Serious-Hearthside — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$46.0K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.20K

Hit rate

80.5%

Resolved

109

Trades

673

lifetime

Volume

$430.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$640

Open exposure

$7.69K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 08-30 21:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Other

50% 62% -$6,617

Sports

27% 69% -$10,399

Politics

12% 91% -$1,349

Crypto

8% 25% -$29,970

Tech

2% 100% +$2,362

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		-8,000	-$6,480	96¢	$-7692	-$1,212	05-08 14:51
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes		+0	-$12	70¢	$0	+$12	08-30 21:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
new stranger things episode released by january 14 741	19	$34.9K	35,000	0	+35,000	No	+$50	01-14 14:36
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	6	$28.3K	28,383	0	+28,383	No	+$79	01-30 15:20
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	38	$26.5K	50,000	0	+50,000	No	-$26,475	03-17 02:47
ufc dan6 ben8 2026 01 31	1	$25.0K	25,000	0	+25,000	Saint Denis	+$25	02-01 05:22
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes 363	4	$23.8K	23,798	0	+23,798	No	+$28	01-25 02:41
cbb neast monm 2026 01 19	38	$20.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	Monmouth Hawks	+$20	01-19 19:05
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	2	$20.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	Yes	+$40	07-21 18:16
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08 total 45pt5	33	$14.4K	14,471	0	+14,471	Under	+$65	02-09 06:06
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	35	$13.8K	22,000	8,000	+14,000	Yes	-$2,906	04-07 23:28
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	12	$13.7K	13,926	0	+13,926	No	+$205	01-07 03:29
mwoh usa slo 2026 02 20	11	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	USA	+$10	02-20 22:39
will hyperliquid be accused of insider trading	1	$9.9K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$110	02-24 00:06
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$9.1K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	+$835	04-05 11:23
lal bar lev 2026 02 22 bar	3	$7.4K	8,440	0	+8,440	Yes	+$1,013	02-22 14:13
will japan record a gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics 245	2	$7.3K	7,325	0	+7,325	Yes	+$13	02-15 06:53
will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	6	$6.9K	9,299	0	+9,299	Yes	+$2,356	07-17 19:32
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$6.5K	0	8,000	-8,000	open	—	05-08 14:51
will ethereum reach 3000 in february 2026	1	$6.2K	6,422	0	+6,422	No	+$225	02-10 13:04
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 The Open Championship?	1	$6.2K	6,190	0	+6,190	No	+$8	07-19 17:11
nba bos okc 2026 03 12 total 217pt5	6	$5.8K	11,000	0	+11,000	Under	+$5,230	03-12 16:10
will world liberty financial be accused of insider trading	6	$5.5K	5,000	802	+4,198	No	+$260	02-24 04:09
will france record a gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics 824	1	$5.1K	5,083	0	+5,083	Yes	+$5	02-14 11:01
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	No	+$40	07-05 23:37
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$4.9K	0	5,000	-5,000	No	-$140	05-26 18:10
cbb missr mia 2026 03 20	1	$4.8K	10,000	0	+10,000	Miami Hurricanes	-$4,800	03-20 16:20
will germany record a gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics 835	7	$4.2K	4,166	0	+4,166	Yes	+$7	02-15 07:59
will netherlands record a gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics 349	4	$4.1K	4,123	0	+4,123	Yes	+$6	02-15 06:55
atp alcaraz djokovi 2026 02 01 set totals 3pt5	30	$4.0K	4,027	0	+4,027	Over 3.5	+$4	02-01 13:55
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)	19	$3.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	Thunder	-$40	05-07 19:45
cs2 navi furia 2026 04 14	2	$3.8K	4,000	4,000	+0	FURIA	+$40	04-14 20:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-30 21:52:18	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	248	65¢	$161	0xb0a23e…
08-30 15:25:49	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	65¢	$18	0xbacac3…
08-30 14:30:51	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	65¢	$10	0xd04dbd…
08-30 10:30:39	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xdb1b23…
08-30 09:36:46	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x1a5bae…
08-11 12:31:19	Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 TOUR Championship?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0xadd1c8…
08-11 12:31:01	Will Sudarshan Yellamaraju win the 2026 TOUR Championship?	No	BUY	94	99¢	$93	0xcd32e4…
08-06 12:56:00	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	218	61¢	$133	0xfbf3e9…
08-06 12:56:00	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xe9f8dc…
08-06 12:56:00	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	61¢	$44	0xbe51b4…
08-05 12:01:33	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	29	77¢	$23	0x41e224…
08-05 11:37:06	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x914de3…
08-05 11:35:45	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0xc8b565…
08-05 11:35:45	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x28c8f0…
08-05 11:35:33	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0xa4675e…
08-05 11:35:30	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$7	0xb8a54b…
08-05 11:34:24	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x6fd4b8…
08-05 11:26:05	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x5e8ffd…
08-05 11:21:53	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0xfbac69…
08-05 11:20:23	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x90dd12…
08-05 11:19:21	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0xd30aee…
08-05 11:19:20	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0xce31ed…
08-05 11:14:26	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x692edc…
08-05 11:13:06	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0xe6d0bf…
08-05 11:09:26	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0xd39fdc…
08-05 09:55:18	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0xb27fdc…
08-05 07:04:20	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	14	77¢	$11	0x07a762…
08-05 06:46:06	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x47541b…
08-04 20:45:59	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x58e32e…
08-04 16:30:20	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0x6300e0…
08-04 15:26:39	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x7836a3…
