Distorted-Backpack — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$161

Unrealized P&L

-$11

Hit rate

60.5%

Resolved

785

Trades

3,305

lifetime

Volume

$21.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$11

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 10-28 03:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 130 days

Categories

Other

56% 45% -$172

Politics

37% 57% +$639

Crypto

5% 55% -$225

Sports

2% 29% -$66

Tech

0% 33% -$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No		+71	$21	14¢	$10	-$11	07-24 12:30
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		+7	$1	18¢	$1	+$0	07-08 17:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	90	$1.0K	7,005	1,112	+5,893	No	+$481	05-26 20:29
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	7	$612	562	562	+0	Yes	+$452	05-05 18:22
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29?	38	$608	669	669	+0	Yes	-$64	06-29 06:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$594	455	455	+0	No	+$43	05-07 15:29
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6?	40	$528	861	861	+0	No	+$297	06-06 08:21
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	67	$513	2,865	701	+2,165	No	-$211	05-12 13:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	14	$500	820	220	+600	Yes	-$139	06-15 20:19
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	24	$493	1,010	230	+780	Yes	-$82	06-15 20:18
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	28	$457	489	489	+0	No	+$21	05-19 13:33
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$393	247	247	+0	No	-$7	04-24 20:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	3	$371	250	250	+0	No	+$69	05-31 12:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	3	$358	200	200	+0	No	+$24	05-11 05:13
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	15	$289	558	140	+418	No	-$152	05-19 20:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	18	$283	317	317	+0	No	+$55	05-28 06:37
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	5	$281	181	181	+0	No	+$13	04-25 11:41
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	5	$247	244	136	+108	Yes	-$82	04-26 20:25
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?	14	$231	137	137	+0	Yes	+$15	06-19 06:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	4	$230	379	0	+379	Down	-$230	05-25 19:08
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8?	66	$228	1,934	838	+1,096	No	-$99	06-08 03:18
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22?	18	$221	252	232	+20	No	-$11	06-22 03:46
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	10	$216	150	150	+0	Yes	+$24	06-17 16:38
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	6	$201	135	135	+0	Yes	+$1	04-25 18:35
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$201	156	156	+0	No	+$1	04-24 20:58
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	5	$200	122	122	+0	No	+$29	04-25 16:16
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9?	5	$192	110	110	+0	No	+$9	06-09 03:49
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7?	12	$188	106	106	+0	No	+$19	06-07 03:21
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	13	$179	134	134	+0	Yes	+$81	05-27 13:04
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21?	21	$173	149	149	+0	Yes	+$66	06-21 04:45
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$170	516	474	+42	No	+$21	07-18 07:22
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8?	8	$170	94	94	+0	No	+$5	06-07 18:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 03:52:35	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 28?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x3d3aea…
10-28 03:52:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 28?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa736b2…
10-27 15:25:41	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x3413af…
10-27 15:25:05	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on October 27?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x115ce2…
10-27 11:00:11	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x73c2d1…
10-27 10:59:27	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 27?	No	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0x5a6cc4…
10-27 05:06:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x70d4d2…
10-27 05:06:26	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 27?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xf20753…
10-27 05:05:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x8b44c9…
10-27 04:36:02	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 27?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x62e665…
10-27 04:34:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 27?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x595f90…
10-27 04:34:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc53812…
10-27 00:58:03	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 27?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xcb4ab5…
10-27 00:57:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xf95adf…
10-27 00:56:06	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on October 26?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x391ad8…
10-27 00:55:50	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 26?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8aef15…
10-27 00:55:36	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 26?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x6a498b…
10-26 18:18:47	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xd72c09…
10-26 12:52:47	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xf6362f…
10-26 12:06:03	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x04ad3b…
10-26 11:32:21	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 26?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x00d236…
10-26 11:30:42	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x836536…
10-26 11:29:36	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 26?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x6adf71…
10-26 11:25:21	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x88bf5c…
10-26 11:24:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 26?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc9f7ea…
10-26 11:24:42	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 26?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x665a8d…
10-26 08:49:00	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x986ad3…
10-26 05:04:45	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xe3df18…
10-26 05:04:33	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 26?	No	SELL	2	25¢	$0	0x8fdf1c…
10-26 05:03:23	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xb79a87…
10-26 04:25:47	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 26?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x7c384b…
10-26 03:45:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x617508…
10-26 02:18:39	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 26?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x5a0a7c…
10-26 02:14:56	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on October 25?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x81f2f3…
10-26 02:14:42	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on October 25?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x8c4db9…
10-26 02:11:35	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x42f4b9…
10-26 02:10:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x0b28d9…
10-25 23:28:21	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or higher on October 25?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x6ba95f…
10-25 23:18:57	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or higher on October 25?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xea1eb4…
10-25 23:18:03	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or higher on October 25?	Yes	BUY	39	0¢	$0	0x54c159…
