Aching-Lane — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$45

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

83.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$25

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-07 00:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

68% 100% +$53

Other

27% 0% $-8

Crypto

4% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	+19	$10	64¢	$12	+$2	06-07 00:18
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+56	$6	12¢	$7	+$1	06-07 00:27
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+13	$5	50¢	$6	+$1	06-07 00:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will marco rubio visit israel by march 2	2	$190	100	100	+0	open	—	03-02 15:25
maduro out by march 31 2026 187 483	2	$112	45	103	-57	open	—	01-03 10:40
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$71	57	57	+0	open	—	03-05 20:45
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$68	46	46	+0	open	—	03-03 20:54
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	2	$49	205	205	+0	open	—	03-04 20:05
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	4	$47	113	113	+0	open	—	03-27 09:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$41	94	0	+94	Yes	+$53	01-04 20:13
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	2	$38	76	76	+0	open	—	01-28 20:34
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$25	91	91	+0	open	—	03-12 18:32
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$24	14	14	+0	open	—	03-23 12:32
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	2	$24	47	0	+47	open	—	03-05 09:58
will trump establish a gaza board of peace by march 31 681	2	$24	14	14	+0	open	—	01-12 13:13
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$23	13	13	+0	open	—	03-02 15:25
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$23	91	91	+0	open	—	03-19 14:53
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$23	84	0	+84	open	—	01-14 18:51
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$22	140	0	+140	open	—	02-27 11:22
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	2	$21	57	57	+0	open	—	03-12 18:32
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	2	$20	29	29	+0	open	—	03-31 19:37
will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	1	$20	154	0	+154	open	—	01-03 10:44
us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31	2	$15	350	0	+350	open	—	01-04 12:43
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	1	$15	63	0	+63	open	—	03-26 13:24
will jannik sinner win the 2026 australian open	1	$15	30	0	+30	open	—	01-01 16:52
will anyone be charged over daycare fraud in minnesota by june 30	1	$15	22	0	+22	open	—	01-01 16:30
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	2	$10	150	150	+0	open	—	03-03 20:43
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	2	$10	83	83	+0	open	—	03-03 20:43
will the green bay packers win super bowl 2026	1	$10	333	0	+333	open	—	01-01 16:31
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	1	$10	30	0	+30	open	—	05-11 18:39
bra sao cha 2026 03 12 sao	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	03-02 16:31
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	1	$10	67	0	+67	open	—	02-27 11:48
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	1	$10	143	0	+143	open	—	02-27 11:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 00:27:57	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	10¢	$6	0x57e47a…
06-07 00:19:45	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x542319…
06-07 00:18:24	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xe03049…
05-14 20:29:53	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xcef127…
05-14 20:29:39	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	23¢	$2	0xae1978…
05-11 18:59:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	58	10¢	$6	0x21037d…
05-11 18:39:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xab0c30…
05-11 18:31:25	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2eabf2…
05-11 18:25:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x08d556…
05-11 18:25:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x1f30fe…
05-04 15:33:08	Will Sydney Sweeney and Scooter Braun attend the Met Gala?	Yes	BUY	13	48¢	$6	0xf9cee3…
05-04 14:55:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf579c7…
04-17 19:35:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x12d942…
04-17 16:25:16	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0xc5a76e…
04-10 08:26:49	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0x1d85c4…
04-09 19:56:37	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xe52214…
04-05 14:52:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0x8b1fdf…
04-01 06:57:57	bra int sao 2026 04 01 sao	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x53ce9f…
03-31 19:37:51	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	SELL	29	0¢	$0	0xa226bc…
03-28 17:52:27	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	Yes	SELL	92	1¢	$1	0xfa00f9…
03-27 09:25:53	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	Yes	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0xcbe844…
03-27 09:25:33	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xae136d…
03-26 13:24:53	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0xadd925…
03-26 13:24:07	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	63	24¢	$15	0xce9bc4…
03-23 18:08:59	atp cerundo medvede 2026 03 23	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x798ce7…
03-23 12:32:21	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xc306d3…
