Optimal-Dead — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$317

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

53.3%

Resolved

390

Trades

1,803

lifetime

Volume

$8.46K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$11

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 10-31 20:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 119 days

Categories

Other

92% 35% +$341

Politics

6% 75% +$47

Sports

1% 67% -$27

Crypto

1% 0% -$44

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		+127	$30	6¢	$8	-$22	05-11 11:58
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes		-2,000	-$12	0¢	$-3	+$9	07-27 07:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$206	160	160	+0	Yes	+$110	05-09 07:00
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 320 339	9	$198	835	835	+0	No	+$28	02-10 13:31
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 260 279	6	$175	196	160	+36	No	-$52	02-06 16:20
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 180 199	5	$163	601	601	+0	No	+$120	02-08 10:52
will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	2	$160	102	102	+0	Yes	+$40	03-16 20:32
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	3	$137	90	89	+2	No	+$19	04-10 13:51
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 200 219	4	$134	656	406	+250	No	+$72	02-09 10:37
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 300 319	40	$133	744	744	+0	No	-$27	02-10 12:48
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 360 379	16	$124	471	468	+3	Yes	+$67	03-13 13:23
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 280 299	21	$116	340	340	-0	No	+$5	03-19 13:51
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 380 399	13	$104	350	310	+39	No	+$14	03-24 12:11
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-08-27?	1	$100	119	0	+119	Yes	+$19	08-27 19:35
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 380 399	9	$99	266	266	+0	No	+$9	02-13 14:09
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 340 359	24	$97	410	350	+60	No	+$54	03-20 14:17
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	11	$88	192	199	-7	Yes	+$51	03-10 14:11
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	3	$85	99	99	+0	Yes	-$35	03-23 13:34
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 400 419	20	$70	345	324	+20	No	-$11	03-24 10:24
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	4	$65	100	100	+0	Yes	+$49	07-10 17:53
will ph win the most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	2	$65	35	35	+0	Yes	+$5	03-16 11:31
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-31?	2	$63	89	89	+0	Yes	+$15	10-31 20:13
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	14	$62	251	200	+51	No	+$40	03-06 07:56
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 280 299	8	$62	220	170	+50	Yes	+$64	03-17 05:43
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 360 379	9	$62	298	228	+70	Yes	+$61	02-13 07:09
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	3	$61	83	83	+0	No	-$59	03-23 13:35
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	4	$61	100	100	+0	Yes	+$49	05-26 13:42
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	2	$60	32	32	+0	No	$0	04-11 14:17
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 280 299	10	$59	390	370	+20	No	-$2	04-03 14:40
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	5	$56	200	200	+0	No	+$26	05-03 09:23
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 340 359	6	$55	242	220	+22	No	-$1	03-24 10:17
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	11	$55	500	500	+0	No	+$31	05-03 09:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 20:46:49	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	150	8¢	$12	0xfb8cf9…
10-31 20:13:04	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	SELL	89	44¢	$39	0xe7d5d9…
10-31 19:01:48	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	89	27¢	$24	0x27450d…
08-27 19:35:01	Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-08-27?	Yes	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x64e178…
08-26 11:51:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?	Yes	BUY	90	14¢	$12	0x2f317d…
08-26 11:50:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x606b30…
08-26 11:50:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 28?	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0xcbddb9…
08-22 09:40:25	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	917	3¢	$25	0xc8752d…
08-21 10:16:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x1b6834…
08-09 10:59:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 10:55 UTC	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xb65ecf…
08-09 10:54:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 10:50 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x9fabb4…
08-09 06:39:07	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x7788f2…
08-09 06:38:42	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 10?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x80b5cb…
08-09 06:38:01	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xd2ba86…
08-09 06:37:42	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x7ea34a…
08-09 06:37:16	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 9?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x367652…
08-09 06:36:57	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x660430…
08-09 06:36:39	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x6e3117…
08-09 06:35:43	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on August 9?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xcb1815…
08-09 06:35:09	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 9?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x718af3…
08-09 06:34:54	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x0a3de1…
08-08 07:03:21	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 8?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xc8223d…
08-08 07:02:51	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x80f9b8…
08-08 07:02:24	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 8?	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x51591b…
08-08 07:01:58	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 8?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x823804…
08-08 07:01:28	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x872909…
08-08 07:00:36	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xbb7950…
08-08 06:58:51	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 8?	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xb7927b…
