Key-Bookcase — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7.66K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

43.0%

Resolved

197

Trades

1,218

lifetime

Volume

$64.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$53

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 07-03 13:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Politics

55% 50% -$5,924

Sports

21% 43% -$771

Other

16% 40% +$628

Crypto

8% 52% -$1,598

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-03).

Open positions Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	9	$13.0K	15,529	7,494	+8,035	Yes	-$6,380	06-11 22:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$10.6K	12,910	6,865	+6,045	No	+$1,184	05-24 04:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	2	$4.0K	4,301	4,301	+0	Yes	-$571	05-21 17:43
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	2	$4.0K	3,846	3,846	+0	cancelled	-$38	05-07 22:40
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$1.9K	10,200	10,200	+0	open	—	05-11 14:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	2	$1.8K	10,662	10,662	+0	No	-$169	05-21 18:48
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?	4	$1.8K	24,592	24,592	+0	open	—	06-11 22:43
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$1.6K	5,500	5,500	+0	No	+$572	07-03 13:15
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?	3	$1.0K	7,113	7,113	+0	open	—	06-11 22:40
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 4?	2	$1000	2,076	0	+2,076	Down	+$1,076	05-03 23:12
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	2	$994	5,747	5,747	+0	open	—	05-07 20:01
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?	3	$920	9,985	9,985	+0	open	—	06-11 22:42
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$894	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	-$114	07-03 13:14
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	3	$856	7,927	7,927	+0	open	—	06-11 22:43
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	95	$854	433	434	-1	Yes	+$0	01-23 18:29
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$846	5,500	5,500	+0	No	-$188	07-03 13:14
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$824	4,500	4,500	+0	No	-$185	07-03 13:14
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	52	$720	907	927	-20	No	-$15	01-26 04:57
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	13	$682	636	636	+0	No	-$10	01-26 04:57
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	29	$547	795	795	+0	No	+$4	01-26 04:57
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$513	3,000	0	+3,000	No	-$513	06-01 19:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	1	$500	631	0	+631	Down	-$500	05-05 05:13
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	1	$500	568	0	+568	Down	-$500	05-05 05:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	1	$500	505	0	+505	Up	+$5	05-05 04:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	1	$500	505	0	+505	Down	+$5	05-05 05:04
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	1	$500	506	0	+506	Up	+$6	05-05 05:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	1	$500	530	0	+530	Up	+$30	05-05 05:09
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	1	$500	513	0	+513	Up	+$13	05-05 04:38
cbb maslow umbc 2026 01 24 total 150pt5	1	$460	901	0	+901	Under	-$460	01-24 17:44
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	2	$457	3,574	3,574	+0	open	—	06-11 22:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 13:15:23	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5,500	19¢	$1,067	0x6afe0a…
07-03 13:14:59	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	3,000	13¢	$390	0x394cf4…
07-03 13:14:50	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5,500	6¢	$329	0x9ba9b6…
07-03 13:14:40	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	4,500	7¢	$319	0x9fa35f…
06-11 22:44:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,464	69¢	$1,700	0x500e13…
06-11 22:43:49	Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	7,927	4¢	$356	0x77c483…
06-11 22:43:42	Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	24,592	3¢	$767	0xc0763f…
06-11 22:42:54	Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	9,985	4¢	$420	0x70d516…
06-11 22:42:46	Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	3,574	6¢	$207	0x9d7b0d…
06-11 22:41:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	725	69¢	$500	0x254e03…
06-11 22:40:36	Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	7,113	7¢	$528	0x7fcf3c…
06-11 22:38:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	899	69¢	$620	0x22c262…
06-05 13:09:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,947	76¢	$3,000	0x2c6a75…
06-02 02:27:26	Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	12,207	4¢	$500	0x365c30…
06-02 02:24:03	Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	3,690	7¢	$250	0x389e4c…
06-02 02:23:19	Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	4,586	5¢	$250	0x4de96a…
06-02 01:59:02	Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	6,135	4¢	$250	0x5e4316…
06-02 01:58:11	Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	3,541	7¢	$250	0x911c51…
06-02 01:43:45	Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	3,574	7¢	$250	0x5ce35e…
06-02 01:38:00	Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	6,250	4¢	$250	0xc35dee…
06-02 01:37:37	Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	5,400	5¢	$250	0x71088a…
06-02 01:36:43	Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	3,571	7¢	$250	0x9ea366…
06-02 01:36:22	Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	4,237	6¢	$250	0xac484c…
06-01 19:41:21	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5,500	9¢	$495	0x54e008…
06-01 19:38:05	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5,500	9¢	$517	0x6c5409…
06-01 19:37:37	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	4,500	11¢	$504	0xe789a2…
06-01 19:35:43	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3,000	17¢	$504	0x6ec687…
06-01 19:35:15	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3,000	17¢	$513	0xd996b5…
05-24 04:39:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,143	63¢	$720	0x0923fb…
05-21 21:01:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,902	82¢	$4,000	0x0d7d14…
