Knowing-Stuff — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$58

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

93.3%

Resolved

181

Trades

331

lifetime

Volume

$75.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$228

Open exposure

$11

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 10-21 11:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 117 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 90% +$172

Other

4% 50% -$120

Politics

2% 78% +$15

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Sports

0% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	+19	$10	52¢	$10	$0	10-21 11:52
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+1	$1	60¢	$1	$0	06-02 12:21
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+6	$2	8¢	$0	-$2	05-10 11:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 64k on april 6	4	$4.3K	2,167	2,164	+3	Yes	+$30	04-06 09:56
bitcoin above 64k on march 11	4	$3.5K	1,781	1,781	+0	Yes	+$4	03-11 13:51
bitcoin above 72k on april 19	3	$2.3K	1,152	1,151	+0	Yes	+$4	04-19 13:08
bitcoin above 66k on april 8	4	$2.2K	1,099	1,099	+1	Yes	+$10	04-08 10:29
bitcoin above 62k on april 8	2	$2.2K	1,090	1,089	+1	Yes	+$8	04-07 23:04
bitcoin above 64k on april 2	2	$2.0K	1,030	1,029	+1	Yes	+$4	04-02 14:20
bitcoin above 66k on march 5	3	$1.8K	1,317	509	+808	Yes	+$1	03-05 12:11
bitcoin above 70k on march 18	4	$1.8K	936	936	+0	Yes	-$45	03-18 15:01
bitcoin above 66k on march 16	3	$1.8K	899	899	+0	Yes	+$12	03-15 14:09
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	3	$1.7K	852	852	+0	No	-$1	02-28 13:08
bitcoin above 64k on march 6	2	$1.6K	806	806	+0	Yes	+$2	03-06 10:21
bitcoin above 68k on april 17	4	$1.3K	653	653	+1	Yes	+$10	04-17 14:03
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 28?	2	$1.2K	1,203	1	+1,202	Yes	+$8	04-28 13:59
bitcoin above 66k on april 11	4	$1.2K	601	600	+1	Yes	+$8	04-11 10:28
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 25?	2	$1.2K	1,200	2	+1,198	Yes	+$30	04-25 11:21
bitcoin above 70k on april 22	1	$1.1K	1,157	0	+1,157	Yes	+$12	04-21 00:12
bitcoin above 70k on april 20	1	$1.1K	1,145	0	+1,145	Yes	+$11	04-19 17:51
bitcoin above 68k on april 13	2	$1.1K	1,125	0	+1,125	Yes	+$21	04-11 10:31
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?	1	$1.1K	1,102	0	+1,102	Yes	+$2	05-18 07:58
bitcoin above 68k on april 8	1	$1.1K	1,100	0	+1,100	Yes	+$3	04-08 10:31
bitcoin above 66k on april 6	1	$1.1K	1,081	0	+1,081	Yes	+$5	04-06 09:56
bitcoin above 64k on april 4	1	$1.0K	1,051	0	+1,051	Yes	+$7	04-03 22:24
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	2	$1.0K	1,046	0	+1,046	Yes	+$6	05-27 01:25
bitcoin above 64k on april 3	1	$1.0K	1,045	0	+1,045	Yes	+$14	04-02 23:17
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2?	1	$993	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$7	05-01 01:07
bitcoin above 68k on april 16	2	$982	494	493	+0	Yes	+$4	04-16 14:27
bitcoin above 66k on april 1	13	$930	1,010	0	+1,010	Yes	+$81	04-01 00:25
bitcoin above 60k on march 31	1	$928	930	0	+930	Yes	+$2	03-30 23:24
bitcoin above 60k on march 30	1	$927	928	0	+928	Yes	+$1	03-30 02:54
bitcoin above 62k on march 29	1	$920	927	0	+927	Yes	+$6	03-29 00:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 11:52:14	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x22d79c…
10-21 11:51:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x3b3dce…
10-21 11:47:32	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0xa15582…
10-07 10:26:39	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xe36df4…
09-19 08:19:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	555	17¢	$94	0xea8bd6…
09-11 07:56:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x6e54a6…
09-11 06:54:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	555	18¢	$100	0xf14591…
09-11 06:49:28	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	22	93¢	$20	0x03a0ac…
09-11 06:49:18	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	90¢	$26	0x12ab92…
09-11 06:49:06	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	65	85¢	$55	0x86fd84…
09-11 06:48:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	152	82¢	$124	0xc3e21e…
09-11 06:47:43	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	54	94¢	$51	0x381389…
08-23 11:05:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0x44e031…
08-19 12:09:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0xaa9efc…
07-28 14:10:35	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	24	97¢	$24	0x914b0d…
07-28 14:10:23	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	123	22¢	$27	0x3acbe8…
07-27 14:27:45	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0xdd732a…
07-27 14:23:43	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x213162…
07-25 02:44:46	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x3c6c1e…
07-25 02:43:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	38	83¢	$32	0x7d1055…
07-25 02:43:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0x10be0a…
07-20 14:09:39	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x6e4a14…
07-20 14:09:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0x848ae4…
07-20 14:08:49	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x00b48b…
07-20 14:08:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	38	79¢	$30	0xa759bd…
07-17 07:50:39	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x3e48f7…
07-17 02:44:42	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xd659aa…
07-15 14:33:16	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	102	79¢	$80	0xac0dcd…
07-15 13:53:17	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x34f14a…
07-14 13:49:19	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0xef80f0…
07-14 13:48:08	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0xbbc1aa…
07-14 13:33:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	34	93¢	$32	0x9c3f0e…
