Watchful-Plain — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$126

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.9%

Resolved

Trades

149

lifetime

Volume

$6.29K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$42

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 07-10 17:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Other

55% 69% -$241

Crypto

45% 71% +$151

Sports

1% 0% -$37

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-10).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	2	$1.2K	817	817	+0	Yes	+$412	05-12 16:54
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	1	$750	872	0	+872	No	-$750	05-12 18:25
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	2	$619	416	416	+0	Yes	+$212	05-11 16:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24?	2	$441	241	241	+0	No	-$2	05-23 22:51
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	2	$262	210	210	+0	Yes	+$157	05-09 18:42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	1	$211	964	0	+964	Yes	-$211	05-23 23:18
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	2	$157	81	81	+0	Up	+$4	05-21 07:10
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	2	$150	76	76	+0	Team Falcons	+$2	05-26 16:31
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26?	2	$142	74	74	+0	Yes	+$7	05-26 16:07
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 22?	1	$124	141	0	+141	Yes	+$17	05-22 11:52
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	3	$116	62	62	+0	Down	+$6	05-21 06:20
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 23?	1	$115	222	0	+222	Yes	+$107	05-22 20:30
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	2	$113	63	63	+0	Down	+$13	05-21 06:30
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	2	$110	61	61	+0	Down	+$10	05-21 06:45
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19?	2	$104	55	55	+0	Yes	+$5	05-19 18:12
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	2	$103	53	53	+0	Up	+$3	05-21 06:23
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	2	$102	53	53	+0	Down	+$2	05-21 06:40
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$100	580	0	+580	No	-$100	05-07 16:01
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	4	$88	45	45	+0	Up	+$2	05-18 07:05
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 21?	1	$88	125	0	+125	Yes	+$37	05-21 10:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	2	$83	43	43	+0	Up	+$3	05-18 16:35
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	1	$77	106	0	+106	Down	+$29	05-21 07:11
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	3	$76	39	39	+0	Up	+$0	05-18 07:35
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	1	$73	1,216	0	+1,216	Down	-$73	05-26 16:32
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	3	$65	77	0	+77	Up	+$12	05-21 06:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	2	$61	32	32	+0	Up	+$1	05-18 16:40
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 20?	1	$61	85	0	+85	Yes	+$25	05-20 10:38
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 19?	1	$54	62	0	+62	No	+$8	05-20 00:11
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	1	$51	159	0	+159	Yes	+$108	05-06 03:01
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	1	$50	57	0	+57	Up	-$50	05-21 06:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-10 17:42:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 11?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xe04eed…
07-10 10:06:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 10?	Yes	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xea2ac9…
07-07 13:14:20	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xf20b79…
07-03 00:57:59	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	3	91¢	$2	0xf682ac…
06-27 17:01:43	Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0x14d8c6…
06-23 05:02:25	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xf10b93…
06-23 04:59:35	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 04:55 UTC	Up	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0xb90557…
06-23 04:50:22	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 04:45 UTC	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa4214f…
06-23 04:49:59	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x480864…
06-23 04:33:10	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0x92311a…
06-23 04:30:13	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 04:25 UTC	Up	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x049d0d…
06-23 04:29:56	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 04:25 UTC	Up	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x2e989c…
05-26 16:32:35	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	1,216	6¢	$73	0xe09f25…
05-26 16:31:08	Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	Team Falcons	SELL	76	100¢	$76	0x856440…
05-26 16:19:36	Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	Team Falcons	BUY	76	97¢	$74	0x028a11…
05-26 16:07:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26?	Yes	SELL	74	100¢	$74	0x279d3a…
05-26 13:12:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	74	91¢	$68	0x41f330…
05-23 23:18:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	964	22¢	$211	0xb96821…
05-23 22:51:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24?	No	SELL	241	91¢	$220	0x31bc9e…
05-23 22:50:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	241	92¢	$221	0xb9d9ea…
05-22 20:30:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 23?	Yes	BUY	222	52¢	$115	0xfabeef…
05-22 20:07:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x0eaf65…
05-22 20:06:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x48e653…
05-22 11:52:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	141	88¢	$124	0x7f22aa…
05-21 10:21:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	125	70¢	$88	0x67f69f…
05-21 10:07:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xa8e5e8…