05-21 19:04:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,024	38¢	$1,512	0x082a4d…
05-21 18:53:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,880	16¢	$621	0x106f2f…
05-21 18:48:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10,662	8¢	$831	0x420cbb…
05-21 17:54:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,880	26¢	$1,000	0xa752bf…
05-21 17:49:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,662	9¢	$1,000	0x70c6aa…
05-21 17:47:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,024	50¢	$2,000	0x5e35b8…
05-21 17:43:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4,301	40¢	$1,729	0x7d241d…
05-21 17:43:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3,470	51¢	$1,778	0xa17972…
05-21 17:43:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,985	75¢	$2,239	0x7f8f3d…
05-19 03:23:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,301	53¢	$2,300	0xf3d51a…
05-19 01:41:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,288	66¢	$850	0xb850af…
05-12 20:33:04	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	196	11¢	$23	0xe28c6b…
05-12 20:31:24	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0xb9e619…
05-11 22:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	917	11¢	$100	0xe5e2b9…
05-11 22:39:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	445	22¢	$100	0x11fb43…
05-11 22:33:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	286	35¢	$100	0x462a77…
05-11 20:33:52	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	271	37¢	$100	0x9806c2…
05-11 20:32:24	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	304	82¢	$250	0xd39012…
05-11 18:35:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	461	40¢	$183	0xd31381…
05-11 18:30:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	461	54¢	$250	0xfdc540…
05-11 17:33:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x9ea4ee…
05-11 14:01:06	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	10,200	8¢	$858	0x76b390…
05-11 01:38:35	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	10,200	10¢	$1,000	0xcc548d…
05-09 23:19:40	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	94	76¢	$71	0x120851…
05-09 23:16:09	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x59eebe…
05-08 15:33:31	XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x483a34…
05-08 15:02:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,985	67¢	$2,000	0x8e8205…
05-07 23:40:02	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x47b9a1…
05-07 23:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0x0834f1…
05-07 23:37:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	43	6¢	$3	0xe2ad76…
05-07 23:35:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0xfb7e79…
05-07 23:35:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xc714f4…
05-07 23:32:13	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	27	33¢	$9	0xf0c9cc…
05-07 23:31:40	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x7f1bc8…
05-07 22:40:03	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	SELL	3,846	51¢	$1,962	0x2b2bc6…
05-07 22:37:44	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	BUY	3,846	52¢	$2,000	0xd7f386…
05-07 21:57:21	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0x21f895…
05-07 21:57:07	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	38	27¢	$10	0x13ae32…
05-07 21:49:12	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0x631298…
05-07 21:38:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	SELL	78	39¢	$30	0x26eac1…
05-07 21:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x33dfe5…
05-07 21:17:34	XRP Up or Down - May 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x7809e2…
05-07 20:47:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0xc5dcdb…
05-07 20:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	42	92¢	$38	0x7df84f…
05-07 20:28:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xe3c4b8…
05-07 20:01:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,182	46¢	$1,000	0x92031a…
05-07 20:01:10	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,747	9¢	$494	0x9df40e…
05-07 19:51:50	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,747	9¢	$500	0x9ecbae…
05-05 05:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	631	79¢	$500	0x5fa8af…
05-05 05:13:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	568	88¢	$500	0x150cff…
05-05 05:09:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	530	94¢	$500	0x3942db…
05-05 05:08:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	506	99¢	$500	0x180b3e…
05-05 05:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x3d99b0…
05-05 04:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x32f738…
05-05 04:38:42	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	513	98¢	$500	0xcb287a…
05-03 23:12:12	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	945	53¢	$500	0xca8967…
05-03 23:07:38	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	1,131	44¢	$500	0x169b35…
01-26 04:57:16	highest temperature in nyc on january 26 34 35f	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xf43aeb…
01-26 04:57:16	caroline ellison new boyfriend by january 31	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x9463dd…
01-26 04:57:16	nfl la sea 2026 01 25	Seahawks	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x6b338b…
01-26 04:57:16	highest temperature in seattle on january 26 42 43f	No	SELL	7	94¢	$7	0x665c97…
01-26 04:57:16	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x500f0b…
01-26 04:57:16	us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x184d9c…
01-26 04:57:14	will giannis antetokounmpo not be traded	Yes	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0xae26cc…
01-26 04:57:14	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0x96e1b2…
01-26 04:57:14	israel x iran ceasefire broken by june 30 2026 438 193	Yes	SELL	8	58¢	$5	0x89b39b…
01-26 04:57:14	will the government shutdown last 1 day or more 842	Yes	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0x54b5f2…
01-26 04:57:14	Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	9	51¢	$5	0x474600…
01-26 04:57:12	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0xf668fa…
01-26 04:57:12	will carlos alcaraz win the 2026 australian open	Yes	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0xf0e6e0…