Fatal-Ranch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$539

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

44.0%

Resolved

329

Trades

2,065

lifetime

Volume

$11.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 08-20 10:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Other

34% 41% -$26

Politics

34% 43% -$223

Crypto

31% 31% -$243

Sports

1% 9% -$23

Tech

0% 0% -$25

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	98	$627	831	831	+0	Yes	-$235	06-15 06:53
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	75	$482	577	668	-91	Yes	-$41	06-03 11:33
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	67	$424	259	375	-116	No	+$44	05-30 17:45
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	39	$319	172	172	+0	Yes	-$4	06-21 21:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	46	$274	3,087	82	+3,004	Yes	-$125	06-17 10:58
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	24	$226	116	116	+0	No	+$0	06-04 02:46
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	26	$217	253	245	+8	No	+$102	05-30 17:48
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	35	$201	230	230	+0	Yes	+$12	06-13 18:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	36	$196	151	151	+0	No	-$8	06-21 13:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	28	$165	141	141	+0	No	+$25	07-12 09:22
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	21	$161	105	105	+0	No	+$11	06-02 19:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	4	$141	128	127	+1	Down	+$112	06-03 00:00
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	21	$138	189	189	+0	Yes	+$29	06-12 06:22
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	19	$124	788	788	+0	No	+$0	06-12 06:23
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	6	$113	137	137	+0	No	+$65	06-08 05:58
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	12	$110	57	57	+0	No	$0	06-04 02:48
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	15	$102	545	695	-150	No	-$5	06-03 04:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	6	$99	140	123	+17	Down	+$56	06-03 01:14
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	15	$98	61	61	+0	open	—	06-22 15:27
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	15	$98	125	125	+0	Yes	-$2	06-12 14:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	13	$97	822	38	+784	Down	-$22	06-03 02:15
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	19	$89	630	630	+0	No	+$1	06-22 15:26
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	10	$89	46	46	+0	No	+$1	06-08 12:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	12	$85	222	32	+190	Up	-$21	06-03 02:39
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	11	$80	59	59	+0	Yes	-$8	06-13 18:30
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	12	$79	43	43	+0	open	—	06-13 18:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	9	$79	328	42	+286	Up	+$3	06-03 02:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	23	$77	239	0	+239	Up	-$6	06-02 18:09
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	13	$77	55	55	+0	open	—	06-14 06:50
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	9	$74	41	36	+5	No	$0	06-04 07:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-20 10:29:52	Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	4¢	$1	0x855599…
08-20 10:29:39	Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	55	69¢	$38	0x4c5fb3…
07-12 09:22:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	42	95¢	$40	0xcb52db…
06-24 09:17:08	Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xe9b312…
06-24 09:16:53	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	10¢	$0	0xda3ee7…
06-23 16:56:41	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	41	10¢	$4	0x202905…
06-23 13:54:41	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x441e30…
06-23 13:53:58	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	No	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0xe7362c…
06-23 13:43:50	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	61	8¢	$5	0xe63baf…
06-23 13:42:43	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	622	1¢	$5	0x543bcd…
06-23 13:35:55	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0xe27bfc…
06-23 13:02:44	Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9c21d8…
06-23 13:01:50	Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x05a808…
06-23 12:11:34	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	0¢	$0	0xa4e8c9…
06-23 12:09:47	Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4920fa…
06-23 12:09:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	19	54¢	$10	0x4c2b6b…
06-23 12:08:56	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	59¢	$5	0xbbe355…
06-23 12:08:44	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x36b4a4…
06-23 12:08:35	Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x359bd8…
06-23 12:08:25	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0x48c8ec…
06-23 12:08:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	1	29¢	$0	0x18cad7…
06-23 12:07:55	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0x6e20a6…
06-23 08:44:14	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	62¢	$5	0x4eb4f3…
06-23 08:33:29	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	38¢	$4	0xd8dc5b…
06-23 06:32:37	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xe2f602…
06-23 06:32:05	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	58¢	$3	0xbcbe8a…
06-23 04:57:38	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x7fb2de…
06-23 04:29:17	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa70d6e…
06-23 04:27:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	17	29¢	$5	0x774973…
06-23 02:50:38	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x158543…