07-14 13:33:26	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	47	69¢	$32	0xfd2072…
07-14 13:33:16	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	56	95¢	$53	0x4f3bfb…
07-14 13:33:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	62	87¢	$54	0xe55c72…
07-12 03:33:56	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Switzerland	SELL	1,333	2¢	$33	0x80e0f8…
07-12 03:32:31	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	1,176	4¢	$50	0x16dc9e…
07-12 03:27:04	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	156	32¢	$50	0x6938bb…
07-12 01:00:43	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	70	52¢	$36	0x23e711…
07-12 01:00:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	64	57¢	$36	0x9f67dd…
07-12 00:56:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0xdca7e5…
07-12 00:56:26	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xd16aca…
07-11 03:09:32	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	70	43¢	$30	0xa7a523…
07-11 03:08:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	64	47¢	$30	0xda3f17…
07-10 13:36:49	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	36	87¢	$31	0x422d94…
07-09 00:24:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	60	41¢	$25	0x0aa408…
07-09 00:19:22	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	88	83¢	$73	0x1d03dc…
07-08 23:59:44	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0x63ab61…
07-08 23:58:31	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0x853b26…
07-07 11:34:22	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x5d229b…
07-06 14:11:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	60	33¢	$20	0x27574e…
07-06 14:09:46	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x9b89f9…
07-06 14:09:20	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xe25915…
07-06 14:05:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	63	87¢	$55	0xa91b6b…
07-06 14:04:14	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	42	72¢	$30	0x4b9284…
07-06 14:03:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x5d7402…
07-05 10:20:07	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x4f35d6…
07-05 10:19:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x64fdd9…
07-05 10:18:59	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	86¢	$40	0xb7e885…
07-04 14:11:28	Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xe4530c…
07-03 13:35:22	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x155fa8…
07-02 04:46:17	Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x6b2a47…
07-02 04:44:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x6acda6…
07-02 04:44:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x61aacf…
07-01 13:45:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0x3c96e5…
07-01 12:34:28	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x270f9d…
06-30 13:20:19	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xf337bb…
06-29 16:19:16	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 spread home 1pt5	Morocco	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x3a27f0…
06-28 01:08:08	fifwc cdr uzb 2026 06 27 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xbbe8ef…
06-26 12:42:13	Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x37af76…
06-25 12:08:53	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xc88e39…
06-24 12:44:49	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xc64a78…
06-23 12:47:46	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x82ebdc…
06-20 03:27:55	fifwc tur par 2026 06 19 spread away 1pt5	Paraguay	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x4461a3…
06-18 12:57:32	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xb60f97…
06-17 11:57:14	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 spread home 1pt5	England	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0xeec516…
06-17 11:57:13	Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xb16788…
06-16 12:31:49	Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x7e513b…
06-15 02:39:13	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x271c61…
06-14 05:39:49	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	53	48¢	$25	0xa3bb34…
06-13 11:26:13	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	SELL	167	57¢	$95	0x600a63…
06-13 11:25:39	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xdabaf2…
06-12 13:37:09	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x933d35…
06-09 14:21:15	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x759482…
06-07 11:04:22	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x06ec0c…
06-06 13:33:12	cs2 ts7 bb3 2026 06 06	Spirit	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x7aed54…
06-05 13:47:55	atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05	Alexander Zverev	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x7be7f5…
06-04 13:45:54	bitcoin above 58k on june 4 2026	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x983776…
06-03 13:11:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x359dbb…
06-02 12:21:55	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x781df3…
06-01 12:33:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x22c85d…
05-31 13:16:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	200	97¢	$193	0xed222e…
05-30 02:17:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc6f3ff…
05-28 01:01:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x8c67f7…
05-27 01:25:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xef5374…
05-27 01:24:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x50b89c…
05-26 00:47:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0xea5f2a…
05-26 00:46:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x978808…
05-25 00:46:45	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x8c901b…
05-25 00:44:34	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xc86d8b…