Golden-Adaptation — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$51

Unrealized P&L

-$25

Hit rate

42.5%

Resolved (90d)

1,220

Trades (90d)

1,911

3,045 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$4.48K

$7.12K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

7 positions

First seen

2026-03-02

last 11-04 18:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 144 days

Categories

Other

61% 14% -$330

Politics

35% 15% +$114

Sports

2% 19% -$20

Crypto

2% 49% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 106 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine?	Yes	+629	$4	0¢	$3	-$1	11-03 16:03
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan?	Yes	+567	$3	0¢	$1	-$2	11-03 16:03
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio?	Yes	+567	$3	0¢	$1	-$2	11-03 15:59
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan?	Yes	+567	$3	0¢	$1	-$3	11-03 16:00
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine and Michigan?	Yes	+562	$5	0¢	$1	-$4	11-03 16:03
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	Yes	+405	$10	0¢	$1	-$9	11-03 16:05
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	+600	$4	0¢	$1	-$4	11-03 16:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?	3	$222	210	210	+0	Yes	+$193	09-10 09:26
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	9	$136	127	127	+0	Yes	+$92	09-09 01:49
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 20–25%?	7	$67	84	84	+0	Yes	+$63	08-24 20:54
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on October 5?	2	$61	58	58	+0	Yes	+$56	10-05 11:12
Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?	8	$52	555	555	+0	No	-$50	09-16 00:17
Will Spain win on 2026-09-26?	2	$51	28	28	+0	Yes	+$5	09-26 20:49
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay?	5	$42	32	32	+0	Yes	+$9	06-16 00:12
will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	1	$42	168	0	+168	No	-$42	03-02 18:48
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 45% and 48% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$41	154	154	+0	Yes	+$23	10-05 00:06
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?	3	$37	24	24	+0	No	+$10	06-21 21:58
Will Victor Mellor be the RI-02 Republican nominee?	5	$37	139	0	+139	Yes	+$102	09-09 21:18
Will Keith Hoffmann be the Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic nominee?	7	$37	175	0	+175	No	-$37	09-09 21:18
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$36	34	34	+0	Yes	+$26	10-28 07:26
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland?	7	$36	29	20	+9	No	-$7	06-13 20:58
Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	5	$36	30	30	+0	Yes	+$22	09-21 10:07
Will the Left Party (V) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	4	$35	82	82	+0	Yes	-$10	09-12 20:15
Will Will Cole-Hamilton win the next Courtenay-Comox British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	2	$34	32	32	+0	Yes	+$29	10-25 09:56
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	4	$33	21	21	+0	Yes	$0	06-14 18:11
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$33	50	50	+0	No	-$9	06-28 03:17
Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	4	$32	29	29	+0	Yes	+$23	09-21 10:07
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	6	$32	33	33	+0	Yes	+$8	06-15 20:56
Will Atsumi Harasawa win the 2026 Yokohama mayoral election?	5	$31	416	416	+0	Yes	-$16	10-18 11:16
Will Leila do Vôlei win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	7	$31	186	185	+0	No	-$17	10-04 21:44
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?	4	$31	33	33	+0	Yes	+$0	06-24 02:45
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	4	$29	45	45	+0	Yes	+$23	10-26 00:36
Will MLSTP win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?	3	$27	243	243	+0	No	-$11	09-28 12:13
Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	3	$27	338	338	+0	No	+$16	09-20 18:33
Will Jozef Králik win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?	3	$26	24	24	+0	Yes	+$21	10-25 09:58
Will RNI win the next Moroccan legislative elections?	7	$24	419	0	+419	No	-$24	09-23 16:51
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	4	$23	46	46	+0	Yes	+$10	06-21 21:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 18:45:01	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 12%-15%?	Yes	SELL	137	4¢	$6	0x908af4…
11-04 18:34:31	Will Xolani Khumalo be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni?	Yes	BUY	48	7¢	$4	0x295d5f…
11-04 18:33:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-06 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	SELL	12	65¢	$8	0x854877…
11-04 16:57:39	Will Herman Mashaba be the next mayor of Johannesburg?	Yes	BUY	32	12¢	$4	0xcec761…
11-04 16:57:19	Will Dada Morero be the next mayor of Johannesburg?	Yes	BUY	127	2¢	$3	0xe9f29f…
11-04 15:45:15	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 5%-10%?	Yes	SELL	110	0¢	$0	0x26f49c…
11-04 15:44:43	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	70	1¢	$1	0x77bbef…
11-04 15:42:04	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-01 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	53	0¢	$0	0x2fea6f…
11-04 15:40:58	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-09 House election by 15%-25%?	Yes	SELL	45	0¢	$0	0xe747c0…
