Elementary-Mean — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.19K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$76

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 09-12 10:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Crypto

74% 93% -$1

Other

17% 90% -$1

Politics

10% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ethereum above 2400 on january 3	1	$103	103	+103	Yes	+$0	01-02 03:34
bitcoin above 90k on january 14	1	$103	103	+103	Yes	+$0	01-14 11:28
will the price of ethereum be between 2900 3000 on january 17	1	$103	103	+103	No	+$0	01-17 06:44
ethereum above 2800 on january 5	1	$103	103	+103	Yes	+$0	01-05 07:42
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	1	$102	102	+102	Yes	+$0	05-21 08:17
ethereum above 1600 on march 16	1	$102	102	+102	Yes	+$0	03-15 01:45
bitcoin above 68k on june 5 2026	1	$102	102	+102	No	+$0	06-05 09:31
will the price of bitcoin be between 64000 66000 on march 20	1	$102	102	+102	No	+$0	03-20 11:51
will the price of bitcoin be less than 60000 on march 9	1	$102	102	+102	No	+$0	03-09 06:58
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9?	1	$102	102	+102	No	+$0	05-09 09:15
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5?	1	$102	102	+102	Yes	+$0	05-05 09:07
ethereum above 2100 on march 17	1	$102	102	+102	Yes	+$0	03-17 11:50
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25?	1	$102	102	+102	No	+$0	05-25 08:10
bitcoin above 78k on march 12	1	$102	102	+102	No	+$0	03-11 09:40
will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 31	1	$101	101	+101	No	+$0	03-31 11:04
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$101	101	+101	No	+$0	01-31 06:47
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 340 359	1	$101	101	+101	No	+$0	03-02 07:33
ethereum above 1600 on april 6	1	$101	101	+101	Yes	+$0	04-05 09:43
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 180 199	1	$101	101	+101	No	+$0	03-23 13:05
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$101	101	+101	No	+$0	01-27 07:03
bitcoin above 74k on february 10	1	$101	101	+101	No	+$0	02-10 08:56
bitcoin above 74k on april 24	1	$101	101	+101	Yes	+$0	04-24 12:44
will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on april 16	1	$101	101	+101	No	+$0	04-16 07:24
will the price of bitcoin be between 58000 60000 on april 12	1	$101	101	+101	No	+$0	04-11 09:10
ethereum above 2800 on january 20	1	$101	101	+101	Yes	+$0	01-19 11:04
ethereum above 2500 on march 28	1	$101	101	+101	No	+$0	03-27 08:57
ethereum above 3300 on february 4	1	$101	101	+101	No	+$0	02-03 06:18
highest temperature in london on april 19 2026 11c	1	$101	101	+101	No	+$0	04-19 02:17
bitcoin above 76k on march 4	1	$101	101	+101	No	+$0	03-04 12:54
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9?	1	$100	100	+100	No	+$0	06-09 11:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-12 10:46:03	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x91fa0f…
09-12 10:44:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x62f9fd…
07-29 10:15:45	netanyahu out by july 31	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x77c276…
06-09 11:27:10	Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x16dc8c…
06-09 11:25:52	bitcoin above 66k on june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	1,050	0¢	$2	0x97720b…
06-05 09:31:25	bitcoin above 68k on june 5 2026	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xb499a0…
05-25 08:10:09	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x21de4d…
05-21 08:17:26	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	Yes	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x0e0eae…
05-14 08:15:42	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0x4bca23…
05-14 08:15:20	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 14?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9708bf…
05-14 08:15:07	Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 14?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1d4121…
05-14 08:14:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x82b553…
05-14 08:14:15	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May 14?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x433f9a…
05-14 08:13:59	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 14?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2c896c…
05-09 09:15:30	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x80bb56…
05-05 09:07:32	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x934248…
04-24 12:44:50	bitcoin above 74k on april 24	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x17037d…
04-19 02:17:20	highest temperature in london on april 19 2026 11c	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xc8746d…
04-16 07:24:30	will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on april 16	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x4871aa…
04-11 09:10:39	will the price of bitcoin be between 58000 60000 on april 12	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xf9cd21…
04-05 09:43:55	ethereum above 1600 on april 6	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x30620a…
03-31 11:04:43	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 31	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x2a1b9d…
03-27 08:57:11	ethereum above 2500 on march 28	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x0dc38b…
03-23 13:05:43	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 180 199	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x1aa7a8…
03-23 13:05:25	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 500 519	Yes	BUY	750	0¢	$2	0xc8d8b0…
03-20 11:51:29	will the price of bitcoin be between 64000 66000 on march 20	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xed8695…
03-17 11:50:21	ethereum above 2100 on march 17	Yes	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x1cc6a3…
03-15 01:45:59	ethereum above 1600 on march 16	Yes	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x36fc87…
03-11 09:40:49	bitcoin above 78k on march 12	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x577aef…
03-09 06:58:37	will the price of bitcoin be less than 60000 on march 9	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xd4598d…
03-04 12:54:05	bitcoin above 76k on march 4	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xf70a70…
03-02 07:33:15	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 340 359	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x1aef9d…
02-10 08:56:51	bitcoin above 74k on february 10	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x1962ad…
02-03 06:18:16	ethereum above 3300 on february 4	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x29bfe9…
01-31 06:47:16	russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x215626…
01-27 07:03:11	fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x6b60ee…
01-19 11:04:16	ethereum above 2800 on january 20	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x36f7fc…
01-19 11:03:34	bitcoin above 86k on january 19	No	BUY	1,100	0¢	$2	0xbeb37c…
01-17 06:44:26	will the price of ethereum be between 2900 3000 on january 17	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0x93eb77…
01-14 11:28:24	bitcoin above 90k on january 14	Yes	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0x4e7258…
01-05 07:42:51	ethereum above 2800 on january 5	Yes	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0x7c16d4…
01-02 03:34:57	ethereum above 2400 on january 3	Yes	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0xb343ec…