Sparkling-Stadium-Saucer — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$77

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

36.7%

Resolved (90d)

117

Trades (90d)

199

2,769 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$228

$2.97K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-16

last 11-10 15:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 92 days

Categories

Other

77% 23% -$237

Sports

19% 46% -$159

Tech

3% 40% -$12

Politics

1% 50% $0

Crypto

0% 33% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No		+10	$9	89¢	$9	+$0	11-10 15:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.0T and $2.25T?	10	$252	139	139	+0	open	—	07-12 01:40
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$106	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$106	06-12 04:54
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$104	2,000	0	+2,000	No	-$104	06-12 04:53
f1 british grand prix h2h hamilton vs piastri 2026 07 05	2	$89	60	60	+0	Hamilton	+$29	07-05 16:23
f1 british grand prix h2h norris vs hamilton 2026 07 05	2	$79	60	50	+10	Hamilton	+$29	07-05 15:32
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$62	98	80	+18	No	-$46	09-15 11:38
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 22?	2	$48	50	50	+0	Yes	+$47	07-22 08:08
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 3?	9	$39	60	60	+0	No	-$19	07-04 09:32
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 14?	6	$33	21	21	+0	Yes	+$5	09-14 07:22
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19?	14	$27	135	85	+50	No	+$4	06-19 04:36
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?	2	$23	16	16	+0	Yes	+$7	06-10 11:40
f1 hungarian grand prix h2h leclerc vs norris 2026 07 26	1	$23	40	0	+40	Norris	-$23	07-23 17:16
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?	3	$23	18	18	+0	No	+$14	06-14 19:05
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	5	$22	30	30	+0	Yes	+$10	06-27 15:07
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 3?	10	$21	228	228	+0	No	-$10	07-03 02:57
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 16?	8	$21	43	43	+0	Yes	+$18	07-16 07:39
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	2	$19	40	21	+19	No	-$19	06-11 10:06
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1300?	4	$19	35	35	+0	No	+$5	09-10 15:15
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 13?	12	$18	124	114	+11	No	+$14	07-13 17:38
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 1?	4	$17	30	30	+0	Yes	+$15	07-01 07:06
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	2	$17	81	81	+0	open	—	07-18 05:23
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 20?	5	$16	30	30	+0	Yes	+$15	07-20 11:02
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?	2	$16	28	0	+28	No	+$1	05-27 18:40
trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	2	$16	10	10	+0	No	+$4	07-02 15:40
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?	1	$16	100	0	+100	No	-$16	07-14 14:56
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 25?	3	$15	15	15	+0	Yes	+$14	07-25 09:01
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on July 7?	18	$14	100	75	+25	No	+$12	07-07 11:12
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 3?	5	$14	40	38	+2	No	+$9	07-03 06:48
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 17?	6	$13	60	60	+0	No	+$11	07-17 07:00
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17?	4	$12	88	77	+11	No	+$4	06-17 03:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-10 15:50:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x29ab4e…
10-24 05:56:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0xbe94d7…
10-21 03:19:26	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xc2ffe1…
10-21 03:19:26	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x840d5f…
10-21 03:19:26	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x7ba51f…
10-20 08:09:07	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	89	1¢	$1	0x5a955e…
10-20 03:01:08	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x06065b…
10-15 04:46:22	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	55	1¢	$1	0x5a6b94…
10-11 08:59:40	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 11?	Yes	SELL	19	0¢	$0	0x9bc5d6…
10-11 06:46:59	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 11?	Yes	SELL	19	8¢	$2	0xb54a95…
10-11 03:36:26	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	38	1¢	$0	0xb564d2…
10-07 07:29:47	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$1	0xf86b89…
09-29 07:49:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xdbcc92…
09-29 07:45:00	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0xc2bf87…
09-29 03:59:23	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xa4bd90…
09-26 08:22:08	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 26?	No	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0x8e5ea2…
09-23 07:32:56	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on September 23?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x526b23…
09-23 05:08:19	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 23?	No	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0xb9237d…
09-22 06:04:45	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 22?	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0x0bee93…
09-22 06:00:46	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 22?	Yes	BUY	35	2¢	$1	0x8dc9be…
09-22 06:00:28	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 22?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x9c10d4…
09-22 05:54:58	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 22?	Yes	BUY	23	1¢	$0	0xee1579…
09-21 10:34:45	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on September 21?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x72596f…
09-21 06:36:59	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 21?	No	BUY	16	4¢	$1	0x51141e…
09-21 06:36:33	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0xb99606…
09-21 06:32:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xebaea7…
09-21 06:26:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xdd8ded…
09-20 19:49:47	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0x647316…
09-20 19:49:47	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x0d3802…
09-20 19:37:20	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0xcd2bd5…
09-20 19:23:41	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xb3cde9…
09-19 13:41:48	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on September 19?	Yes	BUY	48	1¢	$0	0xddf0c1…
