Spiffy-Hesitation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

271

lifetime

Volume

$14.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$53

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-17

last 07-20 12:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

45% 0% $-0

Politics

35% 0% —

Tech

17% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-9

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes		-254	$-9	3¢	$-7	+$2	06-07 18:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	15	$2.4K	1,230	1,230	+0	open	—	04-17 10:56
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	14	$2.1K	1,092	1,092	+0	open	—	05-22 19:42
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	11	$1.7K	888	888	+0	open	—	04-10 09:33
Trump out as President by April 30?	5	$995	500	500	+0	open	—	04-17 12:32
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$987	500	500	+0	open	—	04-29 16:21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	3	$945	480	480	+0	open	—	04-30 05:29
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	10	$614	308	308	+0	open	—	04-30 04:02
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	8	$446	454	0	+454	open	—	04-28 10:58
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$392	200	200	+0	open	—	04-02 13:23
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	10	$263	715	715	+0	open	—	05-19 13:54
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$195	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-08 11:32
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$194	98	98	+0	open	—	03-27 14:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	4	$192	100	100	+0	open	—	05-19 13:49
anthropic vs openai higher valuation on june 30	2	$182	100	100	+0	open	—	06-04 05:22
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	2	$177	91	91	+0	open	—	05-19 15:36
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	2	$167	102	102	+0	open	—	04-10 01:13
will trump visit china by march 31	6	$151	77	77	+0	open	—	03-25 10:05
tyler robinson convicted of homicide	6	$144	150	150	+0	open	—	06-28 06:41
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	4	$134	200	200	+0	open	—	03-11 17:01
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	3	$102	94	94	+0	open	—	05-26 09:59
donald trump of truth social posts march 6 march 13 100 119	8	$97	105	105	+0	open	—	03-11 20:31
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 100 119	6	$90	100	100	+0	open	—	03-23 18:03
trump out as president by march 31	2	$86	43	43	+0	open	—	03-24 15:24
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	2	$76	38	38	+0	open	—	03-26 14:36
will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	2	$68	34	34	+0	open	—	03-27 14:31
andrew tate of tweets march 6 march 13 2026 0 99	7	$62	200	200	+0	open	—	03-11 16:38
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	2	$62	31	31	+0	open	—	03-25 10:06
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	2	$62	31	31	+0	open	—	03-30 06:04
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	8	$60	296	296	+0	Team Falcons	$-0	05-11 08:01
will gold gc settle over 7000 on the final trading day of march 2026	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	03-28 14:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 12:37:49	will bernie say percent or percenter 11 times during minneapolis rally 20260719004357845	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x0201ab…
07-20 12:26:46	will bernie say percent or percenter 11 times during minneapolis rally 20260719004357845	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x344cad…
07-20 12:21:48	will bernie say endorse endorsed or endorsement during minneapolis rally 20260719004357864	Yes	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x123823…
07-20 12:19:28	will bernie say endorse endorsed or endorsement during minneapolis rally 20260719004357864	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x97256f…
07-20 12:18:18	will bernie say climate during minneapolis rally 20260719004357858	No	SELL	16	33¢	$5	0x3941a4…
07-20 12:18:06	will bernie say climate during minneapolis rally 20260719004357858	No	BUY	16	34¢	$5	0xa28172…
07-20 12:17:39	will bernie say supreme court during minneapolis rally 20260719004357857	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xb767bb…
07-20 12:17:25	will bernie say climate during minneapolis rally 20260719004357858	No	SELL	16	34¢	$5	0x32a5d7…
07-20 12:16:58	will bernie say supreme court during minneapolis rally 20260719004357857	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x66e8f7…
07-20 12:16:30	will bernie say supreme court during minneapolis rally 20260719004357857	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x2a5688…
07-20 12:15:49	will bernie say climate during minneapolis rally 20260719004357858	No	BUY	16	34¢	$5	0xf502c5…
07-20 12:15:49	will bernie say supreme court during minneapolis rally 20260719004357857	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xdeb905…
07-20 12:11:13	will bernie say percent or percenter 11 times during minneapolis rally 20260719004357845	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x1706ad…
07-20 12:09:51	will bernie say percent or percenter 11 times during minneapolis rally 20260719004357845	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x0914dc…
07-14 10:29:47	will yordan alvarez record a hit at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714022249819	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xeccb63…
07-14 06:34:58	will ben rice record a hit at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714022249824	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x9f92e9…
07-14 06:24:41	will yordan alvarez record a hit at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714022249819	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x6cb778…
07-14 06:08:01	will ben rice record a hit at the 2026 mlb all star game 20260714022249824	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xa010e2…
07-09 07:00:55	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260707223722047 799	No	SELL	42	41¢	$17	0x29d559…
07-08 12:24:25	will vance say election during milwaukee remarks 20260707201847864	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0xf1ffd2…
07-08 06:24:20	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260707223722047	No	SELL	8	34¢	$3	0x3a7f76…
07-08 06:01:28	will vance say election during milwaukee remarks 20260707201847864	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x1dd32f…
07-08 05:47:50	iran successfully targets shipping by august 31 20260707223722049	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x64407c…
07-08 05:46:58	iran successfully targets shipping by august 31 20260707223722049	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xafe839…
07-08 05:19:23	iran successfully targets shipping by august 31 20260707223722049	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x993405…
07-08 05:18:38	iran successfully targets shipping by august 31 20260707223722049	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xd799ce…
