Key-Bookcase — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.60K

Unrealized P&L

+$336

Hit rate

55.6%

Resolved

Trades

1,178

lifetime

Volume

$33.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

$3.34K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-22

last 06-05 13:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

58% — —

Crypto

16% 55% $-1,603

Other

16% — —

Sports

11% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+3,947	$3,000	84¢	$3.3K	+$336	06-05 13:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$10.6K	12,910	6,865	+6,045	open	—	05-24 04:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$3.0K	3,947	0	+3,947	open	—	06-05 13:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	2	$1.8K	10,662	10,662	+0	open	—	05-21 18:48
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 4?	2	$1000	2,076	0	+2,076	open	—	05-03 23:12
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	95	$854	433	434	-1	open	—	01-23 18:29
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	52	$720	907	927	-20	open	—	01-26 04:57
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	13	$682	636	636	+0	open	—	01-26 04:57
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	29	$547	795	795	+0	open	—	01-26 04:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	1	$500	631	0	+631	Down	$-500	05-05 05:13
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	1	$500	568	0	+568	Down	$-500	05-05 05:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	1	$500	505	0	+505	Down	+$5	05-05 05:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	1	$500	505	0	+505	Up	+$5	05-05 04:48
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	1	$500	506	0	+506	Up	+$6	05-05 05:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	1	$500	530	0	+530	Up	+$30	05-05 05:09
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	1	$500	513	0	+513	Up	+$13	05-05 04:38
cbb maslow umbc 2026 01 24 total 150pt5	1	$460	901	0	+901	open	—	01-24 17:44
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	40	$442	275	275	+0	open	—	01-25 20:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	2	$433	461	461	+0	Down	$-67	05-11 18:35
nfl ne den 2026 01 25	11	$422	1,025	0	+1,025	open	—	01-25 22:55
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	13	$404	222	201	+21	open	—	01-26 04:57
nfl la sea 2026 01 25	15	$372	1,115	9	+1,107	open	—	01-26 04:57
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	2	$350	575	0	+575	Up	$-350	05-11 20:33
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	23	$319	195	195	+0	open	—	01-26 04:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	3	$300	1,647	0	+1,647	Up	$-300	05-11 22:41
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	21	$291	362	274	+88	open	—	01-24 04:50
tesla launches unsupervised full self driving fsd by march 31	71	$278	269	269	+0	open	—	01-26 04:57
nhl tb chi 2026 01 23	5	$256	749	39	+710	open	—	01-24 02:37
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	26	$245	248	273	-25	open	—	01-26 04:57
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	38	$233	119	119	+0	open	—	01-25 14:15
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	93	$225	312	312	+0	open	—	01-26 04:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 13:09:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,947	76¢	$3,000	0x2c6a75…
05-24 04:39:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,143	63¢	$720	0x0923fb…
05-21 21:01:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,902	82¢	$4,000	0x0d7d14…
05-21 18:53:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,880	16¢	$621	0x106f2f…
05-21 18:48:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10,662	8¢	$831	0x420cbb…
05-21 17:54:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,880	26¢	$1,000	0xa752bf…
05-21 17:49:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,662	9¢	$1,000	0x70c6aa…
05-21 17:43:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,985	75¢	$2,239	0x7f8f3d…
05-12 20:33:04	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	196	11¢	$23	0xe28c6b…
05-12 20:31:24	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0xb9e619…
05-11 22:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	917	11¢	$100	0xe5e2b9…
05-11 22:39:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	445	22¢	$100	0x11fb43…
05-11 22:33:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	286	35¢	$100	0x462a77…
05-11 20:33:52	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	271	37¢	$100	0x9806c2…
05-11 20:32:24	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	304	82¢	$250	0xd39012…
05-11 18:35:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	461	40¢	$183	0xd31381…
05-11 18:30:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	461	54¢	$250	0xfdc540…
05-11 17:33:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x9ea4ee…
05-09 23:19:40	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	94	76¢	$71	0x120851…
05-09 23:16:09	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x59eebe…
05-08 15:33:31	XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x483a34…
05-08 15:02:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,985	67¢	$2,000	0x8e8205…
05-07 23:40:02	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x47b9a1…
05-07 23:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0x0834f1…
05-07 23:37:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	43	6¢	$3	0xe2ad76…
05-07 23:35:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0xfb7e79…
05-07 23:35:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xc714f4…
05-07 23:32:13	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	27	33¢	$9	0xf0c9cc…
05-07 23:31:40	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x7f1bc8…
05-07 21:57:21	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0x21f895…
05-07 21:57:07	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	38	27¢	$10	0x13ae32…
05-07 21:49:12	Solana Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0x631298…
05-07 21:38:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	SELL	78	39¢	$30	0x26eac1…
05-07 21:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x33dfe5…
05-07 21:17:34	XRP Up or Down - May 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x7809e2…
05-07 20:47:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0xc5dcdb…