11-04 15:39:10	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	45	1¢	$0	0x5e3287…
11-04 15:38:03	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 12%-15%?	Yes	SELL	147	0¢	$0	0xe5a31f…
11-04 15:37:49	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?	Yes	SELL	118	0¢	$0	0x0b77d4…
11-04 15:34:19	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	90	0¢	$0	0xbf69ee…
11-04 15:26:13	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NE-02 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	SELL	125	0¢	$0	0xf8df9b…
11-04 15:23:36	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NE-02 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x892b80…
11-04 15:22:19	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 45%-50%?	Yes	SELL	46	0¢	$0	0xfe61e4…
11-04 15:22:07	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 40%-45%?	Yes	SELL	32	2¢	$1	0x157cdd…
11-04 14:49:27	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x42fbbd…
11-04 14:49:13	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	26	1¢	$0	0xb21638…
11-04 14:31:33	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-04 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	SELL	86	0¢	$0	0x19d2d9…
11-04 14:31:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-04 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	128	0¢	$0	0x6494f5…
11-04 14:21:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-06 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	SELL	140	2¢	$2	0x99891e…
11-04 14:08:01	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 15%-18%?	Yes	SELL	63	0¢	$0	0x476f14…
11-04 14:01:58	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-09 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	141	0¢	$1	0x5da6d4…
11-04 13:55:24	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-10 House election by 75% or more?	Yes	SELL	167	0¢	$0	0xa97cce…
11-04 09:28:45	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election by 5%-10%?	Yes	SELL	265	0¢	$0	0x0784fe…
11-04 09:00:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 30%-35%?	Yes	SELL	106	0¢	$0	0x9b6b3c…
11-03 21:13:34	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	111	2¢	$2	0xc8bb8a…
11-03 21:09:55	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0xa1a1bf…
11-03 21:09:15	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-06 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0xacce1c…
11-03 20:50:40	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 9%-12%?	Yes	BUY	85	7¢	$6	0x17ddbe…
11-03 20:33:34	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	90	6¢	$5	0xe755f9…
11-03 20:33:07	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	106	5¢	$6	0x1d6b0e…
11-03 17:53:00	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	109	6¢	$6	0x502e30…
11-03 16:05:10	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	Yes	BUY	113	2¢	$3	0x85eb74…
11-03 16:04:37	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	Yes	BUY	140	2¢	$4	0x05f040…
11-03 16:03:58	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xbc9125…
11-03 16:03:48	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x666687…
11-03 16:03:36	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine and Michigan?	Yes	BUY	126	1¢	$1	0xf66993…
11-03 16:03:10	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan?	Yes	BUY	567	1¢	$3	0x1f0376…
11-03 16:01:49	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine?	Yes	BUY	486	1¢	$3	0xadc09c…
11-03 16:00:04	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan?	Yes	BUY	567	1¢	$3	0xe14c01…
11-03 15:59:16	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio?	Yes	BUY	567	1¢	$3	0x7b0995…
11-03 15:58:21	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine and Michigan?	Yes	BUY	436	1¢	$4	0x36b80c…
11-03 15:57:24	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	Yes	BUY	152	2¢	$4	0x87b97c…
11-03 15:40:37	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	BUY	457	1¢	$3	0xdd6642…
11-03 14:30:07	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 12%-15%?	Yes	BUY	147	6¢	$9	0xabf575…
11-03 14:29:48	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?	Yes	BUY	118	8¢	$9	0x36c124…
11-03 14:20:48	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?	Yes	BUY	121	4¢	$5	0x7fdcdc…
11-03 14:17:18	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 15%-18%?	Yes	BUY	192	1¢	$2	0x9a50e6…
11-03 14:14:19	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 12%-15%?	Yes	BUY	106	5¢	$5	0xcacc03…
11-03 13:49:04	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Montana Senate election by 12%-15%?	Yes	BUY	16	9¢	$2	0x82c7db…
11-03 13:48:52	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Montana Senate election by 15%-18%?	Yes	BUY	125	7¢	$9	0xe03690…
11-03 13:48:00	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Montana Senate election by 12%-15%?	Yes	BUY	116	9¢	$11	0xe61652…
11-03 13:33:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-01 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	53	4¢	$2	0x5e9b07…
11-03 13:02:06	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-09 House election by 15%-25%?	Yes	BUY	45	6¢	$3	0xc2d9a1…
