Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$592

Unrealized P&L

-$39

Hit rate

11.8%

Resolved

227

Trades

1,083

lifetime

Volume

$17.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$126

15 positions

First seen

2026-04-03

last 11-05 15:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Other

71% 7% -$505

Politics

15% 21% -$24

Tech

10% 0% -$62

Sports

2% 0% —

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$0

Crypto

1% 0% —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 133 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	No	+50	$42	78¢	$39	-$3	11-05 09:27
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	+24	$20	81¢	$20	$0	11-04 13:02
Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	+50	$20	34¢	$17	-$3	11-01 14:21
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+100	$19	16¢	$16	-$3	11-01 17:50
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	No	+20	$9	45¢	$9	$0	11-05 14:51
Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	+31	$24	26¢	$8	-$16	08-17 12:50
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	No	+20	$6	32¢	$6	$0	11-04 17:45
Will Indiana Hoosiers win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	Yes	+50	$6	8¢	$4	-$2	07-27 10:55
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	+30	$7	10¢	$3	-$4	11-02 15:21
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	+20	$4	16¢	$3	-$1	11-02 06:29
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	+50	$3	1¢	$1	-$2	11-01 22:45
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$1	1¢	$0	$0	11-01 22:03
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	+50	$4	0¢	$0	-$4	11-04 00:51
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	68¢	$0	+$0	11-01 19:08
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	+0	$0	2¢	$0	$0	11-01 17:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 16:17:31	Will US births in 2026 be between 3.56 million and 3.59 million?	Yes	SELL	22	41¢	$9	0xe5c4e2…
11-05 15:48:16	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	SELL	18	13¢	$2	0x143570…
11-05 15:35:58	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x7820f8…
11-05 15:27:36	Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0x94fb71…
11-05 15:09:07	Will there be no next Claude Opus model (5.6+) release by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xeefb8a…
11-05 14:51:42	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x4e17e7…
11-05 14:46:37	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	16	13¢	$2	0x057835…
11-05 14:46:37	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	4	13¢	$1	0x0488b4…
11-05 14:25:15	Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x97557d…
11-05 14:00:30	Will Philippines be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision Asia 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xe210c3…
11-05 13:52:42	Will Thailand come in 3rd place at Eurovision Asia 2026?	No	SELL	4	65¢	$3	0x99a89e…
11-05 13:52:40	Will Thailand come in 3rd place at Eurovision Asia 2026?	No	SELL	16	65¢	$10	0x6d9ce5…
11-05 13:39:18	Will Thailand come in 3rd place at Eurovision Asia 2026?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xcb4ec9…
11-05 13:38:16	Will the Democrats win Iowa in the 2028 Presidential Election?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x2a75f7…
11-05 09:27:28	Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0xe9c1db…
11-05 09:00:39	Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	100	73¢	$73	0xeb7cf6…
11-05 08:53:13	Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	45	33¢	$15	0x2d73d4…
11-05 08:40:00	national guard deployed to election sites by november 15 2026	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x507fea…
11-05 08:17:37	Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0x5f5e94…
11-05 07:41:12	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	SELL	100	29¢	$29	0x7e7230…
11-05 07:40:54	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x940c1f…
11-05 07:33:52	Will Joy O'Donnell win the 2026 Brantford—Brant South by-election?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x9aa4c8…
11-05 07:26:06	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	63	52¢	$32	0x602dee…
11-05 07:04:03	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	37	52¢	$19	0x064b22…
11-05 06:38:51	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xd76b26…
11-05 05:12:04	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0x312a1b…
11-05 04:51:45	Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x222057…
11-05 01:58:22	Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	19	62¢	$12	0x176ce9…
11-05 01:51:49	Will Russia enter Bilozerske by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0x3a831a…
11-05 01:50:12	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xc56aa6…
11-05 01:21:45	Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0x3520d5…
11-05 01:10:19	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0xfc0818…
11-05 01:10:19	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	47	76¢	$36	0xa550ce…
11-05 00:51:25	Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xa6aaee…
11-05 00:48:28	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	No	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0xc98b63…
11-05 00:48:28	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	No	SELL	6	87¢	$6	0x6fb2dd…
11-05 00:46:46	Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0xff6914…
11-05 00:34:10	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$6	0xc905d0…
11-05 00:17:33	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0x628e1c…
11-05 00:17:09	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x7e7448…
11-05 00:13:31	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0xc44af2…
11-04 23:11:58	Carlson's Republican nomination odds hit 5% by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x1341d5…
11-04 22:36:25	Will Gen.G and T1 meet in the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	30	68¢	$21	0x340762…
11-04 22:27:54	Will Jahmyr Gibbs win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?	No	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0x5d63ed…
11-04 22:27:52	Will Jahmyr Gibbs win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x3622cc…
11-04 22:24:34	Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	47	94¢	$44	0x5bc9fd…
11-04 22:24:30	Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xea7bd3…
11-04 22:14:48	Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x5540c6…
11-04 22:12:07	Will the Democrats win Iowa in the 2028 Presidential Election?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x223a2e…
11-04 21:51:42	Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	74¢	$74	0xdd4a3d…
11-04 21:51:40	Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x25078f…
11-04 21:49:30	Will Arsenal record the most clean sheets in the UCL league phase?	Yes	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xc673bd…
11-04 21:49:28	Will Arsenal record the most clean sheets in the UCL league phase?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x3469f4…
11-04 21:38:10	Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	No	SELL	19	76¢	$14	0x46fa77…
11-04 21:38:10	Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x24fcf2…
11-04 21:29:16	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x93fb0a…
