Golden-Adaptation — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$113

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

39.8%

Resolved (7d)

110

Trades (7d)

169

2,942 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$420

$6.75K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-02

last 10-30 20:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 142 days

Categories

Other

64% 14% -$319

Politics

32% 16% +$140

Sports

2% 19% -$20

Crypto

2% 49% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 106 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?	3	$222	210	210	+0	Yes	+$193	09-10 09:26
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	9	$136	127	127	+0	Yes	+$92	09-09 01:49
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 20–25%?	7	$67	84	84	+0	Yes	+$63	08-24 20:54
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on October 5?	2	$61	58	58	+0	Yes	+$56	10-05 11:12
Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?	8	$52	555	555	+0	No	-$50	09-16 00:17
Will Spain win on 2026-09-26?	2	$51	28	28	+0	Yes	+$5	09-26 20:49
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay?	5	$42	32	32	+0	Yes	+$9	06-16 00:12
will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	1	$42	168	0	+168	No	-$42	03-02 18:48
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 45% and 48% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$41	154	154	+0	Yes	+$23	10-05 00:06
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?	3	$37	24	24	+0	No	+$10	06-21 21:58
Will Victor Mellor be the RI-02 Republican nominee?	5	$37	139	0	+139	Yes	+$102	09-09 21:18
Will Keith Hoffmann be the Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic nominee?	7	$37	175	0	+175	No	-$37	09-09 21:18
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$36	34	34	+0	Yes	+$26	10-28 07:26
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland?	7	$36	29	20	+9	No	-$7	06-13 20:58
Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	5	$36	30	30	+0	Yes	+$22	09-21 10:07
Will the Left Party (V) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	4	$35	82	82	+0	Yes	-$10	09-12 20:15
Will Will Cole-Hamilton win the next Courtenay-Comox British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	2	$34	32	32	+0	Yes	+$29	10-25 09:56
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	4	$33	21	21	+0	Yes	$0	06-14 18:11
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$33	50	50	+0	No	-$9	06-28 03:17
Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	4	$32	29	29	+0	Yes	+$23	09-21 10:07
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	6	$32	33	33	+0	Yes	+$8	06-15 20:56
Will Atsumi Harasawa win the 2026 Yokohama mayoral election?	5	$31	416	416	+0	Yes	-$16	10-18 11:16
Will Leila do Vôlei win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	7	$31	186	185	+0	No	-$17	10-04 21:44
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?	4	$31	33	33	+0	Yes	+$0	06-24 02:45
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	4	$29	45	45	+0	Yes	+$23	10-26 00:36
Will MLSTP win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?	3	$27	243	243	+0	No	-$11	09-28 12:13
Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	3	$27	338	338	+0	No	+$16	09-20 18:33
Will Jozef Králik win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?	3	$26	24	24	+0	Yes	+$21	10-25 09:58
Will RNI win the next Moroccan legislative elections?	7	$24	419	0	+419	No	-$24	09-23 16:51
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	4	$23	46	46	+0	Yes	+$10	06-21 21:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 20:23:31	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	49	2¢	$1	0x89823d…
10-30 20:19:52	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	19	0¢	$0	0x80cc93…
10-30 20:19:39	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	36	0¢	$0	0xe3a3de…
10-30 16:09:10	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	26	1¢	$0	0xc77454…
10-30 16:08:04	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	19	47¢	$9	0x672d1e…
10-30 16:01:48	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x3f949a…
10-29 22:45:24	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0x73444a…
10-29 22:44:42	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xf51cfa…
10-29 22:44:22	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	21	12¢	$2	0xd7c1fb…
10-29 22:33:45	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	33	4¢	$1	0x0ed2b6…
10-29 22:28:21	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	9	37¢	$3	0x888eb7…
10-29 22:27:51	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x1d873b…
10-29 22:24:25	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	31	10¢	$3	0x1f9076…
10-29 22:23:36	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	113	1¢	$1	0xb05ae3…
10-29 22:17:19	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	51	2¢	$1	0xdff63c…
10-29 22:15:13	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0xf2ca1e…
10-29 22:08:01	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WY-AL House election by 50% or more?	Yes	BUY	217	1¢	$1	0x37c8db…
10-29 22:04:15	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 40%-45%?	Yes	BUY	32	9¢	$3	0x3d088c…
10-29 22:03:58	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 45%-50%?	Yes	BUY	46	5¢	$2	0x6011c0…
10-29 22:02:25	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	26	6¢	$2	0x070197…
10-29 22:01:49	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x5e9eb8…
10-29 11:04:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	213	4¢	$9	0x4d2dc4…
10-29 10:56:23	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	156	8¢	$12	0x2b1cef…
10-29 10:50:17	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	506	1¢	$7	0x59db2a…
10-29 09:22:41	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	49	0¢	$0	0x857022…
10-29 09:20:50	Will Joint List win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0xb1abbf…
10-29 09:19:56	Will Shas win 8-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	36	0¢	$0	0x709d89…
10-29 09:19:49	Will Otzma Yehudit win less than 4.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0xf16f03…
10-29 09:19:11	Will Together win 7-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0xf336c6…
10-29 09:18:47	Will Joint List win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	26	1¢	$0	0x7044b1…
10-29 09:18:29	Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0xb71182…
10-29 09:17:59	Will Ra'am win exactly 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	58	0¢	$0	0xfd9425…
10-29 09:17:49	Will Ra'am win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	67	1¢	$1	0xcd035e…
10-28 22:28:17	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	49	2¢	$1	0xdbabe6…
10-28 21:14:52	Will Noah Redden win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0xe7f54b…
10-28 21:08:13	Will Johnny Calderon win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	262	0¢	$1	0xc68192…
