Puzzled-Caffeine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.46K

Unrealized P&L

-$194

Hit rate

72.9%

Resolved

304

Trades

2,877

lifetime

Volume

$17.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$359

8 positions

First seen

2026-02-06

last 10-12 05:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 104 days

Categories

Politics

86% 69% +$1,401

Other

14% 45% +$56

Sports

0% 100% +$2

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+1,116	$301	19¢	$215	-$86	08-06 09:20
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+94	$63	72¢	$67	+$4	10-12 05:42
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	+86	$30	42¢	$36	+$6	10-08 01:00
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	+114	$56	20¢	$22	-$34	09-08 05:38
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+42	$10	29¢	$12	+$1	10-10 17:10
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	+29	$11	18¢	$5	-$6	10-07 20:40
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+33	$10	1¢	$0	-$9	10-01 17:33
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+261	$71	0¢	$0	-$70	10-08 18:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	50	$936	620	620	+0	No	+$242	06-19 23:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	100	$713	875	1,016	-141	Yes	+$48	03-01 07:25
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	112	$603	668	636	+32	Yes	-$4	02-28 08:07
will iran strike israel on march 10	100	$545	1,397	4,549	-3,152	Yes	+$396	03-12 15:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	23	$514	397	397	+0	Yes	+$135	06-14 23:24
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	73	$409	407	385	+22	Yes	+$1	04-03 23:30
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	92	$376	653	595	+58	Yes	+$78	03-05 19:35
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	68	$374	267	284	-17	Yes	+$38	04-07 22:33
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	63	$350	423	274	+148	No	-$176	03-08 18:13
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	20	$328	180	180	+0	No	+$11	10-10 07:04
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	48	$301	1,116	0	+1,116	open	—	08-06 09:20
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	32	$301	317	341	-24	Yes	+$37	04-12 04:57
will israel or the us target tehran 812	16	$294	222	259	-37	Yes	+$180	02-28 06:58
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	43	$247	135	135	+0	No	+$3	02-24 09:41
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	24	$246	380	0	+380	Yes	+$134	06-14 22:46
netanyahu out by march 31 854	33	$228	119	119	+0	No	+$7	03-21 08:20
epl liv mac 2026 02 08 mac	8	$224	242	242	+0	Yes	+$205	02-08 18:21
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	31	$202	118	118	+0	No	-$3	03-02 18:49
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	26	$196	192	98	+94	open	—	10-12 05:42
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	11	$193	104	104	+0	No	+$12	03-08 21:16
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	29	$191	199	216	-17	No	-$8	04-23 06:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	86	$187	176	176	+0	Yes	+$15	03-01 05:27
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	61	$187	202	10	+192	No	+$22	03-02 16:34
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	26	$184	164	128	+35	No	-$2	03-09 18:16
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	20	$179	200	185	+15	Yes	+$16	03-08 21:08
will israel strike gaza on february 9 2026	49	$174	144	102	+42	Yes	+$31	02-10 11:24
iran strike on israel by february 28	47	$169	1,175	907	+268	Yes	+$36	02-28 21:13
will iran strike israel on march 6	14	$164	110	88	+22	No	+$23	03-10 01:16
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	73	$154	435	223	+212	No	-$24	03-26 21:01
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	30	$149	558	95	+463	Yes	-$2	03-01 12:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 05:42:45	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0xfb684a…
10-12 04:38:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	4	68¢	$3	0x441214…
10-12 04:27:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2	68¢	$2	0xf07499…
10-12 04:05:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	28	68¢	$19	0x8b840b…
10-12 03:14:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0xba329c…
10-12 03:14:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0xa0603c…
10-12 03:14:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	40	68¢	$27	0xb7c7d0…
10-12 01:19:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	22	68¢	$15	0x645692…
10-11 12:26:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	81	3¢	$3	0x7383fd…
10-10 19:36:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	46	5¢	$2	0xeaf40b…
10-10 17:10:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	42	25¢	$10	0x92a1ca…
10-10 17:09:49	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	49	42¢	$21	0xee3190…
10-10 17:09:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	362	12¢	$43	0xb89b54…
10-10 07:04:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	180	94¢	$169	0x710bb7…
10-08 22:42:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x050c00…
10-08 22:23:08	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x85a2f3…
10-08 22:23:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xd6ae2a…
10-08 21:36:08	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x82a72e…
10-08 20:50:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xe1a331…
10-08 20:36:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0x945eb5…
10-08 20:36:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x315f49…
10-08 19:25:09	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	167	7¢	$12	0xcec269…
10-08 18:55:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	48	23¢	$11	0xa4c278…
10-08 18:33:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	56	19¢	$10	0x16579b…
10-08 18:33:00	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	BUY	24	43¢	$10	0x0261fb…
10-08 16:22:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	68	5¢	$3	0xbd29db…
