Watchful-Plain — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$61

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

34.5%

Resolved

Trades

127

lifetime

Volume

$2.51K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-12

last 06-23 04:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

81% 47% $-24

Other

17% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-37

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24?	1	$220	0	241	-241	open	—	05-23 22:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	1	$211	964	0	+964	open	—	05-23 23:18
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	2	$157	81	81	+0	open	—	05-21 07:10
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	2	$150	76	76	+0	open	—	05-26 16:31
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	3	$116	62	62	+0	open	—	05-21 06:20
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	2	$113	63	63	+0	open	—	05-21 06:30
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	2	$110	61	61	+0	open	—	05-21 06:45
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19?	2	$104	55	55	+0	open	—	05-19 18:12
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	2	$103	53	53	+0	open	—	05-21 06:23
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	2	$102	53	53	+0	open	—	05-21 06:40
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	4	$88	45	45	+0	open	—	05-18 07:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	2	$83	43	43	+0	open	—	05-18 16:35
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	1	$77	106	0	+106	open	—	05-21 07:11
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	3	$76	39	39	+0	open	—	05-18 07:35
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	1	$73	1,216	0	+1,216	open	—	05-26 16:32
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	3	$65	77	0	+77	open	—	05-21 06:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	2	$61	32	32	+0	open	—	05-18 16:40
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 19?	1	$54	62	0	+62	open	—	05-20 00:11
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	1	$50	57	0	+57	open	—	05-21 06:56
eth updown 5m 1782188700	2	$44	22	22	+0	open	—	06-23 04:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	1	$40	42	0	+42	open	—	05-18 16:26
Sabres vs. Canadiens	1	$37	50	0	+50	Sabres	$-37	05-13 00:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	6	$36	25	15	+10	Up	$-6	05-12 22:35
eth updown 5m 1782189000	1	$22	23	0	+23	open	—	06-23 04:33
eth updown 5m 1782190500	1	$22	23	0	+23	open	—	06-23 04:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	05-21 07:30
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	3	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-18 08:05
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 22?	2	$20	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	05-22 20:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	4	$19	10	10	+0	Up	+$1	05-12 22:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	4	$17	13	8	+5	Down	$-1	05-12 23:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-23 04:59:35	eth updown 5m 1782190500	Up	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0xb90557…
06-23 04:50:22	eth updown 5m 1782189900	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa4214f…
06-23 04:49:59	eth updown 5m 1782189900	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x480864…
06-23 04:33:10	eth updown 5m 1782189000	Down	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0x92311a…
06-23 04:30:13	eth updown 5m 1782188700	Up	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x049d0d…
06-23 04:29:56	eth updown 5m 1782188700	Up	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x2e989c…
05-26 16:32:35	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	1,216	6¢	$73	0xe09f25…
05-26 16:31:08	Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	Team Falcons	SELL	76	100¢	$76	0x856440…
05-26 16:19:36	Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	Team Falcons	BUY	76	97¢	$74	0x028a11…
05-23 23:18:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	964	22¢	$211	0xb96821…
05-23 22:51:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24?	No	SELL	241	91¢	$220	0x31bc9e…
05-22 20:07:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x0eaf65…
05-22 20:06:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x48e653…
05-21 10:07:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xa8e5e8…
05-21 07:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xbe3947…
05-21 07:27:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xcc7069…
05-21 07:23:40	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xbcc2fa…
05-21 07:20:07	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb8b613…
05-21 07:19:20	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd65abc…
05-21 07:11:03	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	106	73¢	$77	0xc7bc4d…
05-21 07:10:08	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	81	99¢	$80	0xfdd31c…
05-21 07:06:07	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	81	95¢	$77	0xdeb537…
05-21 06:56:33	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x7e2ac0…
05-21 06:45:12	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	61	99¢	$60	0x7081e6…
05-21 06:41:21	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x0c7fee…
05-21 06:40:09	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0xe8e0d1…
05-21 06:38:09	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x587bcc…
05-21 06:33:23	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x778295…
05-21 06:31:42	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x91d61f…
05-21 06:30:56	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0xdfce4a…
05-21 06:30:11	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	63	99¢	$63	0x319914…
05-21 06:26:16	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x923c9e…
05-21 06:23:18	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	SELL	53	99¢	$53	0xa316d3…
05-21 06:21:22	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	53	93¢	$50	0xd93fa8…
05-21 06:20:23	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	SELL	62	99¢	$61	0x0e4c21…
05-21 06:19:20	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x719742…
05-21 06:18:17	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x8d434e…
05-20 00:11:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 19?	No	BUY	62	87¢	$54	0x90d03e…
05-19 18:12:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19?	Yes	SELL	55	100¢	$54	0xb0cf9b…
05-19 12:30:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	55	91¢	$49	0x7301ce…
05-18 16:40:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	32	99¢	$31	0x81e52a…
05-18 16:37:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x62920b…
05-18 16:35:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	SELL	43	99¢	$43	0x356c12…
05-18 16:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	43	92¢	$40	0x03f7ae…
05-18 16:26:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x9f40eb…
05-18 08:08:32	Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x70d5c8…
05-18 08:08:20	Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x202afd…
05-18 08:05:11	Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x01192e…
05-18 08:04:17	Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa8e118…
05-18 08:03:52	Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x2ff49b…
05-18 07:58:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x8ca151…
05-18 07:58:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x28b9c8…
05-18 07:57:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xba6c43…
05-18 07:57:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x9644df…
05-18 07:57:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x8e17b7…
05-18 07:55:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x87fd4b…
05-18 07:54:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xcacfb0…
05-18 07:53:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x8fc414…
05-18 07:53:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x9ddfa9…
05-18 07:53:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xe391f1…
05-18 07:50:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x1898ff…
05-18 07:47:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x25fc49…
05-18 07:45:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x5cbd89…
05-18 07:43:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd83e65…
05-18 07:42:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x40e48e…
05-18 07:40:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x9be00c…
05-18 07:37:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x95b8ab…
05-18 07:35:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	SELL	39	99¢	$38	0x0edefb…
05-18 07:32:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0xf48731…
05-18 07:32:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x5783f7…
05-18 07:25:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x2ea0cc…
05-18 07:25:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x90a939…
05-18 07:24:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x0aee7e…
05-18 07:16:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x30ab13…
05-18 07:16:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x82bac7…
05-18 07:15:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x29c097…
05-18 07:13:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x967989…
05-18 07:09:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x184b95…
05-18 07:05:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0x559a8c…
05-18 07:04:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0xd45fa3…
05-18 07:03:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x713eaa…
05-18 07:01:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0xc538d9…
05-18 07:00:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa65a19…
05-18 06:56:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xe81bc2…
05-13 00:27:23	Sabres vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	50	73¢	$37	0x0c621b…
05-13 00:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x527219…
05-13 00:09:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x212984…
05-13 00:04:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xade793…
05-13 00:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x9cd0d8…
05-13 00:01:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0x82a234…
05-12 23:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x926919…
05-12 23:43:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xf634ea…
05-12 23:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0xdc28c9…
05-12 23:40:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xbb1ba7…
05-12 23:40:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x189ed5…
05-12 23:38:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x501320…
05-12 23:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf7c0c7…
05-12 23:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0xf55f7d…
05-12 22:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0x01bc1c…
05-12 22:58:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xb358d9…