Realized P&L
+$6.99K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.79K
Hit rate
90.7%
Resolved
1,599
Trades
143,616
lifetime
Volume
$3.70M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$26
Open exposure
$287.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-02 09:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 188 days
Categories
Other
63% 84% +$7,236
Politics
29% 86% +$2,928
Sports
5% 88% +$764
Tech
3% 52% -$3,941
Crypto
0% 87% +$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 5854 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +27,749 $27,168 99¢ $27.3K +$179 10-31 22:38
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +27,449 $27,337 100¢ $27.3K -$11 10-31 22:38
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +27,449 $27,140 99¢ $27.3K +$158 10-31 22:38
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +27,449 $20,705 72¢ $19.9K -$805 10-31 22:38
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +11,519 $11,377 100¢ $11.5K +$125 09-15 12:27
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +11,519 $11,466 100¢ $11.5K +$36 09-15 12:27
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +11,519 $11,126 99¢ $11.5K +$330 09-15 12:27
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No +11,521 $10,249 99¢ $11.4K +$1,151 09-15 12:27
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +11,145 $11,114 100¢ $11.1K +$14 09-09 14:02
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +10,821 $10,788 100¢ $10.8K +$22 09-06 21:06
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +27,137 $7,458 30¢ $8.0K +$548 10-31 22:38
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +7,575 $7,504 100¢ $7.6K +$59 10-30 17:34
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +7,575 $7,541 100¢ $7.5K +$0 10-30 17:34
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +7,575 $7,073 99¢ $7.5K +$412 10-30 17:34
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +7,075 $7,042 100¢ $7.1K +$25 10-25 23:33
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +7,216 $7,147 98¢ $7.1K -$93 10-25 23:33
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +8,463 $7,046 73¢ $6.1K -$897 10-25 23:33
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +5,989 $5,724 98¢ $5.9K +$172 11-01 22:55
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +5,710 $5,681 98¢ $5.6K -$62 10-25 23:33
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? No +5,332 $5,283 99¢ $5.3K +$20 10-31 08:43
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? No +5,332 $5,264 99¢ $5.3K +$28 10-31 08:43
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? No +5,332 $5,230 98¢ $5.2K +$14 10-31 08:43
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +5,057 $5,041 100¢ $5.0K +$8 11-01 21:56
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +5,057 $5,036 100¢ $5.0K +$9 11-01 21:56
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +5,057 $5,027 100¢ $5.0K +$12 11-01 21:56
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +5,057 $4,980 99¢ $5.0K +$29 11-01 21:56
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +4,992 $4,973 100¢ $5.0K +$7 11-01 21:56
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +4,992 $4,839 99¢ $4.9K +$111 11-01 21:56
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +5,057 $4,614 95¢ $4.8K +$185 11-01 21:56
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +4,667 $4,658 100¢ $4.7K +$2 10-30 21:44