Elastic-Bonsai — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

77.2%

Resolved

286

Trades

631

lifetime

Volume

$8.21K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-16 09:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Other

67% 81% +$1

Crypto

23% 82% +$0

Politics

7% 70% +$0

Sports

2% 44% $0

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: Other	No		+6	$6	100¢	$6	$0	10-16 09:47
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No		-2	-$2	99¢	$-2	+$0	05-03 14:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ethereum above 2000 on july 6 2026	4	$104	52	52	+0	No	$0	07-06 02:50
Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?	6	$86	43	43	+0	No	+$0	05-18 21:04
bitcoin above 54k on july 3 2026	4	$80	40	40	+0	Yes	+$0	07-02 16:03
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on May 23?	3	$63	44	19	+26	No	+$0	05-23 01:13
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 3?	3	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	06-03 06:15
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on July 3?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	07-03 03:35
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on May 22?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-22 09:18
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-31 06:01
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 11?	4	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-10 17:24
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 2?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-02 11:42
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on July 4?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-04 00:31
Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 18m?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-13 05:11
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 3?	6	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-03 08:46
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-31 21:56
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on May 27?	4	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-27 09:32
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 27?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-27 23:45
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 26?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	05-25 14:23
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 10?	3	$55	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-10 02:01
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	3	$55	32	23	+9	No	$0	05-22 05:23
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25?	5	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-25 16:51
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga?	1	$54	0	54	-54	No	$0	01-03 05:19
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	$0	02-01 15:04
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24?	2	$54	27	27	+0	Yes	+$0	05-24 14:16
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on June 27?	3	$53	27	27	+0	No	$0	06-27 12:09
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C or below on July 11?	4	$53	26	26	+0	No	+$0	07-10 22:36
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24?	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	$0	05-25 03:21
Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026	2	$51	26	26	+0	No	+$0	07-01 03:35
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$51	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-19 12:51
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 1?	2	$51	25	25	+0	No	+$0	07-01 05:41
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on July 15?	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	$0	07-14 16:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 09:47:25	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xb4cc89…
10-14 14:38:09	Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb7069f…
10-14 14:37:16	Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xbdfdff…
10-12 03:16:35	Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe444ad…
10-05 14:56:05	Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd0060d…
10-05 14:55:08	Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x55af95…
10-05 14:54:17	Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0x195cf3…
10-05 14:53:23	Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$3	0xf4d9a6…
10-05 14:52:29	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x8b4d2f…
10-05 14:51:35	Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x0223c3…
10-04 11:04:38	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xf4ed21…
09-23 07:10:52	Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x11c06f…
09-21 15:18:01	Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x51761a…
09-15 12:43:33	Will CF Montréal win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xa352d4…
09-15 12:42:18	Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x1fdad6…
09-15 12:41:04	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xccb33f…
09-15 12:39:51	Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x96b7ee…
09-15 12:38:40	Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xde4340…
09-05 14:55:37	Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2eeecd…
09-01 03:40:34	Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x815518…
08-27 15:30:58	Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe7edbf…
08-25 18:03:42	Will CF Montréal win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd455f2…
08-24 22:06:10	Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x11e551…
08-11 11:31:30	Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf575a2…
08-02 07:33:51	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x429b7d…
07-31 14:43:57	Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2c406d…
07-27 07:06:46	Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd25a1d…
07-16 04:37:38	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on July 16?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xfb6321…
07-15 16:14:20	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on July 16?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x987f25…
07-15 05:39:13	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 15?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x58dd5a…
07-14 16:25:23	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C or below on July 14?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xd8826b…
07-14 16:23:49	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on July 15?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x5a45a1…
07-14 14:13:11	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on July 15?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xb76506…
07-14 13:07:32	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 15?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x517b9c…
07-14 11:09:13	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C or below on July 14?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x1d4fa9…
07-14 09:53:35	bitcoin above 66k on july 14 2026	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xfd130b…
07-14 09:52:04	bitcoin above 56k on july 15 2026	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x35fc94…
07-14 09:16:40	bitcoin above 66k on july 14 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x4e3c54…
07-14 07:24:58	bitcoin above 56k on july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x1798d1…
