Ideal-Trustee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10.1K

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

88.0%

Resolved

108

Trades

236

lifetime

Volume

$112.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$475

Open exposure

$23

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-15

last 08-07 15:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Politics

53% 76% -$8,587

Other

29% 73% -$1,274

Crypto

17% 100% +$80

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% 0% -$300

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-07).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No		+23	$22	98¢	$23	+$1	05-17 19:01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No		+0	-$2	82¢	$0	+$2	05-21 15:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$10.0K	11,236	0	+11,236	Yes	-$10,000	02-26 16:40
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	1	$9.0K	9,128	0	+9,128	No	+$128	02-25 12:19
will israel strike gaza on february 16 2026	8	$7.4K	7,495	0	+7,495	No	+$64	02-18 22:08
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	1	$6.0K	6,067	0	+6,067	No	+$67	02-25 00:52
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	3	$4.4K	4,427	4,427	+0	Yes	+$383	02-25 16:12
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$4.1K	2,632	2,632	+0	Yes	+$132	02-25 11:29
bitcoin above 66k on february 24	2	$3.9K	3,906	0	+3,906	No	+$6	02-24 16:31
atp fonseca monteir 2026 02 17	1	$3.9K	3,940	0	+3,940	Fonseca	+$40	02-18 00:07
bitcoin above 66k on february 16	1	$3.8K	3,833	0	+3,833	Yes	+$4	02-16 16:40
lal bar lev 2026 02 22 lev	1	$3.7K	3,758	0	+3,758	No	+$8	02-22 16:04
will wuthering heights opening weekend box office be less than 39m	4	$3.4K	3,486	0	+3,486	Yes	+$38	02-17 19:30
bitcoin above 66k on february 17	1	$3.3K	3,302	0	+3,302	Yes	+$7	02-17 16:32
donald trump of truth social posts february 13 february 20 180 199	1	$3.0K	3,003	0	+3,003	No	+$3	02-20 11:34
bitcoin above 64k on february 19	1	$3.0K	3,003	0	+3,003	Yes	+$3	02-19 16:24
epl mac new 2026 02 21 new	2	$2.3K	2,330	0	+2,330	No	+$30	02-21 21:42
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$2.1K	4,088	4,088	+0	Yes	+$117	03-06 17:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$2.0K	1,040	1,040	+0	No	+$29	05-10 21:09
will wuthering heights be the highest grossing movie this weekend	2	$2.0K	1,002	1,002	+0	Yes	+$0	02-17 19:29
elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 65 89	1	$2.0K	2,002	0	+2,002	Yes	+$2	02-16 16:34
bitcoin above 72k on february 20	1	$2.0K	2,008	0	+2,008	No	+$8	02-20 11:42
donald trump of truth social posts february 17 february 24 80 99	1	$2.0K	2,002	0	+2,002	No	+$2	02-22 13:10
elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 0 39	1	$2.0K	2,003	0	+2,003	No	+$3	02-15 12:04
fl1 lor ang 2026 02 15 ang	1	$2.0K	2,004	0	+2,004	No	+$4	02-15 17:39
will israel strike gaza on february 17 2026	2	$1.5K	1,502	0	+1,502	Yes	+$2	02-17 11:20
lal osa mal 2026 03 06 mal	1	$1.2K	1,249	0	+1,249	No	-$1,236	03-07 14:50
bitcoin above 66k on february 20	1	$1.1K	1,118	0	+1,118	Yes	+$3	02-20 16:25
elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 240plus	1	$1000	1,001	0	+1,001	No	+$1	02-15 12:05
microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase february 10 16	1	$1000	1,038	0	+1,038	No	+$38	02-15 17:36
elon musk of tweets february 23 february 25 65 89	1	$1000	1,006	0	+1,006	Yes	+$6	02-25 16:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$1000	1,087	0	+1,087	No	+$87	04-25 07:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-07 15:27:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	379	91¢	$345	0xc79ff4…
08-06 17:30:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	411	82¢	$337	0xe48725…
08-06 17:21:05	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x68aa65…
08-06 17:20:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	345	87¢	$300	0xe13e44…
08-06 17:19:21	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	365	70¢	$256	0x6ffcb7…
08-05 17:46:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	90	56¢	$50	0x0924f8…
08-04 22:17:27	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	25	70¢	$18	0xe0c500…
08-04 22:13:47	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	350	71¢	$248	0x7a703f…
08-04 15:18:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	90	52¢	$47	0xa44582…
08-03 22:30:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	900	69¢	$621	0xa77c7c…
06-12 11:43:15	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	No	BUY	774	98¢	$760	0x734ed6…
06-12 11:40:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x08be9b…
06-11 20:28:16	Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	No	BUY	864	100¢	$860	0x8c3de2…
06-06 23:48:19	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	247	81¢	$200	0x762b3f…
06-06 23:47:54	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	153	65¢	$100	0x7be3a5…
06-06 23:44:43	Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	308	3¢	$9	0xd466bf…
06-06 23:41:15	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	70	28¢	$20	0x1149af…
06-06 23:13:15	Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	308	6¢	$20	0x2a4cc3…
06-06 23:04:52	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0x580d4b…
06-06 22:43:07	Will "David" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	SELL	211	2¢	$4	0x8880f2…
06-06 22:40:01	Will "David" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	211	7¢	$15	0xefe343…
06-06 22:06:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	84¢	$28	0xfbb595…
06-06 21:10:30	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x0b8beb…
06-06 20:08:00	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	19	76¢	$15	0x7cc30e…
05-21 18:04:52	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x667282…
05-21 18:01:33	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	No	SELL	617	60¢	$370	0x462e21…
05-21 18:00:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	411	73¢	$300	0xc36d1b…
05-21 17:59:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	68	27¢	$18	0x3de8f0…
05-21 17:44:54	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	27	68¢	$18	0xd2ae67…