11-04 21:27:24	Will Mike Malott fight Jack Della Maddalena next?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xc48b2b…
11-04 21:15:57	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x87f707…
11-04 20:50:18	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 70,000 and 75,000?	No	SELL	0	78¢	$0	0x7dfb81…
11-04 20:50:13	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 70,000 and 75,000?	No	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0x604874…
11-04 19:54:37	Will Brighton & Hove Albion win the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League Championship?	Yes	SELL	50	36¢	$18	0x17dbb8…
11-04 19:54:36	Will Brighton & Hove Albion win the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League Championship?	Yes	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0xf4174b…
11-04 19:22:46	Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x9f62e3…
11-04 18:05:54	Vance's Republican nomination odds hit 40% by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x26635a…
11-04 17:59:09	Will Together be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	100	30¢	$30	0xa248bc…
11-04 17:59:07	Will Together be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xbdaf56…
11-04 17:45:40	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xdc8d29…
11-04 17:29:51	Will Jynxzi win Gamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x07f043…
11-04 16:52:30	Gemini Carbon released by November 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	18¢	$7	0x415223…
11-04 16:52:28	Gemini Carbon released by November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	18¢	$7	0x18fd3e…
11-04 16:39:16	Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0xfe6da9…
11-04 16:32:46	Carlson's Republican nomination odds hit 5% by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xf244f6…
11-04 16:28:45	Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x6e34d4…
11-04 16:27:54	Will SIENNA SPIRO win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	BUY	46	27¢	$12	0x51b981…
11-04 15:30:58	Will Lux (Rosalía) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	SELL	25	20¢	$5	0x37ef3e…
11-04 15:30:52	Will Lux (Rosalía) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xbfc7bd…
11-04 15:20:10	Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xf96b34…
11-04 15:09:54	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?	No	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0x054ac2…
11-04 15:09:52	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?	No	BUY	0	66¢	$0	0xb2e8ab…
11-04 14:46:01	Will Russia enter Bilozerske by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0xf7deba…
11-04 14:34:51	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x7229d9…
11-04 14:30:33	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x9e9a2a…
11-04 14:27:39	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	100	32¢	$32	0x798410…
11-04 13:50:15	Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and US gas not hit $4.50 by the end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0xac075c…
11-04 13:50:10	Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and US gas not hit $4.50 by the end of 2026?	No	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0x97abda…
11-04 13:50:03	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0xddb017…
11-04 13:49:52	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?	Yes	SELL	45	8¢	$4	0x552d5d…
11-04 13:49:48	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?	Yes	BUY	45	8¢	$4	0x064370…
11-04 13:41:28	Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x6938e9…
11-04 13:36:22	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xeb8d73…
11-04 13:02:24	Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x739d6e…
11-04 13:00:51	Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	BUY	26	82¢	$21	0x7bf560…
11-04 12:27:31	Will the Democrats win Maine in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	16	69¢	$11	0xc70fb2…
11-04 12:24:15	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	40¢	$40	0x8df261…
11-04 11:53:22	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x5d912c…
11-04 10:48:57	Will the Democrats win Alaska in the 2028 Presidential Election?	No	SELL	11	83¢	$9	0xa21e19…
11-04 10:29:06	Will the Democrats win Alaska in the 2028 Presidential Election?	No	BUY	11	83¢	$9	0x210d73…
11-04 10:17:12	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x45aeec…
11-04 09:48:57	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x7c008b…
11-04 09:44:04	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?	Yes	SELL	8	20¢	$2	0x402d8d…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	3	$186	100	100	+0	No	+$0	07-20 12:26
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$184	100	100	+0	open	—	11-03 17:54
Will 4–5 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?	5	$180	100	100	+0	No	+$0	08-05 01:11
will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 20260715004553748	2	$175	100	100	+0	Yes	-$5	07-26 14:00
will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	2	$166	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	07-19 15:28
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	2	$158	100	100	+0	open	—	11-01 19:33
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	3	$156	120	100	+20	open	—	11-02 06:29
Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?	2	$148	100	100	+0	open	—	11-04 21:51
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	7	$148	100	100	+0	open	—	10-06 06:08
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?	2	$147	100	100	+0	Yes	-$5	07-21 13:10
Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?	2	$146	100	100	+0	open	—	11-05 09:00
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	2	$144	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	07-24 12:41
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	2	$124	100	100	+0	open	—	07-26 13:56
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	4	$118	100	100	+0	open	—	11-03 23:22
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	3	$103	100	100	+0	open	—	11-05 07:26
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	2	$100	100	100	+0	open	—	11-03 12:31
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	2	$97	50	50	+0	No	-$1	07-21 13:11
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$96	50	50	+0	No	+$1	05-24 00:28
Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?	2	$94	50	50	+0	open	—	11-01 18:27
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	2	$93	50	50	+0	open	—	07-27 06:23
Tusk out by December 31?	3	$93	50	50	+0	open	—	11-02 06:24
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?	3	$92	50	50	+0	Yes	+$0	08-03 02:11
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?	2	$92	50	50	+0	open	—	11-04 16:39
ko quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 28 2026 0pt93	2	$91	50	50	+0	Yes	+$0	07-25 22:53
Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?	2	$91	50	50	+0	open	—	11-02 15:53
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	2	$91	50	47	+3	open	—	11-04 22:24
arm quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 0pt4	2	$90	50	50	+0	Yes	+$0	07-26 18:20
will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	2	$90	50	50	+0	No	+$0	08-05 03:32
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	4	$89	100	100	+0	open	—	08-08 06:46
dis quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 05 2026 1pt86	3	$89	50	50	+0	Yes	+$0	07-27 03:05