06-23 02:40:07	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0x9b1696…
06-23 00:31:43	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xb9149e…
06-22 23:06:55	Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xeab721…
06-22 21:48:17	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	138	2¢	$3	0x3a01c1…
06-22 20:58:49	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	198	2¢	$5	0x89d8c1…
06-22 19:49:29	us x cuba economic deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	8	43¢	$4	0xed87a1…
06-22 19:49:14	Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xc04453…
06-22 17:05:13	us x cuba economic deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x1ca75d…
06-22 17:04:07	Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x809b7c…
06-22 17:03:07	Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x71ac0d…
06-22 17:02:50	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	93¢	$4	0xed9304…
06-22 16:47:34	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0x4af827…
06-22 16:45:41	Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5e0aff…
06-22 16:44:49	Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x41392d…
06-22 16:16:10	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	34¢	$5	0x090ef2…
06-22 16:15:37	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0xe81d95…
06-22 16:05:04	Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb3be09…
06-22 15:30:19	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x6c4184…
06-22 15:29:37	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	75	4¢	$3	0x48c27b…
06-22 15:29:13	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	195	2¢	$4	0x1976a0…
06-22 15:27:29	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0xf6ff7d…
06-22 15:27:14	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	60¢	$1	0x8b8672…
06-22 15:26:55	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x810303…
06-22 15:26:22	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0x354b8e…
06-22 15:26:07	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xe16ad2…
06-22 13:54:28	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	68	2¢	$1	0xba0eae…
06-22 11:49:50	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x1f5b38…
06-22 06:42:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	17	28¢	$5	0x543819…
06-22 06:41:08	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x463bee…
06-22 02:55:05	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x63c44d…
06-22 02:54:31	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0x6ef083…
06-22 02:51:11	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	97	2¢	$2	0xa89228…
06-21 23:43:29	Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x1d9b8d…
06-21 23:42:59	Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x3630a3…
06-21 23:42:29	Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x83a768…
06-21 23:41:58	Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x6db010…
06-21 23:41:26	Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xb92c56…
06-21 23:40:56	Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xf6e24a…
06-21 23:38:56	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	53¢	$5	0x2f6013…
06-21 23:08:59	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xbd6c7a…
06-21 23:08:29	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	29¢	$5	0x22db09…
06-21 23:04:11	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xfc6a89…
06-21 22:38:17	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	4¢	$5	0xf373e5…
06-21 21:57:53	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x48185e…
06-21 21:56:52	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0xc50dac…
06-21 21:56:38	Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x12693b…
06-21 21:56:23	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0xd9bc62…
06-21 21:56:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x0647e1…
06-21 21:55:55	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$5	0xf3e397…
06-21 21:55:41	Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0xb293ba…
06-21 21:05:43	Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x4b4190…
06-21 21:04:49	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	11	44¢	$5	0xce59f4…
06-21 20:23:50	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7e3fec…
06-21 20:22:59	Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	SELL	7	61¢	$4	0x8a4207…
06-21 20:20:17	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x93de08…
06-21 20:16:14	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	71	7¢	$5	0xa1545d…
06-21 20:08:31	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	61	8¢	$5	0x6381d3…
06-21 20:03:32	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	47	5¢	$2	0x6653a9…
06-21 19:29:26	Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	7	62¢	$5	0x0d88c1…
06-21 18:22:31	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	5¢	$5	0x0a9d1c…
06-21 18:09:19	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	5¢	$5	0x8653d1…
06-21 18:08:47	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	5¢	$5	0x8b8289…
06-21 18:08:17	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	5¢	$5	0xa7a7db…
06-21 18:07:44	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	5¢	$5	0x10189c…
06-21 17:45:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x1cad55…
06-21 17:37:35	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x681bcf…
06-21 17:12:47	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	174	3¢	$5	0xdadcdb…
06-21 16:48:08	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	143	2¢	$3	0x867b3f…
06-21 16:37:31	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	25	2¢	$0	0x7b803c…
06-21 16:36:40	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x724df9…