 13:43:25	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x31b1f4…
03-06 13:43:25	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x122cbd…
03-06 13:39:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 13:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x07a289…
03-06 13:39:03	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 13:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xefc961…
03-06 13:39:03	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 13:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xe6b029…
03-05 16:53:27	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xa86b46…
03-05 16:53:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 16:50 UTC	Down	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x3b38f9…
03-05 16:48:41	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x000a56…
03-05 16:48:25	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0x4b0c24…
03-05 16:44:09	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xdfbbf2…
03-05 16:43:31	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xe109f2…
03-04 06:19:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	22	85¢	$19	0x6e54a1…
03-04 06:14:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 06:10 UTC	Down	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x88f38e…
03-04 06:13:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 06:10 UTC	Down	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0xc81f7f…
03-04 06:08:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 06:05 UTC	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xc6054a…
03-04 06:03:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xe6a893…
03-04 05:59:07	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:55 UTC	Down	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0xab91eb…
03-04 05:53:49	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:50 UTC	Up	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x48fafe…
03-04 05:48:47	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xd7bc57…
03-04 05:48:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x4f9c33…
03-04 05:48:25	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x6b39b0…
03-04 05:33:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x35cbc2…
03-04 05:28:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:25 UTC	Down	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xcabdb7…
03-04 05:13:41	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:10 UTC	Down	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x2efc90…
03-04 05:13:27	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:10 UTC	Down	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x2c073e…
03-04 05:10:07	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:05 UTC	Down	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x57ac5e…
03-04 05:10:05	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:05 UTC	Down	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x4a8ac5…
03-04 05:10:03	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:05 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1539b9…
03-04 05:08:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xd089f0…
03-04 05:05:05	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:00 UTC	Up	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x8c2cac…
03-04 05:03:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0xaf63dc…
03-04 05:00:05	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:55 UTC	Up	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x312ec2…
03-04 05:00:05	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:55 UTC	Up	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x002ecf…
03-04 04:58:27	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xc62bda…
03-04 04:54:45	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xa53612…
03-04 04:53:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:50 UTC	Up	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x878c87…
03-04 04:53:43	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:50 UTC	Up	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xb2e6d3…
03-04 04:48:29	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xbb2542…
03-04 04:38:27	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xe69380…
03-04 04:38:27	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xdf9404…
03-04 04:38:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:35 UTC	Down	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0xe9eb8e…
03-04 04:34:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xc4ffbd…
03-04 04:34:01	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x1cb8fe…
03-04 04:33:27	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x8839d3…
03-04 04:28:57	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x401fb3…
03-04 04:08:45	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x1f063d…
03-04 04:08:25	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:05 UTC	Down	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x30bb90…
03-04 04:04:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x23197c…
03-04 04:00:05	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 03:55 UTC	Down	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x735782…