09-19 13:41:48	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on September 19?	Yes	BUY	52	1¢	$0	0x0534af…
09-18 12:16:45	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x0fd626…
09-18 12:16:44	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	BUY	47	1¢	$0	0x095ac0…
09-18 07:55:27	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	0	5¢	$0	0xa5ca39…
09-18 07:14:43	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	SELL	94	0¢	$0	0x37a846…
09-18 03:57:22	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	SELL	70	2¢	$1	0xcdff1d…
09-18 03:57:06	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x163bb1…
09-17 14:03:06	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on September 17?	No	BUY	12	4¢	$0	0x6a91eb…
09-17 07:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	BUY	31	1¢	$0	0xcc5a44…
09-17 07:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x6dd7ba…
09-17 07:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x6b5fd0…
09-17 07:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x643214…
09-17 07:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x4a729c…
09-17 07:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x49310f…
09-17 07:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x4382a8…
09-17 07:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x3dec93…
09-17 07:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x0b2fde…
09-17 07:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x058860…
09-17 07:01:13	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on September 18?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xcf2706…
09-17 06:58:27	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xf60a7f…
09-16 11:05:57	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xe7def3…
09-16 09:20:36	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x04ba76…
09-16 08:07:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc38548…
09-16 07:15:04	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x13f1b3…
09-15 11:38:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	80	10¢	$8	0xa8c1d5…
09-15 06:40:48	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 15?	No	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x43af23…
09-15 06:32:07	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 15?	No	BUY	280	0¢	$1	0x824a88…
09-15 06:32:06	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 15?	No	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0x8d8abb…
09-14 07:22:28	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 14?	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xf1c9e9…
09-14 07:22:28	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 14?	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xccfa5c…
09-14 07:22:28	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 14?	Yes	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0xc127a5…
09-14 07:16:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 14?	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x5d4ccc…
09-14 06:01:18	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0x9206f9…
09-14 06:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x5ac66e…
09-14 05:22:22	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on September 14?	No	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xb75fa1…
09-13 14:08:00	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	No	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x3a35c5…
09-13 13:56:16	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x8474b1…
09-13 13:56:00	Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0xbef726…
09-13 13:31:00	Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x41c593…
09-13 09:51:19	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x4c3b4b…
09-13 05:32:37	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xc07309…
09-13 05:24:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 13?	No	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0xcc808e…
09-12 10:47:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x2b79ce…
09-12 10:42:07	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x051b23…
09-12 10:37:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x5933c5…
09-12 08:48:58	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xad2d4a…
09-10 15:15:10	Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1300?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x76dd2e…
09-10 15:14:33	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xcd4510…
09-10 11:35:42	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on September 10?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x361788…
09-10 05:31:27	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 10?	No	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x021f4f…
09-10 05:16:10	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on September 10?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x2b8dff…
09-10 05:12:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on September 10?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x52566d…
09-10 05:09:39	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on September 10?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x3e08eb…
09-09 07:10:46	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	12	5¢	$1	0xf9dcb4…
09-09 07:10:46	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0xdfaf2c…
09-09 04:13:21	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x3a4ddb…
09-08 06:12:16	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xaa7390…
09-07 13:00:07	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x348816…
09-07 10:36:25	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0xd97b36…
09-07 06:21:27	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xd0e558…
09-07 05:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 7?	No	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x3dfbe4…
09-07 04:50:52	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x39d0d4…
09-06 14:25:45	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	No	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x80f5be…
09-06 09:05:19	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0xe3b9bc…
09-06 05:33:07	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on September 6?	Yes	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x35cdd5…
09-06 04:43:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x4969cd…
09-06 02:59:04	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x2444e6…
09-05 15:54:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	14	4¢	$1	0x3b0b21…