05-21 17:44:54	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	27	68¢	$18	0x818828…
05-21 17:44:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	27	68¢	$18	0xe86ad9…
05-21 17:44:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	27	68¢	$18	0xb15c12…
05-21 17:44:50	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	23	68¢	$16	0xe41a56…
05-21 17:44:50	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	28	69¢	$19	0x997f13…
05-21 17:44:50	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	22	68¢	$15	0x79a18a…
05-21 17:33:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	27	76¢	$20	0xcb71ff…
05-21 15:21:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	27	73¢	$20	0x6639cb…
05-21 15:21:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	25	73¢	$19	0x0d05bb…
05-20 14:26:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0xfd6051…
05-20 14:26:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	13	94¢	$13	0xe010bc…
05-20 14:26:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0x4b61b8…
05-20 14:26:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0x35e969…
05-20 14:26:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x8fd643…
05-20 14:26:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0x58c6b0…
05-20 07:41:16	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x88a63f…
05-19 17:05:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	52¢	$11	0xfb1e18…
05-19 08:01:40	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x976a8c…
05-19 06:01:36	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x55c843…
05-19 05:01:41	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0x7b34a3…
05-19 03:06:41	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	91¢	$22	0x67dc6c…
05-19 02:01:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x3c2cdb…
05-19 01:01:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xc93605…
05-19 00:05:23	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	20¢	$18	0x3e78ea…
05-19 00:01:35	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x62a09e…
05-18 23:01:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xdf7789…
05-18 22:42:56	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	SELL	64	31¢	$20	0x3d75f4…
05-18 22:01:31	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0xf8db5c…
05-18 21:01:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x439aff…
05-18 20:27:09	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18?	Down	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x95f11c…
05-18 20:01:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0xe9f22c…
05-18 19:40:42	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18?	Down	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0xf76296…
05-18 19:09:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	26	69¢	$18	0x4958c6…
05-18 19:09:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	26	70¢	$18	0x04c0df…
05-18 19:01:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x23ffad…
05-18 18:01:40	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	64	31¢	$20	0x13beaa…
05-18 17:01:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x9a62b1…
05-18 16:01:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0x8ec0c4…
05-18 15:01:45	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	91¢	$22	0x8829b7…
05-18 14:01:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0x904df5…
05-18 13:01:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26	73¢	$19	0xe68c4f…
05-18 12:57:59	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	130	16¢	$21	0xc46fda…
05-18 12:31:44	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	41	53¢	$22	0xb80630…
05-18 12:01:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0x864b1d…
05-18 11:01:47	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	15¢	$10	0xfdefa3…
05-18 10:01:32	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	19	94¢	$18	0xedad26…
05-18 09:01:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	14¢	$18	0x05a85e…
05-18 08:01:34	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	41	52¢	$21	0x571c32…
05-18 07:02:09	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	23	95¢	$21	0x50ca18…
05-18 06:01:33	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	85¢	$21	0xc9a6c2…
05-18 05:01:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	27	70¢	$19	0x83a8ef…
05-18 03:52:40	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x9f3b04…
05-18 03:52:40	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x7bf801…
05-18 02:20:33	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x222dc8…
05-18 01:59:33	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xd2f668…
05-18 01:23:34	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	SELL	34	29¢	$10	0x42ef86…
05-18 01:23:32	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	SELL	51	31¢	$16	0x0260be…
05-18 01:01:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	27	80¢	$22	0x56139f…
05-18 00:01:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	27	80¢	$22	0xf0b35d…
05-17 23:01:29	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	27	79¢	$21	0x3b4fc1…
05-17 22:06:48	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	87¢	$21	0x09ec39…
05-17 22:01:31	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0xc2e114…
05-17 20:36:39	Ebola pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	24	91¢	$22	0xc746e4…
05-17 19:01:39	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	23	93¢	$22	0x5936af…
05-17 18:02:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	19	86¢	$16	0x54d8af…
05-17 17:01:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	27	81¢	$22	0x81a67a…
05-17 16:01:56	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	89¢	$21	0x114d14…
05-17 15:03:06	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	57	29¢	$17	0xd3c136…
05-17 15:01:56	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xc898b4…
05-17 14:47:21	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	25	94¢	$24	0x370c86…
05-17 14:01:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0xfcba55…