Spiffy-Hesitation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.08K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

34.1%

Resolved

194

Trades

671

lifetime

Volume

$23.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 10-06 12:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Other

53% 19% -$1,086

Politics

24% 19% +$12

Tech

15% 27% -$6

Sports

4% 42% +$14

Crypto

3% 44% -$12

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 78 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	15	$2.4K	1,230	1,230	+0	No	$0	04-17 10:56
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	14	$2.1K	1,092	1,092	+0	No	-$2	05-22 19:42
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	11	$1.7K	888	888	+0	Yes	$0	04-10 09:33
Trump out as President by April 30?	5	$995	500	500	+0	No	+$0	04-17 12:32
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$987	500	500	+0	No	+$1	04-29 16:21
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	2	$984	500	500	+0	open	—	04-29 16:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	3	$945	480	480	+0	No	+$1	04-30 05:29
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	9	$891	454	454	+0	Yes	-$1	04-28 14:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	10	$614	308	308	+0	No	+$1	04-30 04:02
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	5	$564	300	300	+0	open	—	05-20 01:52
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$511	1,587	1,587	+0	No	+$11	07-12 00:42
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	1	$416	680	0	+680	No	-$416	06-25 14:17
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$392	200	200	+0	Yes	$0	04-02 13:23
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	2	$390	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-27 13:26
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	1	$378	700	0	+700	No	-$378	06-18 14:16
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	2	$364	200	200	+0	open	—	05-08 11:09
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$348	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	05-27 07:16
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	1	$319	590	0	+590	Yes	+$271	07-04 07:12
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	1	$305	500	0	+500	Yes	+$195	06-21 05:27
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	1	$298	620	0	+620	No	-$298	06-27 07:45
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	3	$298	1,190	1,190	+0	open	—	07-31 15:01
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	1	$285	620	0	+620	No	-$285	07-01 05:50
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	10	$263	715	715	+0	No	+$1	05-19 13:54
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	2	$195	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	05-19 18:15
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$195	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-08 11:32
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$194	100	100	+0	No	$0	05-30 12:08
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$194	98	98	+0	No	+$0	03-27 14:31
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	3	$193	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	05-19 13:57
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	4	$192	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-19 13:49
Ben Pasternak jailed?	2	$189	100	100	+0	open	—	04-28 16:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-06 12:32:43	Will Kazunari Domen win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x183f24…
10-06 12:32:34	Will Zhenan Bao win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xe85358…
10-06 12:32:27	Will Hiroaki Suga win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x104ff0…
10-06 12:32:18	Will Jin-Quan Yu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x9695fc…
10-06 12:32:09	Will Eric Jacobsen win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xa90fcc…
10-06 12:32:00	Will Jens Nørskov win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xd06c41…
10-06 12:31:52	Will Clifford Brangwynne win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x32788b…
10-06 12:31:42	Will Jean-Marie Tarascon win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xd5de57…
10-06 12:31:33	Will Peter G. Schultz win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0x079be3…
10-06 12:31:24	Will Krzysztof Matyjaszewski win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x8b7e6e…
10-06 12:31:15	Will JoAnne Stubbe win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x96eb7a…
10-06 12:31:04	Will Makoto Fujita win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x42d6fc…
10-06 12:30:54	Will Michele Parrinello win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	6¢	$1	0xfbdea5…
10-06 12:19:13	Will Henry Snaith win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x1246e9…
10-06 12:04:24	Will Craig Crews win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x64fe52…
10-06 11:40:13	Will Jin-Quan Yu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xff88cc…
10-06 11:39:31	Will Jin-Quan Yu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xa0bfce…
10-06 11:38:19	Will Jin-Quan Yu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x07c33c…
10-06 11:37:40	Will Pieter Cullis win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x344d89…
10-06 11:36:45	Will Zhenan Bao win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x6708d1…
10-06 11:35:48	Will Pieter Cullis win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x4b1abe…
10-06 11:35:42	Will Jin-Quan Yu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x04d4b6…
10-06 11:35:16	Will Jin-Quan Yu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xcbbd20…
10-06 11:34:46	Will Pieter Cullis win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x2a8d05…
10-06 11:33:48	Will Zhenan Bao win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x76f0ff…
10-06 11:33:10	Will Jin-Quan Yu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x4d11e5…
10-06 11:27:46	Will Jin-Quan Yu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xcff3db…
10-06 11:27:06	Will Jens Nørskov win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x3b4b11…
10-06 11:26:19	Will Pieter Cullis win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x458ebb…
10-06 11:25:54	Will Craig Crews win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xcbf7d6…
10-06 11:25:21	Will Clifford Brangwynne win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x66c23e…
10-06 11:24:52	Will Zhenan Bao win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xeac703…
10-06 11:02:03	Will Eric Jacobsen win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd49574…
10-06 10:59:40	Will Eric Jacobsen win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xbee25b…
10-06 10:52:58	Will Henry Snaith win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x48aa61…
10-06 10:52:21	Will Hiroaki Suga win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x01e70a…
10-06 10:52:10	Will Michael Grätzel win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xee8350…