05-07 20:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	42	92¢	$38	0x7df84f…
05-07 20:28:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xe3c4b8…
05-05 05:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	631	79¢	$500	0x5fa8af…
05-05 05:13:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	568	88¢	$500	0x150cff…
05-05 05:09:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	530	94¢	$500	0x3942db…
05-05 05:08:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	506	99¢	$500	0x180b3e…
05-05 05:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x3d99b0…
05-05 04:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x32f738…
05-05 04:38:42	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	513	98¢	$500	0xcb287a…
05-03 23:12:12	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	945	53¢	$500	0xca8967…
05-03 23:07:38	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	1,131	44¢	$500	0x169b35…
01-26 04:57:16	highest temperature in nyc on january 26 34 35f	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xf43aeb…
01-26 04:57:16	caroline ellison new boyfriend by january 31	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x9463dd…
01-26 04:57:16	nfl la sea 2026 01 25	Seahawks	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x6b338b…
01-26 04:57:16	highest temperature in seattle on january 26 42 43f	No	SELL	7	94¢	$7	0x665c97…
01-26 04:57:16	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x500f0b…
01-26 04:57:16	us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x184d9c…
01-26 04:57:14	will giannis antetokounmpo not be traded	Yes	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0xae26cc…
01-26 04:57:14	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0x96e1b2…
01-26 04:57:14	israel x iran ceasefire broken by june 30 2026 438 193	Yes	SELL	8	58¢	$5	0x89b39b…
01-26 04:57:14	will the government shutdown last 1 day or more 842	Yes	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0x54b5f2…
01-26 04:57:14	Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	9	51¢	$5	0x474600…
01-26 04:57:12	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0xf668fa…
01-26 04:57:12	will carlos alcaraz win the 2026 australian open	Yes	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0xf0e6e0…
01-26 04:57:12	will jos miguel aguilar berrocal win the 2026 costa rican presidential election	No	SELL	10	97¢	$9	0xe345dc…
01-26 04:57:12	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xc1415c…
01-26 04:57:12	will carlos alcaraz win the 2026 australian open	No	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0xae2a97…
01-26 04:57:12	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	10	96¢	$9	0x2ddd59…
01-26 04:57:12	will the us next strike iran on january 26 2026 et 241	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x2249e3…
01-26 04:57:12	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	Yes	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0x1b2c0c…
01-26 04:57:10	us strikes iran by january 25 2026 759 796 449	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0xed64f0…
01-26 04:57:10	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0xd1d75f…
01-26 04:57:10	highest temperature in atlanta on january 25 42forhigher	No	SELL	27	95¢	$26	0xcea6d9…
01-26 04:57:10	will the secret agent win best casting at the 98th academy awards	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0xce173d…
01-26 04:57:10	will mercy opening weekend box office be less than 8m	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xc9c9f2…
01-26 04:57:10	highest temperature in miami on january 26 77forbelow	No	SELL	24	97¢	$23	0xc6bc2b…
01-26 04:57:10	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	SELL	20	48¢	$9	0xb100dd…
01-26 04:57:10	israel x iran ceasefire broken by june 30 2026 438 193	No	SELL	14	41¢	$6	0xae7eaa…
01-26 04:57:10	israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x9f8bd6…
01-26 04:57:10	Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0x2f12df…
01-26 04:57:10	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x289b71…
01-26 04:57:10	Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	No	SELL	18	54¢	$10	0x0d1542…
01-26 04:57:08	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	51¢	$16	0xe19762…
01-26 04:57:08	will donald trump not announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve before february 2026	Yes	SELL	28	57¢	$16	0xd8944e…
01-26 04:57:08	Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	17¢	$4	0xc608ca…
01-26 04:57:08	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	SELL	25	85¢	$21	0x8f5541…
01-26 04:57:08	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	32	27¢	$9	0x49585d…
01-26 04:57:08	nothing ever happens january 581	No	SELL	24	79¢	$19	0x330a7f…
01-26 04:57:06	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	96¢	$33	0xd98e73…
01-26 04:57:06	tesla launches unsupervised full self driving fsd by march 31	Yes	SELL	45	51¢	$23	0xbca87e…
01-26 04:57:06	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	No	SELL	32	96¢	$30	0xafeee8…
01-26 04:57:06	us strikes iran by january 25 2026 759 796 449	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0xa9882d…
01-26 04:57:06	will donald trump not announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve before february 2026	No	SELL	37	41¢	$15	0x67c50f…
01-26 04:57:04	elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 500 519	Yes	SELL	48	1¢	$0	0xe92688…
01-26 04:57:04	will the los angeles rams win super bowl 2026	No	SELL	47	100¢	$47	0xdf0de6…
01-26 04:57:04	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	SELL	37	73¢	$27	0xba9d7d…
01-26 04:57:04	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	49	68¢	$33	0xb7ab36…
01-26 04:57:04	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	58¢	$32	0xb5400e…
01-26 04:57:04	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	No	SELL	108	92¢	$100	0xaa0bbb…
01-26 04:57:04	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	126	9¢	$11	0x870b63…
01-26 04:57:04	us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	Yes	SELL	128	2¢	$2	0x3baa02…
01-26 04:57:04	will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	Yes	SELL	141	67¢	$95	0x2b94bb…
01-26 04:57:04	Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	83	8¢	$7	0x29a745…
01-26 04:57:02	will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	Yes	SELL	195	83¢	$161	0xe8fa70…