03-23 11:04:41	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	Yes	BUY	92	5¢	$5	0xa73788…
03-23 09:39:41	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	Yes	SELL	109	6¢	$7	0xc37432…
03-19 14:59:37	bra sao pal 2026 03 21 sao	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x15062a…
03-19 14:53:47	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	91	3¢	$3	0x2c6397…
03-16 12:39:03	btc updown 5m 1773664500	Up	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0xf121cc…
03-16 12:36:05	btc updown 5m 1773664500	Up	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x1c8942…
03-16 12:35:29	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x04dccf…
03-13 10:53:47	bra bra sao 2026 03 15 sao	Yes	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0xbd3593…
03-13 10:51:15	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xe58d8f…
03-13 10:46:01	btc updown 5m 1773398400	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x399bb1…
03-12 18:32:53	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	Yes	SELL	57	1¢	$1	0x0c0eba…
03-12 18:32:43	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	SELL	91	2¢	$2	0xe8c94c…
03-06 13:58:15	btc updown 5m 1772805300	Up	BUY	443	1¢	$4	0xb3800b…
03-06 13:56:13	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	Yes	BUY	88	23¢	$20	0xf011ba…
03-05 20:45:57	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	57	43¢	$24	0x75a7dd…
03-05 09:58:33	will another country strike iran by march 7 528	Yes	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0x650a55…
03-04 20:05:21	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	Yes	SELL	205	2¢	$4	0xf5949b…
03-03 21:07:07	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	57	83¢	$47	0x9758a8…
03-03 20:54:43	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	46	100¢	$46	0xa52822…
03-03 20:43:53	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	SELL	83	0¢	$0	0x75b946…
03-03 20:43:51	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	150	0¢	$0	0x2d7e4e…
03-03 17:50:37	will another country strike iran by march 7 528	Yes	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x50f6dc…
03-02 16:47:05	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xb9f018…
03-02 16:44:27	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x5748c7…
03-02 16:44:15	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	150	7¢	$10	0x6ad7f6…
03-02 16:42:19	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0xc8283a…
03-02 16:41:15	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	BUY	91	25¢	$23	0xebb618…
03-02 16:31:01	bra sao cha 2026 03 12 sao	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x95da3a…
03-02 15:25:31	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xe16c79…
03-02 15:25:17	will marco rubio visit israel by march 2	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x19dd84…
02-28 20:52:47	will marco rubio visit israel by march 2	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xeab090…
02-28 20:48:13	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	Yes	BUY	205	22¢	$45	0x118213…
02-28 20:47:53	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0x526bd2…
02-28 20:47:47	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	Yes	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x91bbac…
02-28 13:59:25	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x496f61…
02-28 13:59:13	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	46	48¢	$22	0x12c06b…
02-27 11:48:25	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x29d40d…
02-27 11:22:03	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x9fa090…
02-27 11:20:55	netanyahu arrested by march 31	Yes	SELL	684	1¢	$4	0x99d60f…
02-27 11:20:47	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	78	16¢	$12	0x7ee17a…
02-27 11:20:35	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x83270b…
01-29 10:18:50	will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x6aa9a2…
01-28 20:34:24	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	Yes	SELL	76	2¢	$2	0x340fd8…
01-14 18:51:28	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	Yes	BUY	84	27¢	$23	0xc9646b…
01-12 13:13:44	will trump establish a gaza board of peace by march 31 681	Yes	SELL	14	94¢	$14	0x7f3632…
01-04 20:13:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x8230cb…
01-04 12:43:17	us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31	Yes	BUY	290	4¢	$13	0x2a7d5e…
01-04 12:42:39	us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$3	0x4d9bf9…
01-03 18:17:37	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	Yes	BUY	76	48¢	$36	0x651d01…
01-03 10:44:15	will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	Yes	BUY	154	13¢	$20	0x5ee28b…
01-03 10:43:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	43¢	$21	0x8a2036…
01-03 10:40:27	maduro out by march 31 2026 187 483	Yes	SELL	103	100¢	$102	0x27beb8…
01-01 16:52:03	will jannik sinner win the 2026 australian open	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x7bdd08…
01-01 16:31:59	will the green bay packers win super bowl 2026	Yes	BUY	333	3¢	$10	0xd58445…
01-01 16:30:09	will anyone be charged over daycare fraud in minnesota by june 30	Yes	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0xd6b985…
01-01 12:06:37	will trump establish a gaza board of peace by march 31 681	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x59ff64…
01-01 11:51:23	maduro out by march 31 2026 187 483	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xad7392…