Realized P&L
+$16.1K
Unrealized P&L
-$98
Hit rate
75.5%
Resolved
494
Trades
5,301
lifetime
Volume
$193.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$37
Open exposure
$12.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 10-26 15:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 124 days
Categories
Other
53% 61% +$6,553
Politics
38% 66% +$7,523
Crypto
6% 70% +$1,098
Tech
2% 64% +$923
Sports
1% 69% +$35
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
78 active days in 12wk • peak 102 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +1,936 $1,442 84¢ $1.6K +$175 10-08 09:21
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -1,693 -$1,321 82¢ $-1383 -$62 07-03 07:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? Yes +1,759 $934 52¢ $924 -$10 09-10 09:15
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +812 $757 98¢ $796 +$39 08-20 00:31
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +1,067 $870 66¢ $705 -$164 08-05 05:57
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -570 -$531 98¢ $-556 -$25 05-14 11:29
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? No +525 $473 95¢ $498 +$26 07-07 12:31
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? No +524 $395 94¢ $492 +$97 09-18 14:35
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No -484 -$189 92¢ $-445 -$256 05-02 07:07
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes +622 $405 71¢ $442 +$37 09-28 09:39
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? No +524 $323 84¢ $438 +$115 05-28 06:19
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +400 $368 97¢ $386 +$18 09-06 12:38
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes +452 $267 72¢ $326 +$58 09-08 15:37
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +855 $260 34¢ $290 +$30 09-16 22:42
Trump out as President before 2027? No +300 $261 96¢ $288 +$27 05-01 16:19
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +1,684 $640 16¢ $269 -$370 10-09 03:23
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +704 $210 36¢ $257 +$46 10-24 17:51
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +200 $176 98¢ $196 +$20 07-03 06:43
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 No +200 $178 97¢ $195 +$17 07-08 20:37
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No -200 -$174 90¢ $-180 -$6 09-05 09:12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +200 $140 86¢ $173 +$33 05-15 15:35
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +916 $403 18¢ $168 -$235 09-21 05:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? Yes +319 $161 50¢ $158 -$4 10-22 01:04
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes +500 $95 31¢ $155 +$60 10-08 21:58
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes +181 $126 82¢ $148 +$22 10-02 09:57
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes +1,346 -$186 9¢ $115 +$301 10-24 15:41
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? No +100 $49 98¢ $98 +$50 10-18 15:04
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Yes +1,630 $333 6¢ $98 -$235 08-20 14:58
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? No +97 $54 100¢ $96 +$43 04-29 19:35
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No +106 $33 85¢ $90 +$57 07-12 08:30