Strong-Exhaustion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$195

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

86.3%

Resolved

702

Trades

883

lifetime

Volume

$18.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$101

1 position

First seen

2026-04-05

last 10-25 09:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Other

64% 71% -$93

Crypto

26% 76% -$134

Politics

9% 63% +$17

Sports

1% 55% +$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+102	$100	98¢	$101	+$1	10-25 09:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 31?	2	$204	104	104	+0	No	+$4	06-01 07:03
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 31?	2	$202	102	102	+0	No	+$2	05-31 08:35
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 29?	2	$201	101	101	+0	No	+$1	05-30 05:56
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 31?	2	$201	101	101	+0	No	+$1	05-31 18:02
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29?	2	$194	108	108	+0	No	+$21	05-29 16:31
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 29?	2	$177	93	93	+0	No	-$1	05-29 08:40
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 29?	2	$177	89	89	+0	No	+$1	05-29 08:17
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 28?	2	$177	89	89	+0	No	+$1	05-28 18:19
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 28?	2	$173	88	88	+0	No	+$3	05-28 17:01
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on May 27?	2	$170	85	85	+0	No	+$0	05-28 06:21
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary by 20–30%?	2	$168	86	86	+0	Yes	$0	06-12 08:53
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	2	$166	84	84	+0	Yes	+$2	06-10 15:51
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 26?	2	$166	85	85	+0	No	+$4	05-27 05:53
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	2	$164	83	83	+0	No	+$2	06-10 05:57
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?	2	$161	83	83	+0	No	+$1	06-09 13:36
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C or higher on May 26?	2	$161	81	81	+0	No	+$1	05-26 17:53
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 27?	2	$160	81	81	+0	No	+$0	05-27 14:47
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C or higher on May 24?	2	$156	79	79	+0	No	+$1	05-24 16:10
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	2	$155	87	87	+0	No	-$13	06-12 14:28
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 24?	2	$153	77	77	+0	No	+$2	05-24 08:47
amzn up or down on june 12 2026	4	$148	79	79	+0	Down	+$3	06-12 20:01
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23?	2	$145	75	75	+0	No	+$5	05-23 18:37
will spy dip to 735 by june 1 2026	2	$136	69	69	+0	No	+$2	06-05 20:00
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	2	$135	70	70	+0	Yes	+$1	06-04 13:16
rbrk quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 04 2026 neg0pt03	2	$133	69	69	+0	Yes	-$3	06-04 13:57
xauusd up or down on june 4 2026	2	$132	67	67	+0	Up	+$2	06-04 21:07
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 2?	2	$132	66	66	+0	No	+$0	06-02 18:11
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 2?	2	$131	66	66	+0	No	+$1	06-02 16:53
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	2	$131	67	67	+0	Yes	+$3	05-20 17:12
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 2?	2	$130	65	65	+0	No	+$0	06-02 10:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 09:24:47	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xc00be3…
10-23 09:31:47	Will Steven Del Duca win the 2026 Vaughan mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xd025f0…
10-22 20:57:12	Will Steven Del Duca win the 2026 Vaughan mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x7a556a…
10-22 18:29:17	Will Matúš Vallo win the 2026 Bratislava mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	14	92¢	$13	0xc5c5e4…
10-22 07:45:51	Will Juraj Droba win the 2026 Bratislava Region gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	78	98¢	$76	0x157f7a…
10-20 17:05:33	Will Matúš Vallo win the 2026 Bratislava mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x985de2…
10-20 12:48:42	Will General Motors say "Battery" during earnings call?	Yes	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0xf19870…
10-19 10:41:26	Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	76	97¢	$74	0x9f0ad2…
10-18 15:11:14	Will General Motors say "Battery" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$14	0x06dfe2…
07-13 19:56:26	spx up or down on july 13 2026	Down	SELL	52	100¢	$51	0x59a69a…
07-13 15:56:25	spx up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xcbed3c…
07-13 15:55:53	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0x5ca791…
07-13 09:25:19	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x6ae41b…
07-13 08:37:19	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x1b4e0b…
07-13 08:32:34	wti closes above 78 on july 13 2026	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x8f07c8…
07-13 07:18:29	Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?	Yes	SELL	52	81¢	$42	0xfd6709…
07-12 15:34:11	Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?	Yes	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xa86fc2…
07-12 08:49:07	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x9dca2b…
07-10 08:31:04	will xauusd dip to 4000 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x80d114…
07-10 08:30:52	will tsla dip to 375 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xd07c7d…
07-09 19:39:56	spy up or down on july 9 2026	Up	SELL	52	100¢	$51	0x17eb37…
07-09 16:04:44	spy up or down on july 9 2026	Up	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x70123f…
07-09 16:04:01	abnb up or down on july 9 2026	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xce77e0…
07-08 17:24:17	xauusd up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0xcd973f…
07-08 17:23:29	spx up or down on july 8 2026	Down	SELL	52	84¢	$44	0x85f5ae…
07-08 16:54:22	meta up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0x1ff1a2…
07-08 16:53:59	nvda up or down on july 8 2026	Up	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x7983fe…
07-08 16:07:28	spx up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x74c028…
07-08 14:52:34	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0xa57a4c…
07-08 11:12:23	spy up or down on july 8 2026	Down	SELL	31	87¢	$27	0x37b14e…
07-08 11:10:58	spy up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	31	88¢	$27	0xa181a8…
07-08 06:52:02	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?	Yes	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0xd89c68…
07-07 21:05:13	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x7ff0ac…
