Cumbersome-Butler — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$31

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

49.6%

Resolved

Trades

1,079

lifetime

Volume

$34.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-10 15:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

51% 67% +$24

Crypto

24% 67% +$2

Politics

24% 100% +$4

Tech

1% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 116 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12?	8	$2.8K	1,485	1,445	+40	Down	$-47	05-12 20:10
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13?	10	$2.2K	1,679	1,679	+0	Down	$-14	05-13 20:54
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?	8	$1.6K	880	880	+0	Up	+$66	05-11 19:54
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	7	$1.2K	1,600	800	+800	No	+$5	05-08 21:01
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 20 million 836	2	$1.0K	512	504	+8	open	—	02-16 06:15
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	3	$994	605	434	+170	open	—	02-22 16:24
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	15	$979	919	918	+1	open	—	08-01 02:14
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?	2	$858	432	432	+0	No	+$4	05-11 02:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	3	$830	418	418	+0	No	+$4	05-09 03:30
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	2	$649	353	353	+0	open	—	06-22 17:12
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	1	$646	647	0	+647	open	—	02-03 20:49
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	2	$605	304	304	+0	open	—	04-25 00:08
will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	6	$539	332	332	+0	open	—	06-21 03:10
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	9	$521	558	557	+1	open	—	07-24 07:56
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?	2	$498	380	120	+260	open	—	02-16 21:03
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	6	$431	495	495	+0	open	—	06-01 21:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	2	$418	220	220	+0	open	—	06-07 04:15
will ethereum dip to 1400 june 1 7 2026	1	$415	416	0	+416	open	—	06-07 21:01
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	2	$400	201	201	+0	open	—	03-02 17:06
tyler robinson convicted of homicide	7	$394	400	399	+1	open	—	07-11 01:20
coin up or down on february 10 2026	3	$384	211	200	+11	open	—	02-10 19:57
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	6	$372	400	399	+1	open	—	07-15 15:48
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	4	$360	400	399	+1	open	—	07-21 06:48
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	2	$334	199	199	+0	open	—	03-15 19:30
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	2	$331	200	200	+0	open	—	08-10 00:12
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	3	$316	200	200	+0	open	—	08-06 16:28
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	8	$313	367	367	+0	Down	+$6	05-12 19:31
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	6	$310	200	200	+0	open	—	07-28 19:23
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	2	$307	186	186	+0	open	—	03-23 19:59
over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	3	$302	200	200	+0	open	—	07-17 09:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 15:53:27	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	SELL	185	63¢	$116	0x83455d…
08-10 15:49:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	SELL	15	63¢	$9	0x0cc675…
08-10 15:48:51	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0x57d260…
08-10 00:12:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	SELL	200	83¢	$165	0x4de44d…
08-10 00:06:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x976e06…
08-09 14:44:52	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	200	39¢	$78	0xa67693…
08-09 14:14:12	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	44¢	$88	0xdd0242…
08-07 10:09:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	190	54¢	$102	0xf0f12b…
08-07 10:09:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0x44af88…
08-07 10:09:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x7151d0…
08-07 09:43:19	foreign intervention in gaza by september 30	Yes	SELL	200	14¢	$28	0xfcf5a4…
08-07 07:04:22	foreign intervention in gaza by september 30	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x983f38…
08-06 16:28:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	53	78¢	$41	0xe1ff01…
08-06 16:25:47	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	146	78¢	$114	0x7b37b0…
08-06 16:24:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0xc20cd9…
08-01 02:14:41	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0x5e067f…
08-01 01:43:57	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xbcdc58…
07-28 19:23:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	Yes	SELL	154	74¢	$114	0x416125…
07-28 18:38:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	Yes	SELL	46	78¢	$36	0x9c1e78…
07-28 18:35:50	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	Yes	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0xb88fdb…
07-28 18:35:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	Yes	BUY	27	80¢	$22	0x833c98…
07-28 18:35:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x20a79b…
07-28 18:35:47	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	Yes	BUY	35	80¢	$28	0xffabe0…
07-25 06:33:33	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	SELL	200	19¢	$38	0x642c15…
07-25 06:32:37	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0x2068f4…
07-24 15:07:01	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	178	50¢	$89	0x53afa7…
07-24 15:06:51	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	22	50¢	$11	0x7c23fe…
07-24 15:06:28	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0xa18771…
07-24 10:30:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987	No	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0x1d2260…
07-24 10:30:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987	No	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x83444b…