11-03 12:34:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-04 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	128	4¢	$5	0x702078…
11-03 12:34:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-04 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	86	4¢	$4	0x313d9b…
11-03 11:59:57	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	99	13¢	$13	0xbdce30…
11-03 11:53:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	213	8¢	$18	0xc62d41…
11-02 22:30:00	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x4ca3c4…
11-02 22:29:33	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	32	12¢	$4	0xaf7a13…
11-02 22:27:24	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 5%-10%?	Yes	BUY	110	4¢	$4	0xd598c8…
11-02 22:07:45	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-10 House election by 35%-45%?	Yes	BUY	102	2¢	$2	0x05408f…
11-02 22:07:30	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-10 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	BUY	146	1¢	$2	0x997ff7…
11-02 22:07:07	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-10 House election by 75% or more?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x62b3bf…
11-02 21:58:07	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-09 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	141	6¢	$8	0xf05a5b…
11-02 21:16:40	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-10 House election by 70%-75%?	Yes	BUY	163	8¢	$12	0x717141…
11-02 21:16:19	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-10 House election by 75% or more?	Yes	BUY	136	8¢	$11	0xf32a87…
11-02 21:08:06	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	43	9¢	$4	0x7a87d5…
11-02 21:02:19	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-07 House election by 15%-18%?	Yes	BUY	106	9¢	$10	0x1fa27b…
11-02 20:43:19	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-04 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	146	7¢	$11	0x9e7dc4…
11-02 20:34:13	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-06 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	BUY	69	8¢	$6	0x7c6328…
11-02 18:28:09	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-06 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	158	8¢	$13	0x02d4da…
11-02 18:09:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 15%-18%?	Yes	BUY	63	4¢	$2	0xdefb03…
11-02 18:09:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 12%-15%?	Yes	BUY	137	6¢	$8	0xa2f5ee…
11-02 18:03:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon Senate election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	116	6¢	$6	0x9216a6…
11-02 17:58:24	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NE-02 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x9b2c34…
11-02 17:53:18	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NE-02 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	BUY	128	1¢	$2	0xae341b…
11-02 16:56:58	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KS-02 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0xa67829…
11-02 15:11:49	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election by 5%-10%?	Yes	BUY	265	4¢	$11	0x6597d8…
11-02 13:43:12	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	58	4¢	$2	0xa3a054…
11-02 13:00:16	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 SC-06 House election by 45% or more?	Yes	BUY	26	7¢	$2	0x3bcc75…
11-02 11:56:27	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	241	8¢	$19	0x05bdf5…
11-02 11:48:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	43	4¢	$2	0x4c5efe…
11-02 11:45:57	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	34	8¢	$3	0x2697e2…
11-02 11:43:04	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	111	2¢	$2	0xdc2272…
11-02 11:42:48	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	78	3¢	$2	0x3aae78…
11-02 09:20:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	45	7¢	$3	0x4df9b3…
11-02 09:18:58	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Senate election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	410	1¢	$3	0x01354d…
11-02 09:06:37	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0x0fdf54…
11-01 18:27:36	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 22-24%?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xd4b3f4…
11-01 15:40:01	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 20-22%?	Yes	SELL	52	0¢	$0	0x63fd0c…
11-01 15:39:46	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 18-20%?	Yes	SELL	83	0¢	$0	0x83ec2a…
11-01 11:17:37	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be less than 18%?	Yes	SELL	53	0¢	$0	0x752842…
11-01 10:02:24	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 22-24%?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$1	0x6adcd8…
11-01 09:50:33	Will Andrey Gyurov win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by at least 12%?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x9843a4…
11-01 09:50:04	Will Andrey Gyurov win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	98	4¢	$4	0x25a5c1…
11-01 09:48:57	Will Andrey Gyurov win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	102	4¢	$4	0x0ec916…
11-01 08:48:52	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 20-22%?	Yes	BUY	52	8¢	$4	0x946336…