Flippant-Mud-Lever — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$523

Unrealized P&L

-$250

Hit rate

85.2%

Resolved

Trades

505

lifetime

Volume

$295.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$585

Open exposure

$144

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 10-28 13:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Politics

41% 67% +$3,632

Other

36% 63% -$8,996

Crypto

15% 71% +$5,892

Sports

5% 50% -$6

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+99,658	$353	0¢	$100	-$254	10-26 17:05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+2,670	$122	2¢	$44	-$78	10-23 13:19
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	+0	-$81	2¢	$0	+$81	10-08 11:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	2	$26.6K	15,000	15,000	+0	open	—	08-10 11:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	9	$22.5K	17,800	17,800	+0	No	+$5,965	06-01 12:33
Trump renames AI by September 30?	18	$19.8K	12,811	12,811	+0	Yes	+$375	09-29 21:24
will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	32	$16.8K	14,259	14,259	+0	No	+$1,311	06-14 19:43
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$15.0K	15,015	0	+15,015	No	+$15	07-29 18:00
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	27	$14.1K	23,332	23,332	+0	open	—	10-27 20:04
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$13.9K	10,381	10,381	+0	No	-$170	07-15 21:03
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	3	$13.4K	7,415	7,415	+0	Yes	+$1,398	07-13 15:31
Epstein client list released by June 30?	3	$12.1K	6,120	6,120	+0	No	+$52	06-18 01:21
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	78	$10.4K	8,793	2,500	+6,293	Yes	+$407	06-01 11:59
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase September 8-14?	3	$10.3K	5,194	5,194	-0	No	+$47	09-14 12:35
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	19	$10.3K	5,413	5,413	+0	No	+$316	05-18 19:27
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	2	$9.4K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	+$560	05-15 20:20
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	29	$9.2K	240,109	60,170	+179,939	No	-$7,189	06-04 18:06
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	5	$8.8K	5,000	5,000	-0	Yes	+$982	06-18 20:01
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	14	$7.8K	5,245	2,727	+2,518	Yes	+$124	05-13 11:05
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	15	$7.3K	6,444	1,186	+5,258	Yes	+$226	05-14 17:20
iran closes its airspace by june 8	4	$6.5K	4,500	4,500	+0	Yes	+$713	06-07 20:48
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	4	$6.0K	3,013	3,013	+0	Yes	+$4	06-17 20:59
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	5	$5.0K	2,505	2,505	+0	Yes	+$0	05-19 17:37
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	7	$4.4K	9,207	9,207	+0	No	+$18	06-21 12:31
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	33	$4.4K	3,496	3,496	+0	open	—	10-26 11:23
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	3	$3.7K	3,837	3,837	+0	open	—	10-26 13:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$3.2K	14,000	14,000	+0	No	-$91	06-22 17:20
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$3.0K	3,009	0	+3,009	Yes	+$9	06-17 18:00
Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?	8	$2.9K	1,714	1,714	+0	open	—	09-15 19:26
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	5	$2.5K	3,029	19	+3,010	Yes	-$2,500	05-14 18:11
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	3	$2.2K	5,599	5,599	+0	Yes	+$163	07-07 11:11
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	3	$2.2K	2,247	0	+2,247	Yes	+$67	06-21 11:49
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	7	$2.2K	27,853	3,312	+24,541	No	-$1,969	06-19 13:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 13:40:49	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 20-26?	No	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0xd27bdf…
10-27 20:04:06	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	2,194	29¢	$636	0x5ecc86…
10-27 20:02:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	867	36¢	$312	0x36f6da…
10-27 20:02:12	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	193	36¢	$69	0xb14086…
10-27 20:02:12	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,000	36¢	$360	0x581477…
10-27 20:02:12	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	28	36¢	$10	0x26eca3…
10-27 20:02:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	28	36¢	$10	0xa671a8…
10-27 20:02:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	83	36¢	$30	0x4a47d0…
10-27 20:02:06	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	42	36¢	$15	0xfcc820…
10-27 20:02:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	9	36¢	$3	0xf4d141…
10-27 20:02:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	6,427	36¢	$2,314	0x4cf530…
10-27 20:01:54	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	65	36¢	$23	0x6e8e3e…
10-27 20:01:54	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	139	36¢	$50	0x51a6ea…
10-27 20:01:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	27	36¢	$10	0x9fd26e…
10-27 20:01:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	8,912	35¢	$3,119	0x9b2fd7…
10-27 20:01:42	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	78	35¢	$27	0xa65021…
10-27 20:01:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	2,111	35¢	$739	0xc88e0c…
10-27 20:01:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0xe40f31…
10-27 20:01:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	31	40¢	$13	0xace7d9…
10-27 20:01:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1	40¢	$1	0x6def91…
10-27 20:01:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	75	40¢	$30	0x3b678b…
10-27 20:01:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1	40¢	$1	0x08c09f…
10-27 20:01:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	16	40¢	$6	0x03273d…
10-27 20:01:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,000	40¢	$400	0xa3b5b5…
10-27 20:01:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1	40¢	$1	0x7723a1…
10-27 20:00:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,342	26¢	$349	0xf1e2d4…
10-27 20:00:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	21,781	25¢	$5,472	0x7c935b…
10-27 20:00:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	209	26¢	$54	0x40323c…
