Musty-Friction-Project — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23

Unrealized P&L

+$35

Hit rate

21.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$742

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$79

1 position

First seen

2026-04-23

last 06-01 13:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

63% 17% +$18

Crypto

23% 14% $-24

Sports

8% 0% $-17

Tech

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No		+200	$44	40¢	$79	+$35	06-01 13:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?	2	$49	190	0	+190	open	—	05-01 12:19
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	2	$44	200	0	+200	open	—	06-01 13:29
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	3	$43	200	0	+200	Up	$-43	05-08 06:59
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?	4	$38	165	0	+165	Down	+$127	05-07 15:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	3	$30	33	33	+0	open	—	05-27 15:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	3	$28	30	30	+0	open	—	05-27 14:48
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8?	1	$25	100	0	+100	Up	$-25	05-08 05:34
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?	1	$25	43	0	+43	open	—	04-25 01:25
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5	2	$22	0	29	-29	open	—	05-04 15:29
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	2	$20	43	43	+0	Spurs	$-0	05-07 02:03
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4?	2	$19	38	0	+38	Down	$-19	05-03 09:40
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026?	1	$18	100	0	+100	open	—	05-06 15:05
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	1	$16	64	0	+64	open	—	04-28 08:24
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	1	$16	50	0	+50	open	—	05-19 14:43
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25?	1	$15	94	0	+94	open	—	04-25 01:23
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	1	$15	38	0	+38	open	—	04-28 08:24
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	1	$15	50	0	+50	open	—	05-19 09:31
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27?	1	$15	62	0	+62	open	—	04-26 08:42
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5	2	$14	20	20	+0	Over	$-6	05-07 03:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	2	$14	17	17	+0	open	—	05-27 15:06
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19?	1	$12	50	0	+50	open	—	05-19 09:17
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1?	1	$12	50	0	+50	open	—	06-01 02:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	2	$12	13	13	+0	Up	+$4	05-08 18:17
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7?	1	$12	75	0	+75	Up	$-12	05-07 11:11
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer	1	$11	50	0	+50	open	—	05-30 14:57
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5	3	$11	25	0	+25	Over	$-11	05-07 16:17
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals	1	$10	35	0	+35	open	—	05-27 15:54
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	1	$10	40	0	+40	open	—	05-15 05:34
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 15?	1	$10	50	0	+50	open	—	05-15 04:51
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?	1	$10	25	0	+25	open	—	04-23 09:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 13:29:55	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	BUY	199	22¢	$44	0x9262eb…
06-01 13:24:24	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x200ed8…
06-01 04:51:32	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1?	Down	BUY	18	20¢	$4	0x22fff8…
06-01 02:44:34	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1?	Down	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x160742…
06-01 02:26:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1?	Down	BUY	16	20¢	$3	0xf8acb8…
05-30 14:57:10	Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x4bbba3…
05-30 09:46:12	Leandro Trossard: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	60	15¢	$9	0x7fd4d2…
05-27 15:54:42	Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals	Sunrisers Hyderabad	BUY	35	29¢	$10	0xfed057…
05-27 15:12:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	33	61¢	$20	0xb0523d…
05-27 15:11:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xf76485…
05-27 15:11:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x919090…
05-27 15:06:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	17	50¢	$9	0x68ccda…
05-27 15:05:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xe4521e…
05-27 15:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x6af1e5…
05-27 14:50:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x67b013…
05-27 14:48:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	SELL	30	58¢	$18	0x615f84…
05-27 14:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xa647fb…
05-27 14:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xab7b11…
05-19 14:43:30	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Cavaliers	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x60c989…
05-19 09:31:39	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	Up	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x4c6075…
05-19 09:17:04	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19?	Up	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x21ba03…
05-15 05:34:52	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x35e47e…
05-15 04:51:25	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x795c6d…
05-12 06:44:30	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x5f8272…
05-08 19:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x5903da…
05-08 18:46:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x6ab29c…
05-08 18:17:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	SELL	13	63¢	$8	0xdd2ef5…
05-08 18:16:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0xbe8bef…
05-08 17:51:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0x700d96…
05-08 17:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x3ce48b…
05-08 17:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xc04cb4…
05-08 17:21:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0x4c09f1…
05-08 06:59:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	92	18¢	$17	0xfe6233…
05-08 06:33:22	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0xa50312…
05-08 05:34:23	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x8db358…
05-08 05:34:00	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x4f61a2…
05-07 16:17:23	Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5	Under	BUY	8	44¢	$4	0xbf9d42…
05-07 16:13:54	Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5	Under	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xf3926a…
05-07 16:12:34	Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5	Under	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x81cde6…
05-07 15:00:58	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0x1f744b…
05-07 15:00:54	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x1b796f…
05-07 15:00:54	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x13c1f8…
05-07 14:55:08	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xe6dfc9…
05-07 11:11:53	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7?	Down	BUY	75	16¢	$12	0xf80790…
05-07 03:06:09	Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5	Over	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x559dc4…
05-07 02:03:38	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	SELL	43	23¢	$10	0x366490…
05-06 15:05:00	Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x61cd9e…
05-06 05:13:48	Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x474be4…
05-06 05:13:04	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x07c8d7…
05-04 15:29:14	Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5	Over	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x288049…
05-04 15:28:16	Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5	Over	SELL	29	73¢	$21	0xf2039f…
05-03 11:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x2dcf1e…
05-03 11:55:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0xceb3d6…
05-03 11:52:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x917642…
05-03 11:51:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x86321f…
05-03 09:40:40	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x4f72d1…
05-03 09:07:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xe35da5…
05-01 12:19:36	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?	Down	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0xc9f756…
05-01 11:30:26	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?	Down	BUY	90	30¢	$27	0x108c93…
04-30 14:41:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	53	13¢	$7	0x9bf8b4…
04-30 13:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	79	13¢	$10	0x8d51e6…
04-30 13:37:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x7cf85b…
04-28 08:24:40	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	64	25¢	$16	0xe1c203…
04-28 08:24:32	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	38	40¢	$15	0xb815eb…
04-26 08:43:06	Will Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x13e3fc…
04-26 08:42:58	Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27?	Yes	BUY	62	24¢	$15	0x6e0dd0…
04-26 08:41:50	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x9cb03d…
04-25 01:25:26	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xd3f292…
04-25 01:24:02	Will Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x1ed85a…
04-25 01:23:52	Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	94	16¢	$15	0x7725f8…
04-23 09:38:08	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x1a386f…
04-23 09:37:46	epl sun not 2026 04 24 sun	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x7a6f08…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	33	$27.9K	988	06-10 01:48
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	31	$15.7K	1,069	05-27 15:14
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	28	$102.4K	420	06-09 03:05
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	23	$10.2K	717	05-27 15:14
Zealous-Violence 0xa697…59d5	18	$50.6K	759	05-30 15:56
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	17	$47.0K	2,550	05-27 15:14
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	17	$8.00K	526	05-27 15:13
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	17	$6.88K	1,685	05-27 15:14