Remorseful-Sermon — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

181 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$298

$4.05K lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$28

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-29 10:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 102 days

Categories

Crypto

47% 99% -$17

Other

43% 97% -$78

Politics

8% 100% +$1

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No		+28	$28	99¢	$28	$0	10-29 10:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	1	$64	65	+65	Yes	-$64	05-15 00:12
Will Azerbaijan be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$62	62	+62	No	+$0	05-14 06:44
bitcoin above 64k on april 17	1	$55	56	+56	Yes	+$0	04-15 01:32
bitcoin above 80k on april 16	1	$55	55	+55	No	+$0	04-15 22:08
bitcoin above 82k on april 15	2	$53	54	+54	No	+$0	04-14 02:58
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$46	46	+46	No	+$0	05-18 05:43
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 26?	1	$46	46	+46	Yes	+$0	04-25 08:58
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7?	1	$45	45	+45	Yes	+$0	05-06 09:17
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	1	$44	44	+44	No	+$0	05-04 11:39
Will Gary L. Rogge win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	1	$43	43	+43	No	+$0	05-09 12:43
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?	1	$42	42	+42	No	+$0	04-30 14:24
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	2	$42	42	+42	No	+$0	07-15 17:39
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3?	1	$39	39	+39	Yes	+$0	05-02 03:16
will solana dip to 40 in january 2026	2	$38	38	+38	No	+$0	01-25 00:21
will the ecb announce an increase at the march 2026 meeting	2	$36	36	+36	No	+$0	02-27 15:03
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	1	$35	35	+35	No	+$0	05-01 13:16
Will Nikolai Denkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	1	$33	34	+34	No	+$0	04-18 01:50
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$33	33	+33	No	+$0	09-14 06:23
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 90 114	1	$33	33	+33	No	+$0	04-22 00:41
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 12-18?	1	$33	33	+33	No	+$0	10-16 22:09
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 10?	1	$32	32	+32	Yes	+$0	10-10 12:38
bitcoin above 66k on april 21	1	$32	33	+33	Yes	+$0	04-19 06:59
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 300 319	1	$32	32	+32	No	+$0	04-23 07:56
ethereum above 1800 on july 27 2026	1	$31	31	+31	Yes	+$0	07-27 07:30
bitcoin above 58k on august 1 2026	1	$31	31	+31	Yes	+$0	07-31 22:16
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	1	$30	30	+30	Yes	+$0	09-23 09:40
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10?	1	$30	30	+30	No	+$0	05-10 04:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	1	$29	29	+29	No	+$0	04-29 07:24
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4?	1	$29	29	+29	No	+$0	05-03 00:47
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	1	$29	29	+29	No	+$0	08-08 08:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 10:31:53	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xd80fdc…
10-23 15:54:54	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 October 19-25?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x0a21b5…
10-21 09:23:24	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa1aa9b…
10-19 23:25:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xc5fb72…
10-19 02:45:24	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x839096…
10-16 22:09:27	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 12-18?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x8b87ed…
10-12 09:47:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 12?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xdc0fad…
10-11 07:58:33	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x127634…
10-10 12:38:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 10?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x662fb6…
10-06 04:38:54	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$20	0x1fcc6b…
10-04 18:04:46	will bitcoin dip to 82k september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x338c4b…
10-03 22:31:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x8f43cc…
10-02 01:19:27	Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x6eb75c…
09-29 07:55:03	Will Solana reach $140 in September?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xf0c0e7…
09-28 02:51:32	will ethereum dip to 2600 september 21 27 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x31137b…
09-23 09:40:20	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa7bcdb…
09-20 05:47:25	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 20?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x656d33…
09-14 15:38:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 15?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x41c8a0…
09-14 06:23:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x41b789…
09-04 23:22:16	bitcoin above 76k on september 5 2026	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x2a93f6…
08-30 22:45:40	Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xf07b88…
08-27 10:12:55	Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x5b533e…
08-24 04:14:10	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x5cf90f…
08-23 06:43:39	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x07bf9c…
08-18 16:57:48	bitcoin above 68k on august 19 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x53f48d…
08-17 07:11:31	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x2af29c…
08-13 04:08:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xd929e2…
08-11 16:36:30	will bitcoin dip to 61k on august 11	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xd452ba…
08-10 22:40:16	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xbb2793…
08-08 08:08:15	Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0xf97970…
08-06 19:57:44	bitcoin above 68k on august 8 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x461536…
08-01 02:00:42	Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9cb684…