10-08 01:00:56	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x281e11…
10-07 23:31:26	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xb2f117…
10-07 23:15:49	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	7	35¢	$3	0xf4701d…
10-07 22:21:25	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$3	0x1f0723…
10-07 21:48:09	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xb494db…
10-07 21:39:55	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x5e8950…
10-07 21:35:07	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x828b47…
10-07 21:26:25	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xfee38f…
10-07 21:22:45	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x371d4d…
10-07 21:19:26	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x9d3942…
10-07 21:11:52	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xad4748…
10-07 21:08:16	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x13447a…
10-07 20:40:45	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	29	39¢	$11	0xbb6857…
10-07 20:05:25	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x5d7af3…
10-07 18:08:24	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0xd8f080…
10-07 18:02:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x2ed8a7…
10-07 12:58:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	141	7¢	$10	0x8e0ff5…
10-07 12:58:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	26	7¢	$2	0xc35a8a…
10-06 21:46:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0x987802…
10-06 21:36:35	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0xb510da…
10-06 20:35:32	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x28a00c…
10-06 20:34:38	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0x0993c5…
10-06 18:16:53	Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe047d0…
10-06 16:22:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x124e80…
10-06 15:57:32	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x2b44de…
10-06 15:56:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xf3ddab…
10-06 15:55:32	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	88¢	$10	0xe105d6…
10-05 12:14:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	88¢	$10	0xfb4dea…
10-05 12:02:16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	88¢	$10	0x61a7ac…
10-05 11:57:05	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	12	88¢	$10	0xdd6f5b…
10-05 09:42:02	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x710a8b…
10-05 08:57:11	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0xc5b52f…
10-05 08:48:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	19	17¢	$3	0x93727b…
10-05 08:47:44	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	28	28¢	$8	0xed74f5…
10-05 07:56:29	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xf8bb65…
10-05 07:42:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	37	28¢	$10	0x8d163c…
10-05 06:33:04	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	32	17¢	$5	0x10856b…
10-05 06:16:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0xa6e87f…
10-05 04:42:32	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0x06970b…
10-05 04:42:31	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	17	28¢	$5	0x3040a1…
10-05 04:42:29	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	17	28¢	$5	0xc4e73f…
10-05 04:38:16	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	9	28¢	$3	0x16c2e5…
10-05 03:08:29	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x931c24…
10-05 02:34:25	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	62	17¢	$11	0x6773d1…
10-05 01:22:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	23	28¢	$7	0xea3227…
10-05 00:30:58	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0x7396ce…
10-05 00:30:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	15	28¢	$4	0x313495…
10-05 00:30:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	9	28¢	$3	0xd0656e…
10-05 00:28:31	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x17f2a6…
10-05 00:01:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0xfa1c9f…
10-04 20:47:20	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x0ce1fb…
10-04 20:26:43	Will Republic of Ireland vs. Israel end in a draw?	No	BUY	34	28¢	$10	0x5a6ae0…
10-04 20:26:43	Will Republic of Ireland vs. Israel end in a draw?	No	BUY	26	30¢	$8	0x134e3b…
10-04 20:25:53	Will Republic of Ireland vs. Israel end in a draw?	No	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xa4c6d4…
10-04 20:09:04	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x4b90f0…
10-04 20:07:01	Will Israel win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x5b4a22…
10-04 20:05:41	Will Israel win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x31e088…
10-04 19:54:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x5b342e…
10-04 19:40:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	62	17¢	$11	0xdb44ad…
10-04 19:00:52	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	37	28¢	$10	0x7f8192…
10-04 18:56:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x6634e8…
10-04 18:56:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	11	17¢	$2	0x65385c…
10-04 18:54:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	36	17¢	$6	0xc077ee…
10-04 18:49:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	36	17¢	$6	0x9c71fd…
10-04 18:48:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	62	17¢	$11	0x0a3fe3…
10-04 16:48:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x820c69…
10-04 16:45:04	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x364aba…
10-04 16:31:55	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xdec080…
10-04 11:24:13	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	12	63¢	$7	0x4ac16e…
10-04 06:11:22	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x57d400…
10-02 07:12:12	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	70	13¢	$9	0xd8db1e…
10-01 18:22:42	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x180abf…
10-01 17:47:12	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xa711b0…
10-01 17:33:05	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xacb5d8…