Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$27

Hit rate

53.2%

Resolved

Trades

348

lifetime

Volume

$537.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.55K

Open exposure

$70

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-03 22:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Politics

49% 44% -$2,771

Other

45% 70% +$1,507

Crypto

5% 77% -$19,650

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes		-300	-$43	24¢	$-70	-$27	10-10 14:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$110.9K	64,753	64,753	+0	No	-$3,354	05-09 02:54
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	6	$83.7K	45,834	40,608	+5,225	No	-$571	05-18 02:08
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$59.4K	30,000	30,000	+0	No	+$189	04-24 18:36
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$50.2K	54,000	0	+54,000	Yes	+$3,780	01-08 19:32
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$49.1K	50,000	0	+50,000	No	+$854	01-30 05:59
will trump visit china by march 31	60	$41.9K	42,000	0	+42,000	No	+$84	03-27 22:00
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	55	$39.7K	43,160	0	+43,160	Yes	+$3,453	05-11 00:27
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	25	$27.5K	33,443	12,717	+20,726	No	-$19,979	06-01 13:33
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	7	$19.8K	20,398	22,470	-2,072	No	-$1,719	10-10 14:15
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	9	$16.3K	16,810	242	+16,568	Yes	+$514	05-25 04:29
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	6	$11.1K	5,686	5,686	+0	No	+$216	05-11 13:23
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	28	$6.3K	3,216	3,216	+0	Yes	+$71	05-11 13:23
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	15	$4.1K	10,724	0	+10,724	No	-$4,072	10-26 21:22
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	3	$2.9K	8,363	8,363	+0	open	—	09-15 18:36
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	6	$2.3K	1,200	1,200	+0	No	+$19	03-30 02:14
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$2.0K	2,597	0	+2,597	Yes	+$597	04-10 23:25
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	1	$1.6K	1,652	0	+1,652	No	+$56	04-09 15:15
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	4	$1.4K	2,724	0	+2,724	No	-$1,362	11-03 22:19
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	19	$1.2K	100,000	100,000	+0	No	-$996	02-03 19:48
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$1.2K	0	19,669	-19,669	No	+$1,180	01-08 19:31
will tisza win at least 90 seats	4	$1.1K	1,308	0	+1,308	Yes	+$202	04-11 00:24
will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	3	$593	4,363	4,363	+0	Yes	-$507	03-08 05:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-18 23:30 UTC	4	$565	579	572	+7	Down	+$180	01-18 23:42
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	2	$369	300	300	+0	Yes	-$9	04-11 01:19
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$360	2,000	0	+2,000	Yes	-$360	02-10 21:40
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$290	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$710	02-03 19:51
bitcoin up or down january 18 5pm et	2	$281	200	200	+0	Up	+$21	01-18 22:44
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-18 23:30 UTC	3	$260	288	284	+4	Up	+$60	01-18 23:42
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	7	$220	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	-$200	03-01 01:35
mtb quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 15 2026 4	3	$206	296	0	+296	Yes	+$89	04-14 20:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 22:19:40	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0x8ac20f…
11-03 22:19:40	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	560	50¢	$280	0x037507…
11-03 22:17:04	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd78c0e…
11-03 22:13:51	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,153	50¢	$1,077	0xedb43f…
10-26 21:22:48	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	41¢	$11	0xb5ecbf…
10-26 21:22:47	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,355	41¢	$556	0x3d57d0…
10-26 21:22:24	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	41¢	$31	0xdbe223…
10-26 21:22:14	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	41¢	$62	0xcef501…
10-26 20:11:54	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x62ccaf…
10-26 19:59:42	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x1da79c…
10-26 19:59:00	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xbc3b64…
10-26 19:59:00	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x53f0fd…
10-26 19:58:11	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	41¢	$21	0x4f12d1…
10-26 19:57:59	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	226	41¢	$93	0x9e5646…
10-26 19:57:51	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x93b354…
10-10 14:15:37	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	16,403	37¢	$6,069	0x50599e…
10-10 14:15:16	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	300	14¢	$43	0x12ab0f…
10-02 18:07:18	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,224	41¢	$912	0x397471…
09-15 18:36:12	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,181	6¢	$251	0x3854db…
09-15 18:10:10	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,181	14¢	$602	0xec97f0…
08-19 16:48:46	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8,363	24¢	$2,000	0xee659b…
08-19 16:43:46	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	6,067	49¢	$2,973	0x623e41…
08-14 12:36:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 12:35 UTC	Down	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x23017c…
08-14 12:34:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 12:30 UTC	Down	SELL	29	94¢	$27	0xd0d97a…
08-14 12:31:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xd6b309…
08-14 12:31:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x7057b2…
07-08 13:30:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	89	28¢	$25	0xcd3801…
07-08 13:27:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 13:25 UTC	Up	SELL	192	14¢	$27	0x9e1fe3…
07-08 13:26:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 13:25 UTC	Up	BUY	192	13¢	$25	0x93a62a…
07-08 05:28:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:25 UTC	Up	SELL	53	62¢	$33	0xeeece9…
07-08 05:28:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:25 UTC	Up	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0xe722a9…