07-08 05:16:47	iran successfully targets shipping by july 31 20260707223722048	No	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x280d4d…
07-08 05:15:26	iran successfully targets shipping by july 31 20260707223722048	No	BUY	19	14¢	$3	0xe077e1…
07-08 05:15:26	iran successfully targets shipping by july 31 20260707223722048	No	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0xbbcfb7…
07-08 05:15:19	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260707223722047	No	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x7c53a3…
07-08 04:54:52	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x8afea0…
07-08 04:54:31	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xb431e9…
06-28 06:41:04	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	50	42¢	$21	0x623a3a…
06-28 06:40:22	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x2c818c…
06-28 06:39:46	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	50	51¢	$26	0x6457c5…
06-28 06:37:44	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0xe4405c…
06-28 05:54:38	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0xb33fc1…
06-28 05:54:04	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0xd7f045…
06-19 05:58:25	will the announcers say qatar during the germany vs ivory coast fifa world cup match 20260618175650875	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x88b6b9…
06-19 05:57:04	will the announcers say qatar during the germany vs ivory coast fifa world cup match 20260618175650875	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xbc4e98…
06-12 07:05:30	will south korea reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149710	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x1a4074…
06-12 07:05:15	will lamine yamal score 2 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932022	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xe8aa37…
06-12 06:55:13	will lamine yamal score 2 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932022	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xc81692…
06-12 06:51:57	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x95bd87…
06-12 06:51:46	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	SELL	7	32¢	$2	0x77d1b9…
06-12 06:51:24	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xf5076d…
06-12 06:51:13	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x9fd116…
06-12 06:49:15	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x365b7d…
06-12 06:49:09	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0x80d485…
06-12 06:49:07	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xb770cb…
06-12 06:49:06	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x14fe9a…
06-12 06:48:45	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x0a288d…
06-12 06:48:36	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	Yes	SELL	9	38¢	$4	0x09a25c…
06-12 06:47:55	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	Yes	BUY	9	38¢	$4	0xf566f0…
06-09 11:11:33	will drake have 3 albums in the billboard 200 top 10 20260602162056895	Yes	BUY	900	1¢	$5	0xc6bfdc…
06-07 18:02:25	Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	700	1¢	$10	0xf03b36…
06-07 18:02:16	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	SELL	354	3¢	$12	0x3f4103…
06-04 05:22:06	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on june 30	Anthropic	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x2e6cc0…
05-31 16:33:39	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x152a48…
05-31 15:49:29	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?	Anthropic	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xad9e51…
05-31 15:46:45	Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	370	2¢	$9	0x9e2b97…
05-31 15:46:43	Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	330	2¢	$8	0x53e011…
05-30 11:20:54	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x7c0c42…
05-30 11:20:33	Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	13¢	$0	0x54c7a5…
05-30 11:20:16	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xe08e18…
05-30 11:20:10	Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	14¢	$0	0x746adb…
05-27 05:42:35	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x5cb9cb…
05-26 09:59:43	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	Yes	SELL	94	54¢	$51	0x3f595e…
05-26 09:58:22	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0xde8058…
05-26 09:58:20	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	Yes	BUY	44	54¢	$24	0x949f2f…
05-24 14:30:43	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x055542…
05-23 17:05:42	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xb7730c…
05-22 19:42:57	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xecb7bf…
05-22 02:47:31	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0xe9f389…
05-20 13:00:58	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x18d1ac…
05-20 07:56:40	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x1bce13…
05-20 03:11:03	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xbcf01e…
05-20 03:10:50	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x2893a3…
05-20 03:10:38	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x000617…
05-20 02:55:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xeeceb8…
05-20 02:39:22	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0x73ec1e…
05-19 15:36:21	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0x3f7368…
05-19 15:01:07	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	91	98¢	$88	0xb9377b…
05-19 13:54:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x14a7b3…
05-19 13:49:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	78	96¢	$75	0x183e80…
05-19 13:49:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x04fd47…
05-19 13:45:31	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2963f4…
05-19 13:10:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x1f1d42…
05-19 12:14:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x23ada4…
05-11 08:01:31	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Monte	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0xe082d1…
05-11 08:00:38	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Monte	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x15daba…
05-11 07:59:58	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Monte	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0xb1d6b4…
05-11 07:59:44	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Monte	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x7f6035…
05-11 07:55:32	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Monte	SELL	250	10¢	$25	0xfe4776…
05-11 07:51:44	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Monte	BUY	250	10¢	$25	0x504b8d…
05-11 07:50:45	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Monte	SELL	11	13¢	$1	0xc39432…
05-11 07:49:44	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Monte	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0xda2d33…
05-08 14:46:34	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	22	5¢	$1	0xf7cea0…
05-08 14:40:26	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	57	5¢	$3	0x31031a…
05-08 12:41:18	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x3c0001…