10-26 17:05:02	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0xaaeb3f…
10-26 13:22:11	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	SELL	3,591	19¢	$682	0x081176…
10-26 13:22:05	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	SELL	246	19¢	$47	0xb03c7d…
10-26 13:21:39	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3,837	78¢	$3,000	0x79aa50…
10-26 11:56:36	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 20-26?	No	BUY	80	73¢	$58	0x595bf6…
10-26 11:28:21	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99,664	0¢	$353	0x927f22…
10-26 11:23:17	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	979	67¢	$656	0xc68fd4…
10-26 11:17:17	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	145	64¢	$93	0xe665ce…
10-26 11:17:17	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	281	66¢	$185	0x54e24a…
10-26 00:57:54	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0xeee89f…
10-25 23:27:15	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	64¢	$48	0x8bf65f…
10-25 23:25:20	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0xc7cab6…
10-25 23:23:26	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	64¢	$8	0x0ff1a2…
10-25 23:11:50	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0x85daa1…
10-25 22:45:23	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xe36e69…
10-25 22:43:29	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0x1484b2…
10-25 22:41:09	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0x3df618…
10-25 22:35:09	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0xc0c93e…
10-25 22:32:57	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0x3ccd6d…
10-25 22:27:29	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	64¢	$16	0xc4c128…
10-25 22:25:18	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	64¢	$12	0x68e1b2…
10-25 22:23:08	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0x295801…
10-25 22:21:12	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	64¢	$11	0x9ce514…
10-25 22:18:47	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	64¢	$15	0x2e7169…
10-25 22:16:41	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	98	64¢	$62	0x56a9aa…
10-25 22:14:00	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	64¢	$10	0x67e2fa…
10-25 22:11:33	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	64¢	$10	0x0025fc…
10-25 22:09:32	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	64¢	$8	0xdc85a0…
10-25 22:05:27	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	64¢	$8	0x196c65…
10-25 22:05:09	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	88	64¢	$56	0xe482ba…
10-25 22:02:50	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,170	64¢	$1,399	0xe23daf…
10-25 22:02:42	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x8d33be…
10-25 22:02:41	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,316	56¢	$733	0x6f3677…
10-23 13:19:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	176	5¢	$9	0x963889…
10-23 13:19:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	427	5¢	$22	0x0b60c4…
10-13 07:12:56	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 6-12?	Yes	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x86b958…
10-12 11:56:12	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 6-12?	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xec01df…
10-10 14:21:13	Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?	Yes	SELL	25	12¢	$3	0x2227b3…
10-10 14:21:10	Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?	Yes	SELL	105	12¢	$13	0x150424…
10-09 11:48:55	Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?	Yes	BUY	260	10¢	$26	0x616b1d…
10-09 11:23:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,273	5¢	$152	0xe4382e…
10-08 11:47:12	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,190	9¢	$107	0xa47a59…
10-08 11:46:48	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x0ae6ca…
10-08 11:46:44	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0xd9bcb3…
10-08 11:46:38	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	196	9¢	$18	0x21bda0…
10-08 11:46:35	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x38a52d…
10-08 11:46:33	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x78aef8…
10-08 11:46:33	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x3bb5ab…
10-05 20:48:16	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0x2e878b…
10-05 17:17:56	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	222	9¢	$20	0x8e8d01…
10-05 17:01:26	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	56	9¢	$5	0x3ce82c…
10-05 16:59:55	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	500	9¢	$45	0xae640a…
10-05 16:58:25	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	89	9¢	$8	0x3a937b…
10-05 16:58:22	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0xecf44d…
10-05 16:58:22	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	56	9¢	$5	0xcf99f4…
10-05 16:58:22	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x7321ab…
10-05 16:58:22	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	12	9¢	$1	0x388689…
10-05 16:58:20	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x1e7b88…
10-05 15:47:37	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	169	8¢	$13	0x60fcef…
10-05 15:43:26	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0xc46ad6…
10-05 15:14:32	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xa5db89…
10-05 15:14:32	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x231d93…
10-05 15:14:31	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	195	8¢	$16	0x49d4de…
10-05 15:14:31	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x0c3bbc…
10-05 13:38:10	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	62	8¢	$5	0xaf0437…
10-05 13:35:08	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	60	8¢	$5	0x75acc0…
10-05 13:26:37	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,412	8¢	$113	0xb223ab…
10-05 13:16:58	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0x28729f…
10-05 13:16:47	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0xf29680…
10-05 12:51:04	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	113	8¢	$9	0x5387c9…
10-01 11:07:14	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x831d13…
10-01 11:07:08	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x05c8b9…