07-31 22:16:15	bitcoin above 58k on august 1 2026	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xa501d4…
07-29 01:25:50	Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xae3579…
07-27 07:30:45	ethereum above 1800 on july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xeff977…
07-26 17:20:22	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x789649…
07-25 18:49:21	Will the winner of the 2026 Tour De France be from Denmark?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x2aa3ad…
07-24 21:56:04	will bitcoin reach 70k july 20 26 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x8b1517…
07-19 02:50:45	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x5ce9a3…
07-17 22:33:49	will ethereum dip to 1300 july 13 19 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xa4816b…
07-15 17:39:26	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x1ed2fb…
07-15 17:32:04	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x71ec75…
07-13 12:19:02	ethereum above 1900 on july 13 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xde2637…
07-12 10:58:29	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x2be0bb…
07-11 16:41:59	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x1d3c04…
07-11 01:20:14	bitcoin above 62k on july 11 2026	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xd25f68…
07-10 11:23:55	will bitcoin dip to 56k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x166152…
07-05 07:43:23	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x0a00aa…
07-04 07:56:31	bitcoin above 58k on july 5 2026	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xd97349…
07-03 11:27:13	bitcoin above 54k on july 5 2026	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xc7f122…
07-02 15:21:14	bitcoin above 68k on july 4 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xa04f03…
07-02 06:24:25	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x8ed6f8…
07-02 05:58:49	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xbbb2b0…
07-01 11:58:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 3	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x8faad0…
07-01 11:26:47	will andurils valuation hit high 110b by june 30	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x21a33e…
06-30 08:12:38	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xee60fc…
06-25 11:09:28	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 26 20260622192122519	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xe5571f…
06-23 07:39:08	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x992cd3…
06-22 17:11:04	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xc6193b…
06-21 19:42:37	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 22 183	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xe321cd…
06-08 03:34:03	bitcoin above 58k on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x538789…
06-06 12:39:13	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x4cdbd8…
06-02 23:54:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x2f00a6…
06-01 23:04:59	Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x274c07…
06-01 19:29:58	Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xd0f27d…
06-01 17:12:31	Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x5d1a17…
05-31 11:13:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xb83c4c…
05-30 23:15:01	Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x574a84…
05-30 03:52:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x21cd06…
05-29 18:43:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3cd4ac…
05-28 20:54:42	Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa063db…
05-28 12:12:03	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd56cd4…
05-27 19:29:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$12	0x37ca14…
05-27 11:53:35	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xa920da…
05-26 21:18:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x3c463e…
05-26 08:51:29	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x2e018e…
05-25 21:41:30	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xc54f4b…
05-24 12:55:44	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xa4a98b…
05-23 20:16:09	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x60e8d6…
05-23 17:52:43	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2dd1c7…
05-22 17:10:31	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xafcdd8…
05-22 09:33:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x494c79…
05-21 00:28:12	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xf67852…
05-20 20:30:10	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x39ac2c…
05-19 23:45:15	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x36d7cc…
05-18 05:43:31	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x33c426…
05-18 05:37:19	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x1e6976…
05-17 23:24:00	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x577f3b…
05-17 03:24:21	Will Gregg Kirkpatrick win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x0308f3…
05-16 14:35:59	Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x8e9f82…
05-16 02:44:52	Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win the Andalusia regional election?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xf84878…
05-15 13:00:57	Will Moldova be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x1a22ca…
05-15 00:36:52	Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xa9ec3b…
05-15 00:12:07	Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$64	0x0869ab…
05-14 09:07:01	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 14?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x5e272d…
05-14 06:44:58	Will Azerbaijan be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	62	100¢	$62	0x36effa…
05-13 19:05:31	Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa51548…
05-12 12:42:57	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xba14b4…
05-12 03:08:26	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x8a9da2…
05-11 22:59:03	Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x839b67…