07-07 21:04:55	wti up or down on july 7 2026	Up	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0xb7fbb4…
07-07 20:00:52	spy closes above 740 on july 7 2026	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xad3bbd…
07-07 14:25:38	wti up or down on july 7 2026	Up	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x94177b…
07-07 14:24:07	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0x68c090…
07-07 08:06:43	spy closes above 740 on july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x21d864…
07-06 21:11:16	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x6af978…
07-06 21:09:55	wti closes above 70 on july 6 2026	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x566c19…
07-06 14:51:26	wti closes above 70 on july 6 2026	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x5ab0f3…
07-06 05:22:26	Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0xead385…
07-05 16:09:49	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	No	SELL	21	80¢	$17	0xed0d32…
07-05 14:50:05	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	No	BUY	21	91¢	$19	0x046ae1…
07-05 14:16:53	Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x5049fc…
07-05 11:38:52	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?	Yes	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x44e7ef…
07-04 17:03:46	Will MrBeast's next video get between 58.5 and 59.25 million views in week 1?	Yes	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x42c2ad…
07-04 15:45:02	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xa17515…
07-04 11:45:22	Will MrBeast's next video get between 58.5 and 59.25 million views in week 1?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x223e5e…
07-04 09:33:46	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x258306…
07-03 16:56:46	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xabfc5d…
07-03 15:53:37	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x4314bf…
07-03 14:50:08	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x8d8d42…
07-03 14:49:29	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xabd467…
07-03 08:33:58	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xfd0c54…
07-02 22:18:16	wti closes above 70 on july 2 2026	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x27229b…
07-02 17:49:08	Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x8b834b…
07-02 17:37:05	meta up or down on july 2 2026	Down	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x45b079…
07-02 16:55:16	nvda up or down on july 2 2026	Down	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x7c2c4b…
07-02 14:58:35	meta up or down on july 2 2026	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x021a64…
07-02 12:56:52	Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xa17bd8…
07-02 09:55:59	wti closes above 70 on july 2 2026	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xc2b8f4…
07-01 16:38:16	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0xee64b9…
07-01 13:00:31	Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0xa60cb8…
07-01 08:37:10	bitcoin up or down july 1 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xaa8f1b…
06-30 20:48:16	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x4c30c3…
06-30 20:47:35	Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 1.5% and 3%?	No	SELL	53	92¢	$48	0x23bdee…
06-30 20:46:37	will trump say no no no donald in june	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xfc3ab8…
06-30 20:29:11	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$51	0x3607f0…
06-30 17:30:55	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x8ddfab…
06-30 17:18:16	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x35352b…
06-30 10:37:08	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x7eeda4…
06-29 20:17:44	Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xfa36af…
06-29 19:17:22	wti closes above 72 on june 29 2026	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x5e474a…
06-29 19:16:59	xauusd up or down on june 29 2026	Down	SELL	51	99¢	$51	0x667c2c…
06-29 17:57:59	xauusd up or down on june 29 2026	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xb99fa3…
06-29 17:57:11	Will Julia Letlow win the Louisiana Senate Republican Primary Runoff by more than 25%?	No	SELL	51	99¢	$51	0xc8b3ec…
06-28 11:09:14	Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x656136…
06-27 18:49:32	will mrbeast say chandler during his next youtube video 20260616145800200	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xe95394…
06-27 13:02:46	Will Julia Letlow win the Louisiana Senate Republican Primary Runoff by more than 25%?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xd3c4af…
06-27 11:10:10	will mrbeast say chandler during his next youtube video 20260616145800200	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0xd04534…
06-26 20:12:38	will abnb reach 148 by june 22 2026	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0x45f300…
06-26 15:43:52	will abnb reach 148 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x702643…
06-26 07:27:16	Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x2242d9…
06-25 20:37:52	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0x7b9739…
06-25 17:00:23	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xba1e4b…
06-24 07:24:28	Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 1.5% and 3%?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0xa0b15c…
06-23 17:53:47	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x81aef6…
06-23 16:53:31	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xc3216b…
06-23 15:53:53	Will Randi White be the Democratic nominee for MD-01?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x2fea9a…
06-23 15:53:43	xauusd up or down on june 23 2026	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x91a825…
06-22 09:00:43	wti closes above 71 on june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xe48321…
06-22 08:59:59	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	90¢	$49	0xb46c87…
06-22 07:30:31	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+?	No	SELL	49	100¢	$49	0x4222f4…
06-21 13:03:44	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+?	No	BUY	49	98¢	$47	0x207c9b…
06-21 13:03:23	will trump say swamp the vote this week 20260612151047658	No	BUY	49	97¢	$47	0xa5bc5e…
06-20 07:45:04	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x37c858…
06-19 16:35:28	Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0x64a141…
06-19 15:38:35	Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0x46b591…
06-19 15:38:11	will trump publicly praise mojtaba khamenei by friday 20260615235202828	No	SELL	36	82¢	$30	0x7db071…