07-24 10:30:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987	No	BUY	191	63¢	$120	0x129c2f…
07-24 07:56:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	SELL	200	55¢	$110	0x09cdc3…
07-24 07:56:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0x87514e…
07-24 04:02:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	SELL	200	44¢	$88	0x1d915d…
07-24 04:01:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0x3d9268…
07-23 17:40:06	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0x509322…
07-23 17:40:04	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0x467e21…
07-23 17:39:33	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0x87c288…
07-23 15:32:45	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	SELL	44	35¢	$16	0x134156…
07-23 15:32:19	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	BUY	44	37¢	$16	0xa0c860…
07-22 09:48:36	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	SELL	146	53¢	$77	0x1fec99…
07-22 09:48:13	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	BUY	146	54¢	$79	0x86c0ba…
07-21 06:48:12	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	200	16¢	$32	0xedc616…
07-21 06:47:18	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0xd22dfc…
07-21 04:07:19	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	34	34¢	$12	0xe20857…
07-21 04:07:19	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	44	34¢	$15	0x0390e3…
07-21 04:07:06	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	121	34¢	$41	0xa01836…
07-21 04:06:54	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	0	36¢	$0	0x6227b8…
07-21 04:06:37	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	185	37¢	$68	0x105d3f…
07-21 04:06:31	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0x595077…
07-18 19:53:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	SELL	107	37¢	$40	0x5beefd…
07-18 19:22:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	SELL	50	39¢	$20	0x420ab1…
07-18 19:21:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	110	39¢	$43	0x079cdb…
07-18 19:21:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	46	41¢	$19	0xc322bc…
07-18 19:21:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x078664…
07-18 12:48:28	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0xd152de…
07-18 12:47:54	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x1b142e…
07-18 10:34:54	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	SELL	200	24¢	$48	0xa1db9d…
07-18 10:34:19	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x6602de…
07-17 09:06:19	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	SELL	197	75¢	$148	0x6f160f…
07-17 08:52:45	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0xdeb045…
07-17 08:51:48	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0x282a35…
07-16 04:21:20	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	200	63¢	$126	0x479e7c…
07-16 04:20:53	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x4b06ee…
07-15 15:48:31	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	SELL	195	24¢	$47	0xf712ba…
07-15 15:18:14	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xe970d1…
07-15 14:47:47	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0x76f20b…
07-15 14:06:08	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	SELL	200	62¢	$124	0x0ac89c…
07-15 14:02:32	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$2	0x3810c1…
07-15 14:02:31	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	198	65¢	$128	0xfb008e…
07-15 13:07:08	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	45¢	$90	0xfa568c…
07-15 13:06:43	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	46¢	$92	0x571575…
07-12 03:28:52	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xf7fad0…
07-12 03:27:31	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	41¢	$16	0xe2d4fd…
07-12 03:26:47	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	40¢	$18	0x93ff35…
07-11 01:20:04	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	SELL	31	44¢	$14	0x453e40…
07-11 01:20:02	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	SELL	169	44¢	$74	0xe52eb0…
07-11 01:19:28	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0x5397a1…
07-10 23:51:05	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	119	48¢	$57	0x0d989c…
07-10 23:50:41	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	119	49¢	$58	0x3b58bc…
07-09 22:56:23	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	40	53¢	$21	0xf63c7a…
07-09 22:50:19	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	1	53¢	$0	0x9a10da…
07-09 22:49:59	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	159	53¢	$84	0x10c4e2…
07-09 22:46:53	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x33c1ca…
06-29 15:49:23	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x26fcc0…
06-22 17:12:46	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	SELL	353	99¢	$349	0x15e667…
06-21 03:10:13	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	263	97¢	$255	0xf2a6a0…
06-21 01:39:40	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	64	97¢	$62	0xc02a5d…
06-21 00:05:58	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xa5b7c2…
06-20 22:54:11	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x5197e4…
06-16 08:13:48	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	353	85¢	$300	0x0ddc77…
06-15 21:52:18	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	2	97¢	$1	0xb4683b…
06-08 17:18:07	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	SELL	167	52¢	$87	0x1fc134…
06-07 21:01:13	will ethereum dip to 1400 june 1 7 2026	No	BUY	416	100¢	$415	0x551f1d…
06-07 04:15:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	220	99¢	$218	0xcd3fde…
06-05 18:52:18	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	332	65¢	$217	0xeb2758…
06-05 18:49:19	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	198	98¢	$194	0x34ac65…
06-04 18:03:48	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x02dab1…
06-04 18:01:19	will bitcoin dip to 60k june 1 7 2026	No	BUY	129	77¢	$100	0xd20c31…
06-02 21:35:02	O/U 1.5 Rounds	Over	BUY	93	27¢	$25	0x566db6…