10-06 10:51:30	Will Hiroaki Suga win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xdcbbed…
10-06 10:51:18	Will Henry Snaith win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x62c98a…
10-06 10:49:55	Will JoAnne Stubbe win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x6cbd44…
10-06 10:47:46	Will JoAnne Stubbe win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x90b7fc…
10-06 10:47:22	Will Stephen Lippard win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xc8417e…
10-06 10:45:54	Will JoAnne Stubbe win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xb6beab…
10-06 10:45:28	Will Kazunari Domen win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xadfd7f…
10-06 10:44:48	Will John Kasianowicz win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xcef139…
10-06 10:44:07	Will Kazunari Domen win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xb0ec5c…
10-06 10:42:15	Will Kazunari Domen win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x531559…
10-06 10:42:03	Will JoAnne Stubbe win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	5¢	$1	0x0cdf89…
10-06 10:41:46	Will Makoto Fujita win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xf5d0cd…
10-06 10:41:16	Will Michael Grätzel win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xc9131e…
10-06 10:40:43	Will Eric Jacobsen win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x280922…
10-06 10:25:00	Will Peter G. Schultz win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0xb29ec5…
10-06 10:24:16	Will John Kasianowicz win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe063c1…
10-06 10:23:57	Will Stephen Lippard win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x90b717…
10-06 10:22:42	Will Krzysztof Matyjaszewski win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xda2411…
10-06 10:21:42	Will Michele Parrinello win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	6¢	$1	0x827b9f…
10-06 10:20:57	Will Henry Snaith win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x6855db…
10-06 10:20:27	Will JoAnne Stubbe win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	6¢	$1	0xba5ccb…
10-06 10:19:43	Will Hiroaki Suga win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xf2e6a6…
10-06 10:19:12	Will Jean-Marie Tarascon win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xc860e3…
10-05 13:27:40	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on October 5?	Yes	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0x54f4af…
10-05 13:23:11	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 5?	No	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0x793424…
10-05 13:22:34	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 5?	No	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x59b68d…
10-05 13:20:19	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 5?	No	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x3580a9…
10-05 13:20:16	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 5?	No	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0xf7a910…
10-05 13:19:08	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 5?	No	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x387b33…
10-05 13:15:34	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 5?	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xe9e00c…
10-05 13:14:07	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 5?	No	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xf82138…
10-05 13:14:05	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 5?	No	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0xb5240f…
10-05 13:11:58	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0xa1fcc1…
10-05 13:11:08	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 5?	No	BUY	21	2¢	$0	0xcc03f8…
10-05 13:09:35	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on October 5?	No	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x854a5b…
10-05 13:09:08	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on October 5?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x61fdc9…
10-05 13:09:08	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on October 5?	No	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x2d6607…
10-05 13:07:11	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on October 5?	No	SELL	19	12¢	$2	0x317006…
10-05 13:06:10	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on October 5?	No	BUY	19	10¢	$2	0x967a6a…
10-05 13:01:22	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on October 5?	No	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x5e4f10…
10-05 12:53:34	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on October 5?	No	BUY	14	12¢	$2	0x08e4d0…
10-05 12:52:49	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on October 5?	No	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0xaaad70…
10-05 12:50:53	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x4729b5…
10-05 12:45:32	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on October 5?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x1f3607…
10-05 12:45:19	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on October 5?	No	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x1714e5…
10-05 12:42:04	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x76319c…
10-05 12:37:01	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on October 5?	Yes	SELL	24	3¢	$1	0xdbeca6…
10-05 12:36:44	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 5?	No	SELL	42	4¢	$2	0x41bdb9…
10-05 12:31:16	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on October 5?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xbd039a…
10-05 12:29:29	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xed9c36…
10-05 12:28:44	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on October 5?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x2fbfc4…
10-05 12:26:10	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xb81274…
10-05 12:24:50	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on October 5?	Yes	SELL	26	7¢	$2	0x7e66ed…
10-05 12:24:44	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on October 5?	No	SELL	18	7¢	$1	0x49345f…
10-05 12:24:34	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 5?	No	SELL	15	8¢	$1	0xc516d5…
10-05 12:22:22	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 5?	No	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0xcd020e…
10-05 12:22:08	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on October 5?	Yes	SELL	25	9¢	$2	0x656c05…
10-05 12:21:59	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 5?	No	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0x269ed1…
10-05 12:21:58	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xff6b56…
10-05 12:21:55	will verity score at least 34 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x47a617…
10-05 12:21:08	will verity score at least 34 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	BUY	14	10¢	$1	0x6736d8…
10-05 12:19:22	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on October 5?	No	SELL	2	10¢	$0	0xec136a…
10-05 12:16:56	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x3c803a…