Unkempt-Ladybug — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$119

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

46.8%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

221

5,831 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$955

$38.7K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-03

last 11-02 01:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 147 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 68% +$811

Other

1% 33% -$77

Politics

1% 28% -$44

Tech

0% 25% -$1

Sports

0% 56% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will EH Bildu win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No		+3	$2	71¢	$2	$0	11-02 01:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	11	$112	106	106	+0	Yes	+$1	08-12 04:10
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	6	$68	60	60	+0	No	+$0	08-12 03:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-04 07:00 UTC	6	$64	92	0	+92	Up	-$64	04-04 07:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 10:30 UTC	2	$50	83	0	+83	Up	-$50	03-30 10:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-29 18:00 UTC	2	$50	73	0	+73	Up	+$23	03-29 18:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 04:30 UTC	2	$50	74	0	+74	Down	+$24	03-31 04:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 08:00 UTC	1	$50	66	0	+66	Down	-$50	03-31 08:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 01:30 UTC	5	$49	76	0	+76	Up	+$27	03-30 01:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 09:30 UTC	1	$49	76	0	+76	Up	-$49	03-30 09:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 02:00 UTC	7	$49	76	0	+76	Up	-$49	04-01 02:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 11:00 UTC	1	$49	64	0	+64	Up	-$49	04-01 11:13
Will Aly Richards win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?	7	$49	79	20	+59	No	-$9	08-12 03:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 04:45 UTC	1	$49	76	0	+76	Down	+$27	03-31 04:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 09:00 UTC	1	$48	69	0	+69	Down	+$21	03-30 09:11
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-10 04:30 UTC	4	$48	30	30	+0	Down	+$9	04-10 04:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-10 03:15 UTC	9	$48	30	29	+1	Down	+$9	04-10 03:29
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-09 11:00 UTC	4	$47	30	29	+1	Down	+$9	04-09 11:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 19:00 UTC	1	$47	76	0	+76	Up	+$29	03-31 19:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 07:30 UTC	1	$47	69	0	+69	Down	+$22	04-01 07:42
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-09 11:45 UTC	7	$47	28	28	+0	Down	+$7	04-09 11:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 05:00 UTC	1	$46	72	0	+72	Up	+$26	03-30 05:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-10 05:30 UTC	4	$46	30	28	+2	Down	+$10	04-10 05:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 07:30 UTC	1	$46	66	0	+66	Up	+$20	03-31 07:40
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-09 12:15 UTC	6	$45	28	27	+1	Down	+$8	04-09 12:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 11:00 UTC	1	$45	68	0	+68	Up	-$45	03-31 11:11
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-10 00:30 UTC	2	$45	29	27	+2	Up	+$9	04-10 00:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 09:15 UTC	1	$44	61	0	+61	Down	+$17	03-30 09:25
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-09 11:30 UTC	4	$44	27	25	+2	Up	+$7	04-09 11:44
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-10 00:45 UTC	3	$44	27	25	+2	Up	+$7	04-10 00:58
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-10 00:00 UTC	2	$43	27	25	+2	Down	+$7	04-10 00:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 01:25:19	Will EH Bildu win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	8	43¢	$3	0x742412…
11-02 01:22:27	Will EH Bildu win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0xab855d…
11-01 05:40:21	Will EH Bildu win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x7a4980…
11-01 05:04:58	Will EH Bildu win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x4a20b0…
10-31 17:06:22	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x5eae70…
10-31 16:08:07	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xc6a939…
10-31 12:16:22	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	7	37¢	$2	0x06d6dc…
10-31 11:09:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xf10172…
10-31 11:09:39	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xbb7c8b…
10-31 10:46:22	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the June meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x487d10…
10-30 15:50:46	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the June meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x56b408…
10-25 14:15:32	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0xc3efac…
10-25 14:15:27	Will Kate Scott attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x5e3350…
10-25 14:15:23	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0x21a755…
10-25 14:15:20	Will Fabián Ruiz attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x44f762…
10-25 14:15:17	ChatGPT Outage by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x9cf4ad…
10-25 14:15:12	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0xba65e1…
10-25 14:15:09	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x19cd35…
10-25 10:32:24	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x985bf2…
10-25 09:22:54	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x97e7f4…
10-25 08:29:23	Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 song this week?	No	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xbbf46b…
10-25 08:29:23	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between December 7 and December 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	11¢	$1	0xb54692…
10-25 08:29:23	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x14eaa2…
10-25 08:29:21	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in September?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xbe80dd…
10-25 08:18:08	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x35e736…
10-25 08:01:20	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x6aae3b…
10-25 07:47:09	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x7c8421…
10-25 06:59:54	will the white house call a full lid by 630 pm on october 28 2026	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x36e574…
10-25 06:56:59	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xa784cc…
10-25 06:55:20	will the white house call a full lid by 630 pm on october 28 2026	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x750cee…
10-25 05:29:53	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x30e2cf…
10-25 04:18:54	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between December 7 and December 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0xc6c845…