07-13 19:46:56	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 13?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x4ded4d…
07-13 15:46:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on July 14?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xd5c0f6…
07-13 12:31:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 13?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x744c77…
07-13 10:53:56	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 13?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x639b2d…
07-13 10:52:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on July 14?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x2270f7…
07-13 09:53:01	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 13?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x00861d…
07-13 06:34:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on July 14?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xd572a3…
07-13 05:11:16	Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 18m?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x208468…
07-13 03:44:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on July 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd5e356…
07-13 02:33:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xaf0b55…
07-13 02:33:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7c7c4a…
07-13 02:32:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0a3759…
07-12 23:33:26	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x6930bc…
07-12 23:15:38	will bitcoin dip to 60k july 6 12 2026	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xc5d727…
07-12 21:13:50	Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 18m?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x9ff54a…
07-12 20:59:08	will bitcoin dip to 60k july 6 12 2026	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xb6c499…
07-12 20:27:23	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x69bc6c…
07-12 20:12:17	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x946fba…
07-12 19:37:25	will bitcoin dip to 60k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x3eec13…
07-12 16:44:25	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x376dc6…
07-12 16:19:38	bitcoin above 68k on july 13 2026	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xee2d4f…
07-12 14:47:58	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x90461e…
07-12 13:54:55	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x3b55b6…
07-12 13:09:55	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 13?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x776a55…
07-12 08:49:50	bitcoin above 68k on july 13 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x52616b…
07-12 02:09:05	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 12?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x2da305…
07-12 01:55:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 12?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x4c14ba…
07-12 00:06:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 12?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x6b9803…
07-11 20:45:53	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 12?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3874c5…
07-11 20:31:04	will bitcoin reach 68k on july 11	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xf0c93c…
07-11 20:29:25	will ethereum dip to 1600 july 6 12 2026	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x1a705a…
07-11 18:19:41	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 12?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x69edea…
07-11 18:18:19	will bitcoin reach 68k on july 11	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x288c0d…
07-11 18:15:28	will ethereum dip to 1600 july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x3bb2f9…
07-11 18:14:55	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 12?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x51b560…
07-11 16:54:07	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 12?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x1a5fad…
07-11 15:27:19	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 12?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x71f9fd…
07-11 14:26:37	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 11?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x4e60ab…
07-11 14:09:40	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 12?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xba4c0b…
07-11 14:02:37	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on July 11?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$22	0xe4d262…
07-11 12:55:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 11?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xef97f7…
07-11 11:21:05	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 12?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xa1f8d3…
07-11 09:30:41	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on July 11?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$22	0x909b71…
07-11 06:54:38	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 11?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xcc26a6…
07-11 06:26:25	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 38°C on July 11?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$7	0x4b58f7…
07-11 06:24:53	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C or higher on July 11?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xa93f87…
07-11 04:51:14	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C or higher on July 11?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xfaae6a…
07-11 01:36:40	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x9888b2…
07-11 00:54:19	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 11?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x416607…
07-11 00:04:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 11?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xb41ea4…
07-10 23:56:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 38°C on July 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0xd11f81…
07-10 22:36:53	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C or below on July 11?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x7e66bd…
07-10 22:13:41	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C or below on July 11?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xa5258b…
07-10 22:05:43	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x75e5f8…
07-10 22:04:08	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C or below on July 11?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xdc7a32…
07-10 18:27:22	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C or below on July 11?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xb0c30c…
07-10 17:39:05	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 11?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$16	0xb7d2ad…
07-10 17:24:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 11?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa66c49…
07-10 17:23:44	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 11?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf939eb…
07-10 17:22:44	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 11?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x238adb…
07-10 17:01:05	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x9e9a3b…