07-08 05:27:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:25 UTC	Down	SELL	89	67¢	$60	0x74d077…
07-08 05:26:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:25 UTC	Down	BUY	89	28¢	$25	0x434569…
07-08 05:22:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:20 UTC	Down	SELL	61	76¢	$46	0x89dd24…
07-08 05:21:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:20 UTC	Down	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0xaec8b1…
07-08 05:19:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x1b3d31…
07-08 05:19:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:15 UTC	Down	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0x254501…
07-08 05:18:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:15 UTC	Down	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0x98a9f0…
07-08 05:17:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:15 UTC	Down	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x5a0ba6…
07-08 05:13:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 05:10 UTC	Down	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x393833…
06-19 14:22:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 14:20 UTC	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x0619bd…
06-01 13:33:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7,137	70¢	$5,000	0x3f91af…
06-01 13:07:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13,590	74¢	$10,000	0x309848…
06-01 12:54:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10,403	22¢	$2,263	0x1d13e3…
05-31 17:51:47	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,000	36¢	$1,080	0x785055…
05-31 16:46:39	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xa7c299…
05-28 03:33:30	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	14,849	53¢	$7,870	0xdba40e…
05-25 19:58:24	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5,000	52¢	$2,600	0x22978d…
05-25 04:29:37	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	872	97¢	$842	0x798330…
05-25 04:29:12	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	5,166	97¢	$5,000	0x3c515c…
05-25 03:08:20	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	10,326	97¢	$10,000	0xa1931d…
05-25 03:06:36	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x4fecc7…
05-25 03:06:14	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x1dde8f…
05-25 03:04:43	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0xf7e8a5…
05-25 03:01:21	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	167	96¢	$160	0x7ca44e…
05-18 02:08:37	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	17,692	95¢	$16,833	0x5b8443…
05-18 02:08:36	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	22,917	96¢	$22,096	0xd480a9…
05-15 13:34:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x30c9a0…
05-15 13:33:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0x6f2b1d…
05-15 13:30:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0x7ba4e8…
05-15 13:30:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x9f84d5…
05-15 13:29:14	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	54	28¢	$15	0x860d54…
05-15 13:27:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0xb4a137…
05-15 13:23:33	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	505	28¢	$141	0x3e0c40…
05-15 04:26:16	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	39,000	98¢	$38,064	0x668bf1…
05-15 04:04:06	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1,975	98¢	$1,926	0xb4ed84…
05-15 04:03:42	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	4,500	98¢	$4,388	0xbfb4da…
05-15 04:03:03	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	358	97¢	$349	0x1242fc…
05-11 17:48:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	294	64¢	$188	0xcf9afa…
05-11 17:47:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	65¢	$2	0x8c9c32…
05-11 17:47:19	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	65¢	$6	0x213d3a…
05-11 17:47:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,008	65¢	$1,305	0x846a36…
05-11 14:12:27	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	963	70¢	$674	0xe4b137…
05-11 14:11:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$0	0x260ec8…
05-11 14:10:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xa65641…
05-11 14:10:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xecbad8…
05-11 14:07:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x85f496…
05-11 14:07:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x04f3d0…
05-11 14:06:14	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xd3897a…
05-11 13:30:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8,000	71¢	$5,680	0x965715…
05-11 13:29:56	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,228	71¢	$872	0x1d72e6…
05-11 13:26:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,471	70¢	$1,030	0x4ca934…
05-11 13:25:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	431	69¢	$297	0x0ce477…
05-11 13:23:24	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3,216	100¢	$3,206	0x42a118…
05-11 13:23:06	Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	No	SELL	5,686	100¢	$5,674	0x518092…
05-11 00:27:55	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	3,044	92¢	$2,800	0x33c3e2…
05-09 14:01:48	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc11b38…
05-09 07:45:47	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc014da…
05-09 05:34:34	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0xd0799d…
05-09 05:31:48	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	4,833	92¢	$4,446	0x688766…
05-09 05:30:41	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	62	92¢	$58	0xb3cee7…
05-09 05:27:11	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	38	92¢	$34	0x1363fe…
05-09 05:26:33	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0xb78330…
05-09 05:26:33	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	3,733	92¢	$3,435	0xa78ef0…
05-09 05:26:33	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x3890e6…
05-09 05:22:54	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	62	92¢	$58	0x536be5…
05-09 05:21:58	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0xdd1057…
05-09 05:21:35	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	62	92¢	$58	0x613981…
05-09 05:21:25	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x62aec2…
05-09 05:19:41	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x7e590b…