10-24 23:08:00	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x18fccb…
10-24 14:56:23	Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 song this week?	No	SELL	9	20¢	$2	0x190467…
10-24 14:10:21	Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 song this week?	No	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0x574f6e…
10-24 13:51:02	Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 song this week?	No	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x2266a1…
10-24 09:33:50	Will "Animals" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0xb293b0…
10-24 09:33:05	Will "Animals" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	14	24¢	$3	0xacc557…
10-24 09:31:36	Will "Animals" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	13	32¢	$4	0x9b2382…
10-24 09:31:35	Will "Animals" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0xe7bc6d…
10-23 18:40:41	Will Kate Scott attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xf013f1…
10-23 18:06:15	Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin 24% to 26%?	No	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xdc4d75…
10-23 17:31:26	Will Fabián Ruiz attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xe806e0…
10-23 17:30:59	Will Fabián Ruiz attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x269c0a…
10-23 17:21:42	Will Fabián Ruiz attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x8dc600…
10-23 17:09:20	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x0302e8…
10-23 16:42:38	will fabian ruiz attend the 2026 ballon d or ceremony 20261016121846566	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xf2bb09…
10-23 15:07:39	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x095a97…
10-23 14:56:18	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in September?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xd80182…
10-23 14:54:59	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xd4022d…
10-23 14:54:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	20¢	$2	0x8bea56…
10-23 14:54:30	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x5863b0…
10-23 14:54:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	13	2¢	$0	0x49ceaa…
10-23 14:54:30	Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	Yes	SELL	12	13¢	$2	0x0d32e4…
10-23 14:26:27	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	9	28¢	$3	0x88418c…
10-23 13:35:41	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	SELL	9	36¢	$3	0x57e755…
10-23 13:00:42	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	SELL	13	31¢	$4	0x269375…
10-23 12:59:39	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x7bb581…
10-23 12:59:30	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xa72f5b…
10-23 11:44:23	Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin 24% to 26%?	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xbf8af1…
10-23 11:26:18	ChatGPT Outage by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x7181a2…
10-23 10:42:50	ChatGPT Outage by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x77eb32…
10-23 09:53:33	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.0 on October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x053c15…
10-23 09:52:36	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027?	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xa4418f…
10-23 09:50:36	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.0 on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xc9ce75…
10-23 06:46:32	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xde64fc…
10-23 03:14:38	will the 30 year treasury yield dip below 5pt25 before 2027	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x361d13…
10-22 21:30:36	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xdeb175…
10-22 21:30:09	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x337cf5…
10-22 15:43:53	Will Mjällby AIF win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0x5e87d1…
10-22 15:41:27	Will Getafe CF win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xc966f2…
10-22 15:36:15	Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0x26aae3…
10-22 15:12:05	Will Juventus FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	13	20¢	$3	0xbdd875…
10-22 14:58:32	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	13	20¢	$3	0x50c514…
10-22 14:56:24	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0x51ac15…
10-22 14:16:57	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xd2e722…
10-22 12:34:51	Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-10-22?	No	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0xa8c639…
10-22 11:56:48	Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	8	33¢	$3	0x6ea542…
10-22 11:51:06	Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x9c8cb0…
10-22 11:41:50	LoL: Galions vs Solary - Game 1 Winner	Solary	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x0e0fcc…
10-22 11:08:30	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x82f778…
10-22 10:36:50	Counter-Strike: BIG vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner	BIG	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0x6dd903…
10-22 10:18:23	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0xea1ada…
10-22 09:24:33	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 22?	No	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0xedb736…
10-22 09:06:47	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 22?	No	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0xe9d442…
10-22 09:06:42	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0xa88ec0…
10-22 08:29:08	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xea2b95…
10-22 08:27:17	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xd4d416…
10-22 08:06:44	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0xe850ef…
10-22 07:47:36	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 22?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x23c75b…
10-22 06:59:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0x81749c…
10-22 06:56:33	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x50e64e…
10-22 06:56:26	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xfa379b…
10-22 06:55:47	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xc52208…
10-22 06:08:49	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 22?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x16dc83…
10-22 04:36:05	Will Trump say "Meat" or "Steak" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x1da696…
10-22 03:06:57	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x575b2a…
10-22 02:56:59	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 22?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x0bc3ec…
10-22 02:26:50	Will Trump say "France" or "Paris" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	Yes	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xc78f65…
10-22 02:26:05	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xa0a352…