08-04 15:11:24	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0x206424…
08-04 14:00:42	will trump say warren buffett during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421453	No	BUY	52	72¢	$38	0x01f9bc…
08-04 14:00:20	will trump say warren buffett during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421453	No	BUY	48	72¢	$34	0xe222cd…
08-04 13:32:41	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x5e962e…
08-04 13:32:38	will trump say waitress during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421458	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xda7a05…
07-21 18:16:46	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	6,457	100¢	$6,444	0x9b2df2…
07-21 18:16:00	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	13,543	100¢	$13,516	0xf2974b…
07-19 17:11:49	Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	BUY	6,190	100¢	$6,181	0x103a84…
07-19 16:59:10	Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	BUY	157	100¢	$157	0x6ae43c…
07-19 16:58:57	Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0x76471d…
07-19 16:58:57	Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	BUY	285	100¢	$284	0x07fb84…
07-19 16:57:13	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	BUY	2,743	100¢	$2,741	0xd39039…
07-19 16:56:46	Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 The Open Championship?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xe82d3c…
07-18 19:57:45	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	1,500	29¢	$435	0xabbd1c…
07-18 11:18:13	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	3,000	35¢	$1,050	0xd909cd…
07-17 19:32:39	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	Yes	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0x49b399…
07-17 19:31:48	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	Yes	BUY	213	63¢	$134	0xf5a9bb…
07-17 18:57:39	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	Yes	BUY	237	63¢	$149	0x80da94…
07-17 18:56:19	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	Yes	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x897bf6…
07-17 18:51:09	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	Yes	BUY	1,410	68¢	$964	0x80a0b7…
07-17 10:59:42	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	Yes	BUY	7,289	77¢	$5,599	0x08e180…
07-16 12:31:14	Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 The Open Championship?	Yes	BUY	2,854	2¢	$52	0x6ba456…
07-16 12:05:11	Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 The Open Championship?	Yes	BUY	2,100	2¢	$48	0xe077a4…
07-16 12:02:44	Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 The Open Championship?	Yes	BUY	2,130	2¢	$40	0x0095fc…
07-16 12:02:16	Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 The Open Championship?	Yes	BUY	416	1¢	$4	0xe4ea4c…
07-10 23:29:17	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	5,000	75¢	$3,738	0x2ee35b…
07-05 23:37:23	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,960	0x721459…
07-05 12:42:25	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	No	BUY	1,150	46¢	$529	0xf15399…
07-02 15:12:46	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 team to advance	Spain	BUY	1,000	88¢	$880	0xb3c047…
06-26 12:25:53	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	30	50¢	$15	0xf2746c…
06-26 08:39:29	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x683ca9…
06-26 08:27:25	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0x182ade…
06-26 08:21:20	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0x091939…
06-26 08:14:05	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	30	50¢	$15	0xac67f4…
06-26 08:10:35	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	31	50¢	$15	0x9ced77…
06-26 06:56:34	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	16	45¢	$7	0xba1673…
06-26 06:35:13	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	22	45¢	$10	0xa8df21…
06-26 05:42:40	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0xce583b…
06-26 05:02:10	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xa1e303…
06-26 04:50:13	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0xc25b1a…
06-26 04:32:26	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	111	45¢	$50	0xb24745…
06-26 04:08:31	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	18	45¢	$8	0x4d1967…
06-26 04:08:26	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	13	45¢	$6	0xaa0071…
06-26 04:06:49	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	30	45¢	$14	0x3ac25e…
06-26 04:05:02	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	30	45¢	$14	0x556557…
06-26 04:02:20	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	30	45¢	$14	0x484942…
06-26 03:52:26	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	30	45¢	$14	0xf2a545…
06-26 03:52:26	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0xdb5525…
06-26 03:30:10	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	11	45¢	$5	0x5be7eb…
06-26 03:26:52	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	18	45¢	$8	0x72716c…
06-26 03:24:37	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0xb4e9e1…
06-25 17:57:28	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	321	45¢	$145	0xd8c55f…
06-24 13:51:26	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xaeca06…
06-23 13:02:53	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	9	45¢	$4	0x598ec5…
06-23 07:22:19	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xf74c7a…
06-23 06:58:38	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	160	50¢	$80	0xdcdd3f…
06-23 06:56:59	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0x982d43…
06-23 06:56:40	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0xe45a63…
06-23 06:55:08	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x1b823e…
06-23 06:55:05	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	42	50¢	$21	0xe1395f…
06-23 06:47:52	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	40	50¢	$20	0x09908f…
06-23 06:47:49	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	529	50¢	$265	0xb8877e…
06-23 06:44:29	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	35	50¢	$18	0xefd38f…
06-23 06:43:35	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	47	50¢	$24	0xd92aaf…
06-23 06:42:14	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	215	49¢	$105	0x7024bd…
06-23 06:41:23	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	200	49¢	$98	0x91736b…
06-23 06:40:11	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	45	49¢	$22	0xdb21de…
06-22 20:23:47	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	SELL	540	49¢	$264	0xdffa28…
06-17 20:04:23	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	Yes	BUY	5,000	20¢	$1,000	0xae8e9f…