08-08 06:57:57	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 8?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x20ed35…
08-07 06:44:30	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xac5f3d…
08-07 06:42:55	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x9449d1…
08-07 06:42:25	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 7?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x71afb2…
08-07 06:42:09	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x250d0a…
08-07 06:40:33	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 7?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xfb6248…
08-07 06:40:16	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 7?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x15a097…
08-07 06:39:54	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 7?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x74f7b1…
08-07 06:37:36	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x59a857…
08-07 06:37:36	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x42afa1…
08-07 06:37:15	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xc03f43…
08-07 06:36:48	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on August 7?	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x5dd7c9…
08-07 06:36:18	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xd0e762…
08-07 06:35:27	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x40e50b…
08-06 10:39:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 10:35 UTC	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xee8e64…
07-27 12:17:33	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 27?	Yes	SELL	11	26¢	$3	0xfac5fa…
07-27 12:17:15	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 27?	Yes	SELL	38	19¢	$7	0x8fd337…
07-27 08:38:57	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x8aa968…
07-27 08:38:55	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x4352fe…
07-27 08:37:54	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xf3e0c3…
07-27 08:35:42	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	23	68¢	$16	0x8aaea9…
07-27 08:33:39	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	11	67¢	$7	0x09c603…
07-27 07:20:52	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	62	77¢	$48	0x6ada3c…
07-27 07:16:00	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	74	43¢	$32	0x27a4ae…
07-27 07:15:51	Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2,000	1¢	$12	0x226d6a…
07-27 04:33:31	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0xff4e2d…
07-27 04:31:39	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xafd2b9…
07-26 10:06:22	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	22	74¢	$16	0x9e7cdd…
07-26 10:06:19	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	25	78¢	$20	0x229870…
07-26 07:22:40	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 26?	Yes	SELL	27	4¢	$1	0xba9931…
07-26 06:43:04	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	51	73¢	$37	0x65e6c4…
07-26 05:53:06	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0xd57801…
07-26 05:53:06	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x9a7f24…
07-26 05:53:04	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x89a1ae…
07-26 05:53:04	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x2a1497…
07-26 05:26:34	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	26	45¢	$12	0xff8282…
07-26 01:19:51	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xffe45e…
07-26 01:10:57	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xcc57b0…
07-25 13:06:33	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	85	2¢	$1	0x66dba3…
07-25 13:04:42	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x38e6ca…
07-25 13:04:42	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x1349a7…
07-25 06:33:12	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x0181f3…
07-25 06:31:19	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0x627dc0…
07-25 06:30:40	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x4b5052…
07-24 08:33:16	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 24?	Yes	SELL	108	1¢	$1	0xa128cc…
07-24 08:10:33	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	27	14¢	$4	0x787f76…
07-24 08:09:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	25	29¢	$7	0x1d3ae3…
07-24 08:08:06	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	26	34¢	$9	0x973abd…
07-24 07:07:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 24?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xb275ec…
07-24 07:04:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 24?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xc455f9…
07-24 07:03:19	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 24?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x0927b5…
07-23 16:48:51	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xf337de…
07-23 16:48:01	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x21ada4…
07-23 12:18:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0xe2ae9b…
07-23 12:15:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0x671814…
07-23 11:54:55	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x966d50…
07-23 11:53:15	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xf23ecb…
07-23 11:53:15	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x7cbe0b…
07-23 11:20:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x40504b…
07-23 11:16:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x7a6ec5…
07-23 11:16:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	58	7¢	$4	0x486986…
07-23 11:16:13	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x521672…
07-23 11:14:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x6aa74c…
07-23 10:31:51	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0xc416c6…
07-23 10:17:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x46b708…
07-23 10:08:21	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	87	6¢	$5	0x1a7df0…
07-23 09:51:15	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xdf49a9…
07-23 09:32:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x041f81…
07-23 05:14:22	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0xf91071…
07-23 05:13:58	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0xad7156…
07-16 10:32:59	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	128	8¢	$10	0x661eaf…
07-14 06:50:55	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	372	1¢	$4	0x7b8283…