05-21 07:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xbe3947…
05-21 07:27:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xcc7069…
05-21 07:23:40	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xbcc2fa…
05-21 07:20:07	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb8b613…
05-21 07:19:20	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd65abc…
05-21 07:11:03	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	106	73¢	$77	0xc7bc4d…
05-21 07:10:08	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	81	99¢	$80	0xfdd31c…
05-21 07:06:07	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	81	95¢	$77	0xdeb537…
05-21 06:56:33	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x7e2ac0…
05-21 06:45:12	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	61	99¢	$60	0x7081e6…
05-21 06:41:21	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x0c7fee…
05-21 06:40:09	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0xe8e0d1…
05-21 06:38:09	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x587bcc…
05-21 06:33:23	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x778295…
05-21 06:31:42	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x91d61f…
05-21 06:30:56	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0xdfce4a…
05-21 06:30:11	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	63	99¢	$63	0x319914…
05-21 06:26:16	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x923c9e…
05-21 06:23:18	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	SELL	53	99¢	$53	0xa316d3…
05-21 06:21:22	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	53	93¢	$50	0xd93fa8…
05-21 06:20:23	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	SELL	62	99¢	$61	0x0e4c21…
05-21 06:19:20	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x719742…
05-21 06:18:17	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x8d434e…
05-20 10:38:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	85	71¢	$61	0xe4c3ed…
05-20 00:11:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 19?	No	BUY	62	87¢	$54	0x90d03e…
05-19 18:12:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19?	Yes	SELL	55	100¢	$54	0xb0cf9b…
05-19 12:30:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	55	91¢	$49	0x7301ce…
05-18 16:40:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	32	99¢	$31	0x81e52a…
05-18 16:37:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x62920b…
05-18 16:35:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	SELL	43	99¢	$43	0x356c12…
05-18 16:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	43	92¢	$40	0x03f7ae…
05-18 16:26:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x9f40eb…
05-18 08:08:32	Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x70d5c8…
05-18 08:08:20	Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x202afd…
05-18 08:05:11	Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x01192e…
05-18 08:04:17	Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa8e118…
05-18 08:03:52	Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x2ff49b…
05-18 07:58:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x8ca151…
05-18 07:58:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x28b9c8…
05-18 07:57:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xba6c43…
05-18 07:57:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x9644df…
05-18 07:57:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x8e17b7…
05-18 07:55:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x87fd4b…
05-18 07:54:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xcacfb0…
05-18 07:53:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x8fc414…
05-18 07:53:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x9ddfa9…
05-18 07:53:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xe391f1…
05-18 07:50:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x1898ff…
05-18 07:47:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x25fc49…
05-18 07:45:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x5cbd89…
05-18 07:43:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd83e65…
05-18 07:42:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x40e48e…
05-18 07:40:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x9be00c…
05-18 07:37:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x95b8ab…
05-18 07:35:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	SELL	39	99¢	$38	0x0edefb…
05-18 07:32:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0xf48731…
05-18 07:32:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x5783f7…
05-18 07:25:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x2ea0cc…
05-18 07:25:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x90a939…
05-18 07:24:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x0aee7e…
05-18 07:16:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x30ab13…
05-18 07:16:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x82bac7…
05-18 07:15:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x29c097…
05-18 07:13:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x967989…
05-18 07:09:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x184b95…
05-18 07:05:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0x559a8c…
05-18 07:04:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0xd45fa3…
05-18 07:03:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x713eaa…
05-18 07:01:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0xc538d9…
05-18 07:00:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa65a19…
05-18 06:56:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xe81bc2…
05-13 00:27:23	Sabres vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	50	73¢	$37	0x0c621b…
05-13 00:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x527219…
05-13 00:09:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x212984…