10-28 07:59:13	Will Kevin Klein win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	21	8¢	$2	0x9987c6…
10-28 07:58:52	Will Michael Vogiatzakis win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	44	4¢	$2	0xf4b87d…
10-28 07:57:41	Will Noah Redden win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0xe64e7e…
10-28 07:29:46	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	58	5¢	$3	0x70c67c…
10-28 07:26:25	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	34	91¢	$31	0x5dcf34…
10-27 18:52:03	Will Yashar win 22-24% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0xe10005…
10-27 18:51:45	Will Yashar win 24% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xcd3676…
10-27 18:40:26	Will Likud win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x6d1eb0…
10-27 18:39:14	Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	33	4¢	$1	0x59b851…
10-27 18:33:11	Will Together win 7-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	13	12¢	$2	0x634495…
10-27 18:18:47	Will Shas win 8-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	36	4¢	$2	0xf418f1…
10-27 18:16:08	Will Otzma Yehudit win less than 4.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	17	8¢	$1	0x2f2156…
10-27 16:44:57	Will Joint List win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xa18def…
10-27 16:44:41	Will Joint List win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0x2799f9…
10-27 16:43:47	Will UTJ win 9-10 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0x6465f5…
10-27 16:42:06	Will Ra'am win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	67	2¢	$1	0xa67e17…
10-27 16:41:54	Will Ra'am win exactly 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	58	4¢	$2	0xcef23f…
10-27 16:41:33	Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	24	10¢	$2	0x197e46…
10-27 16:34:08	Will voter turnout be between 70% and 72% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	56	3¢	$2	0xc206df…
10-27 16:33:57	Will voter turnout be between 72% and 74% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	67	4¢	$2	0x33082f…
10-27 16:29:08	Will Otzma Yehudit win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x405d6d…
10-27 16:28:41	Will United Torah Judaism win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	44	3¢	$1	0xabb939…
10-27 16:27:24	Will Shas win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	43	3¢	$1	0xfc33b5…
10-27 16:26:56	Will United Torah Judaism win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	164	1¢	$1	0xf3fe91…
10-27 16:24:51	Will Otzma Yehudit win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	18	9¢	$2	0x1ee415…
10-27 16:24:33	Will The Democrats win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	61	2¢	$1	0x9c717e…
10-27 16:24:21	Will Joint List win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xfe9b77…
10-27 16:20:44	Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x7107f0…
10-27 16:20:24	Will Otzma win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xb8d788…
10-27 16:17:59	Will Amcha Yisrael win 5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x767f27…
10-27 16:16:38	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 8% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	19	14¢	$3	0x69a401…
10-27 15:47:14	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xfb9b00…
10-27 15:46:54	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0xbdfb1f…
10-27 15:36:35	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	22	16¢	$4	0x29ec37…
10-27 15:35:57	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	41	6¢	$3	0xfd5685…
10-27 00:16:29	Will Jim Lee win the 2026 Oshawa mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	16	8¢	$1	0x01258c…
10-27 00:16:06	Will Conny Glenn win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	12	10¢	$1	0x44c215…
10-27 00:15:14	Will Volker Kromm win the 2026 Thunder Bay mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	14	8¢	$1	0x032c1d…
10-27 00:13:57	Will Janice Frampton win the 2026 Pickering mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x75d52d…
10-27 00:09:24	Will Ann-Marie Zammit win the 2026 St. Catharines mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0xf76e26…
10-27 00:06:12	Will Jo-Dee Burbach win the 2026 Stratford mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	35	13¢	$4	0x0be9d7…
10-27 00:04:41	Will Berry Vrbanovic win the 2026 Kitchener mayoral election?	No	BUY	29	6¢	$2	0xe4e79b…
10-27 00:04:21	Will David Alton win the 2026 Kitchener mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	33	5¢	$2	0xf41a25…
10-27 00:03:57	Will Cindy Ward win the 2026 Kitchener mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	39	5¢	$2	0xe101f6…
10-27 00:03:24	Will Wazhma Frogh win the 2026 Kitchener mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	97	1¢	$1	0x8f608a…
10-26 23:44:29	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xe3e8d8…
10-26 21:31:54	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xca191b…
10-26 20:56:27	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	12	7¢	$1	0x4c0e25…
10-26 20:44:23	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x6a4d60…
10-26 20:40:56	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	16	14¢	$2	0x7ba677…
10-26 20:40:30	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	15	14¢	$2	0x1708c0…
10-26 20:39:47	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x629cba…
10-26 20:26:23	Will Janice Frampton win the 2026 Pickering mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0xe46b8a…
10-26 20:25:42	Will Frank Scarpitti win the 2026 Markham mayoral election?	No	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0xadac7a…
10-26 20:23:06	Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0x47167a…
10-26 20:16:33	Will Sean O'Meara win the 2026 Oakville mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	22	6¢	$1	0xa3727b…
10-26 20:15:29	Will Bryan Paterson win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election?	No	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x31637f…
10-26 20:14:11	Will Ann-Marie Zammit win the 2026 St. Catharines mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	27	7¢	$2	0x688179…
10-26 20:11:36	Will Bryan Paterson win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election?	No	BUY	22	7¢	$2	0xeda648…
10-26 20:10:30	Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x7cca74…
10-26 20:10:14	Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	42	6¢	$2	0x41e107…
10-26 20:08:36	Will Volker Kromm win the 2026 Thunder Bay mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	21	8¢	$2	0xf86d0b…
10-26 20:05:47	Will Janice Frampton win the 2026 Pickering mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0xc00963…
10-26 20:05:12	Will Jim Lee win the 2026 Oshawa mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	17	9¢	$2	0xb9401f…