10-25 16:36:33	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on October 25?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x8522da…
10-25 15:49:30	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x68d4c3…
10-25 12:38:54	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 25?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x156ded…
10-25 09:41:32	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on October 25?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x1130d3…
10-25 07:24:41	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on October 25?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xed5d56…
10-25 07:16:05	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 25?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x36a3cb…
10-25 07:15:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 25?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xccd8b3…
10-25 05:38:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 25?	No	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x1a6805…
10-25 05:37:51	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on October 24?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x43ad0f…
10-24 12:47:24	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 25?	No	BUY	3	88¢	$2	0x84a827…
10-24 12:45:57	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on October 24?	No	BUY	3	90¢	$2	0x33f98c…
10-24 12:45:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 24?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4218cd…
10-24 12:45:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 24?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x78dfea…
10-24 05:32:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 24?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xc3179d…
10-24 05:30:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 24?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x905435…
10-24 05:29:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 24?	No	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0xb1e7f8…
10-24 05:22:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 24?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xe02039…
10-23 12:51:59	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 23?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xc91a98…
10-23 12:51:53	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 23?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x6c5e5a…
10-23 12:51:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 23?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x4ba4c5…
10-23 06:41:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 24?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x433a58…
10-23 04:54:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 23?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x5e5f1e…
10-23 02:15:38	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 23?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xd79c59…
10-23 02:15:08	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 22?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x63152e…
10-23 02:14:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 24?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x9f25c9…
10-23 01:57:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 23?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x1649dc…
10-23 01:56:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 23?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xfe8e68…
10-23 01:56:36	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 22?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf8dece…
10-23 01:56:26	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on October 22?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2a1e0f…
10-23 01:56:12	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on October 22?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1645c7…
10-23 01:55:48	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on October 22?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd92639…
10-22 13:30:03	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on October 22?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xfc3879…
10-22 13:28:02	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 22?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xb3e442…
10-22 13:26:29	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 22?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x505bd6…
10-22 13:25:53	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on October 22?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xdfb0e4…
10-22 08:51:33	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on October 22?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x7adec5…
10-21 23:21:23	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 22?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xff24b1…
10-21 03:22:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x9235bb…
10-20 17:14:51	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on October 20?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x79c4b7…
10-20 13:32:20	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on October 20?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xe06bb2…
10-20 13:31:57	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on October 20?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x898d29…
10-20 08:32:26	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 21?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x10d1dc…
10-20 08:31:53	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on October 21?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x12cd04…
10-20 06:09:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on October 21?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x560b96…
10-20 06:08:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on October 21?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x57845e…
10-19 01:20:56	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on October 20?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x553020…
10-19 00:34:36	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on October 19?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x32ab84…
10-19 00:33:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 19?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x9f62e2…
10-19 00:31:06	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 19?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x3b2b8b…
10-18 05:06:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x20c4e1…
10-18 05:05:14	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 18?	No	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0x855a42…
10-18 05:03:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 18?	No	SELL	2	14¢	$0	0x33da63…
10-18 03:04:48	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 18?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xbd34d8…
10-18 02:59:35	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on October 18?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x8c15c8…
10-18 02:58:21	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 18?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x24fd8c…
10-18 02:56:50	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on October 18?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x6d904e…
10-18 02:50:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 18?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xe659ce…
10-17 05:29:37	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on October 17?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xedbd1f…
10-17 05:29:17	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on October 17?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x978099…
10-17 05:28:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on October 17?	No	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0x6959f6…